Outstanding challenges in the study of

seed exchange networks in agrobiodiversity

conservation

Marco Pautassomarpauta at gmail.com

CEFE, CNRS, 14 May 2012

Seed exchange networks: defining the termsIntra-European Trade

of Ornamental Plants (2003)Organic seed

The talk is partly based on this review of the literature

Challenge nr 1: how to keep up with the literature?

from Pautasso et al. (2012)

Agr Sust Dev

A selection of recent

reviews on agro-

biodiversity conservation and/or seed exchange networks

NETSEEDFRB-CESAB

NETSEED-CESAB

Agrobiodiversité et réseaux sociaux

Une approche interdisciplinaire pour analyser comment les systèmes semenciers locaux

agissent sur la diversité des plantes domestiquées

Butchart et al. (2010)

Science

Challenge nr 2: how to stop the loss of biodiversity?

A) species’ population trends, habitat extent and condition, and community composition

aggregated indicators of

B) ecological footprint, nitrogen deposition, alien species, overexploitation and climatic impacts

C) protected area extent and biodiversity coverage,responses to invasive alien species, sustainableforest management and biodiversity-related aid

Web of Science papers on biodiversity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

num

ber

of pap

ers

CESAB (Centre for Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity data)Technopole de l’Arbois (~ Aix en Provence)

3rd Call for CESAB Working Groups (deadline pre-registration 25 May

2012,deadline for submission end of June

2012)

Average time spent travelling in the UK (1930s-1990s)

Schulz (2004) Population & Environment

[CO2]

from MacKay (2008) Sustainable Energy – without the Hot Air

Average temperature [CO2] (a reminder)

Shakun et al (2012) Nature

Fox et al. (2009) Frontiers in the Ecology and the Environment

Carbon emissions of conservation biologists

Sustainable transport of seed (sorghum?) in Kathwana market,

Kenya

Picture: Christian Leclerc (CIRAD,

Montpellier)

Seed potato sources in Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia

Gildemacher et al. (2009) A description of seed potato systems in Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia. American

Journal of Potato Research

Maize seed sources in Mexico

Bellon et al. (2011) Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seedsystems in Mexico to climate change. PNAS

Challenge nr 3. How to study/predict/manage

global change effects on agrodiversity?

Pautasso et al. (2012) Agronomy for Sustainable Development

Challenge nr 4. How to achieve interdisciplinarity?

Kiss et al. (2010) Can epidemic models describe the diffusion of topics across disciplines? Journal of

Informetrics

Hypothetical network of interdisciplinary collaborations

among scientists interested in seed exchange networks

Pautasso et al. (2012) Agronomy for Sustainable Development

Challenge nr 5. Involving stakeholders

Pautasso et al. (2012) European Journal of Plant Pathology

Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia

Abay et al. (2011) Plant Genetic Resources – Characterization and Utilization

Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia

data from: Abay et al. (2011)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6number of links

num

ber

of n

odes incoming

links

outgoinglinks

…

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 2 4 6 8

number of outgoing links

num

ber

of in

com

ing

links

N nodes = 186, N links = 210node ID links in links out

218 1 0314 0 1

135 2 1120 1 1

Network structure

modified from: Keeling & Eames (2005) Interface

random

scale-free

local

small-world

one-way

two-ways

uncorrelated

and correlation between links in and out

NATURA

L

TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL

food webs

airport networks

cell metabolism

neural networks

railway networks

ant nests

WWWInternet

electrical power grids

software maps

computing grids

E-mail patterns

innovation flows

telephone calls

co-authorship

nets

family networks

committees

sexual partnerships

DISEASE SPREAD

Food web of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin, US

Internet structure

Network pictures from: Newman (2003) SIAM Review

HIV spread network

Some recent applications of network theory

urban road networks

Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology

Challenge nr 6. How to learn from network theory?Network

epidemiology

Seed exchange networks

Elements moving thanks to a network of contacts

pathogens/human beings

seeds, varieties/ farmers

Diffusion happens inadvertently through aware

decisionsMain aim of

applied researchminimizing

disease spreadpreserving

agrobiodiversity

Picture from Kaluza et al. (2010)

