‘Meat’ing Future Food Demands

Emily Cassidy

Thomas Malthus1766 – 1834

Population Growth is exponential...

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Bill

ions

160,000B.C.

100,000B.C.

10,000B.C.

7,000B.C.

6,000B.C.

5,000B.C.

4,000B.C.

3,000B.C.

2,000B.C.

1,000B.C.

1A.D.

1,000A.D.

2,000A.D.

8

9

7

2,150A.D.

2011 – 7 Billion2011 – 7 Billion

1945 – 2.3 Billion1945 – 2.3 Billion

2050 – 9.1 Billion2050 – 9.1 Billion

1492 – 500 Million1492 – 500 MillionFirst Modern Humans

First Modern Humans

1776 – 1 Billion1776 – 1 Billion

Source: TCP

Crop production can’t keep Crop production can’t keep up...up...

Yie

ld (

tons

/ hect

are

)

Malthusian

catastrophe

Global population growth is Global population growth is slowing...slowing...

Malthus underestimated...

Norman Borlaug

Dramatically increased wheat yields

Was Malthus wrong?

Image: NASA

Growing Demandsfor Food

Growing Demandsfor Food

x2

7 2

4

Image: NASA

Diets MatterDiets Matter

113030

10%10%

million calories per hectareMillion calories per hectare

0 4 821 3 5 76

1 ton maize 1 ton maize

food

feed

biofuels

Calories Calories delivered to delivered to

peoplepeople

Calories available in food systemCalories available in food system

Calories “lost”Calories “lost”

Fraction of crop calories that become foodFraction of crop calories that become food

0 0.5 1

36% of calories used for animal feed36% of calories used for animal feed

Fraction of crop calories that become foodFraction of crop calories that become food

0 0.5 1

59% of produced calories become food

59% of produced calories become food

50% of produced protein become food

50% of produced protein become food

33%

of calories go to feed

ChinaChina

62%

of calories are delivered

ChinaChina

67%

of calories go to feed

United StatesUnited States

34%

of calories are delivered

United StatesUnited States

5.98.4

5.4 66.5

13.5

16

10

People fed per hectarePeople fed per hectareassuming 2,700 kcal per dayassuming 2,700 kcal per day

People fed per hectarePeople fed per hectareassuming 2,700 kcal per dayassuming 2,700 kcal per day

Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2009

Pou

nd

s p

er

cap

ita

Source: FAO

~10 people per hectare~10 people per hectare

Possible people fed per hectarePossible people fed per hectare

0 2 4 6 8 10

~10 billion people~10 billion people

Actual Food SupplyActual Food Supply

~6 people per hectare~6 people per hectare~6 billion people~6 billion people

Actual people fed per hectareActual people fed per hectare

0 2 4 6 8 10

Where do we go from here?

1992 2008image:s: NASA

Ray et al., 2012

MAIZE - yield trends

Yields increasing

Stagnating

Ray et al., 2012

RICE - yield trends

Yields increasing

Stagnating

1 billion 2 billion

Thomas Malthus

What can YOU do about

this?

Increase Calories Available Increase Calories Available by 70 %by 70 %

Million calories per hectare

0 1 2 3 4+

Billion people4+

300 million people

Image: NASA

Diets MatterDiets Matter

Image: NASA

Thanks!Thanks!