Summer 2013

Mark Weiser, 1988ff

Example: "The Computer for the Twenty-First Century" (1991)

“The most profound technologies are

those that disappear. They weave

themselves into the fabric of

everyday life until they are

indistinguishable from it.”

“The mobile phone is the primary connection tool for most people in the world. In 2020, while "one laptop per child" and other initiatives to bring networked digital communications to everyone are successful on many levels, the mobile phone—now with significant computing power—is the primary Internet connection and the only one for a majority of the people across the world, providing information in a portable, well-connected form at a relatively low price.”

"When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks because that's what you needed on the farms." Cars became more popular as cities rose, and things like power steering and automatic transmission became popular…

"PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They are still going to be around." However, he said, only "one out of x people will need them."

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-20006526-56.html ; image via Wikipedia

Gartner: end of the mouse

Touch screen (iOS)

Handhelds (Wii)

Nothing (Kinect)

Search

the

world

Multimedia lives here

Ecosystems

Combining devices, format, services, and business model

Kindle: Amazon store

iPad: iTunes book section

Android: Play

Laminating the world digitally

Media consumption

Interfacetransformation

Media capture

Social connection

Web 2.0, amped

Microcontent increases

Social participation increases

From consumer to user to prosumer

Accelerando!

No good categorical name:

…which sometimes

indicates the future

Horizon Report 2013

Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less

Massively Open Online Courses

Tablet Computing

Video vs social media

Container vsWeinberger

Automation vshumans

Demographics

Great Recession

Hollowing out of middle class

Globalization

Automation

World going online

Complexity of US higher education

Adjunctification

K-12 reform

Serials + monograph crises

Mobile apps

Persistent DRM

Social media’s triumph

Interface transformations

Global cyberwar and surveillance

Star system intensifies

Adjunctification increases (rōninmodel, King and Nanfito)

Sticker prices drop, leading to more cuts

F2f for elites

http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/files/TermEnrollmentReport-Spring2013.pdf

Post-tsunami

Schools are rare and distant

Information is plentiful and nearby

Open content, open access, open source

• Very Web-centric

Global conversations increase, filter bubble pops

More access, more information

Lots of creativity

Industries collapse

Authorship mysterious

Some low quality tech (videoconf.)

Some higher costs

More malware + less privacy

Information prices drop

Faculty creativity, flexibility grow

IT “ “ “

Academic content unleashed on the world

Tech challenges

Outsourcing and offshoring

PLE beats LMS

Crowdsourcing faculty work

Information literacy central

http://www.flickr.com/photos/thales/2782129254/

MOOC provider goes bust

Media buzz reverses

Economic growth returns to US (energy, medical, nanotech vsworld)

17-22-year-old residential niche revitalized (K-12 failure)

Full-time faculty stabilize (AAUP-ALA strike)

Higher education landscape:

Supplemental rather than transformative tech

Logistical instead of pedagogical tech

Academics include tech in old structures (classes, publication

Bryan Alexander

http://bryanalexander.org

Bryan on Twitter

http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander