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Review of the the 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast
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Hurricane Season 2010Hurricane Season 2010
Tony LoconteTony LoconteMontgomery County Office of Montgomery County Office of Emergency Management and Emergency Management and
Homeland SecurityHomeland Security
RANK HURRICANE YEAR CATEGORY DAMAGE (U.S.)
1 KATRINA (SE FL, SE LA, MS) 2005 3 $81,000,000,000
2 ANDREW (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 26,500,000,000
3 WILMA (S FL) 2005 3 20,600,000,000
4 CHARLEY (SW FL) 2004 4 15,000,000,000
5 IVAN (AL/NW FL) 2004 3 14,200,000,000
6 RITA (SW LA, N TX) 2005 3 11,300,000,000
7 FRANCES (FL) 2004 2 8,900,000,000
8 HUGO (SC) 1989 4 7,000,000,000
9 JEANNE (FL) 2004 3 6,900,000,000
10 ALLISON (N TX) 2001 TS @ 5,000,000,000
11 FLOYD (Mid-Atlantic & NE U.S.) 1999 2 4,500,000,000
12 ISABEL (Mid-Atlantic) 2003 2 3,370,000,000
CSUCSU ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) Issue Date 9 December 2009
Issue Date 7 April 2010 Issue Date 2 June 2010
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 11-16 15 18 Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)51-75 75 90 Hurricanes (H) (5.9) 6-8 8 10 Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) 24-39 35 40 Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) 3-5 4 5 Major Hurricane Days (MHD) 6-12 10 13 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 100-162 150 185 Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) 108-172 160 195
CSUCSU
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING UNITED STATES COASTAL AREAS:
Entire U.S. coastline - 76% (average for last century is 52%)
U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 51% (average for last century is 31%)
Gulf Coast from the Florida
AccuweatherAccuweather
AccuWeather foresees 16 to 18 named storms AccuWeather foresees 16 to 18 named storms forming in the Atlantic Ocean, with five forming in the Atlantic Ocean, with five becoming hurricanes and two or three of them becoming hurricanes and two or three of them going ashore in the United States as major going ashore in the United States as major systems. systems. In all, 15 storms probably will be in In all, 15 storms probably will be in the western Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico, and the western Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico, and seven may make landfall in the U.S.,seven may make landfall in the U.S., said Joe said Joe Bastardi, chief long-range and hurricane Bastardi, chief long-range and hurricane forecaster.forecaster.
Other outlooksOther outlooks
WSI Inc. in January predicted 13 named WSI Inc. in January predicted 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major . major .
The Commodity Weather Group called for 11 The Commodity Weather Group called for 11 named storms, as many as five of them named storms, as many as five of them hurricanes. hurricanes.