Interface

step 1

step 2

step 3

step n

…

Simple model of spread and establishment in a network

pt probability of transmission

… 100

node 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology

pp probability of persistence

SIS deterministic model, 100 Nodes, fixed structure, absence/presence continuum

P [i (x, t)] = { pp * P [i (x, t-1)] + pt * P [i (y, t-1)]}

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

probability of transmission

pro

bab

ility

of p

ersi

sten

ce

localrandomsmall-worldscale-free (two-way)scale-free (uncorrelated)scale-free (one way)

Lower invasion threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between

in- and out-degree

from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology

NO INVASION

INVASION

Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks (unless networks are sparsely

connected)N replicates = 100; error bars are St.

Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at

p < 0.05

from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) Journal of Theoretical Biology

0

25

50

75

100

0 25 50 75 1000

25

50

75

100

0 25 50 75 100

0

25

50

75

100

0 25 50 75 100

fin

al siz

e o

f in

vasio

n

(N o

f n

od

es w

ith

in

vasio

n s

tatu

s >

0.0

1)

0

25

50

75

100

0 25 50 75 100

(local) (sw)

(rand)(sf2)

0

25

50

75

100

0 25 50 75 1000

25

50

75

100

0 25 50 75 100

(sf0) (sf1)

starting node of the invasion

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0 2 4 6 8

-1.0

0.0

1.0

-1 0 1 2 3

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

su

m a

t eq

uilib

riu

m o

f in

vasio

n

sta

tus a

cro

ss a

ll n

od

es (

+0

.01

fo

r sf

netw

ork

s)

local

randsf2 (log-

log)

n of links from starting node

n of links from starting node

sw

sf0 (log-log)

sf1 (log-log)

Correlation of invasion final size with out-degree of starting node increases with network

connectivity

N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05

from: Pautasso et al. (2010) Ecological Complexity

Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia

data from: Abay et al. (2011)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6number of outgoing links

num

ber

of n

odes

BuketMugulatMelfaAdinefasHabesAynalemBolentabridges

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6number of incoming links

num

ber

of n

odes

BuketMugulatMelfaAdinefasHabesAynalemBolentabridges

0

2

4

6

8

10

1 2 3 4 5 6number of outgoing links

num

ber

of n

odes

BolentaAynalemHabesAdinefasMelfaMugulatBuket

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6number of incoming links

num

ber

of n

odes

BolentaAynalemHabesAdinefasMelfaMugulatBuket

n = 11, y = -0.25x + 1.91

R2 = 0.29, p = 0.09

0

1

2

3

4

0 2 4 6 8

n = 14

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 2 4 6

n = 9

0

1

2

3

4

0 1 2 3 4

n = 16

0

1

2

3

4

0 1 2 3 4 5

n = 14, y = 0.32x + 1.33

R2 = 0.21, p = 0.10

0

1

2

3

4

0 1 2 3 4

n = 11, y = 0.32x + 1.48

R2 = 0.32, p = 0.07

0

1

2

3

4

0 1 2 3 4

n = 19

0

1

2

3

4

0 2 4 6data from: Abay et al. (2011)

Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia

number of outgoing links

nu

mb

er

of

incom

ing

lin

ks

n = 92, y = -0.37x + 0.80

R2 = 0.20, p < 0.01

0

1

2

3

0 1 2 3 4

What is an organization?

Butts (2009) Revisiting the foundations of network analysis. Science

Network metrics as a function of sampling intensity

Dormann et al.

(2009) The Open Ecology Journal

Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia

Abay et al. (2011) Plant Genetic Resources – Characterization and Utilization

Orbis terrarum, Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa, ~27 a.C.

from http://www.arqweb.com/vitrum/orbis22.asp

from Jeger et al. 2011

b from: http://www.worldmapper.org/

a, c & d: from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica

(c)

(d)

(a) (c)

log

10 s

pp

ric

hn

ess

(n)

(b) Size of countries reflects n of botanic gardens

Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens

(d)

(yr)

Botanic vs. linguistic diversity

Burnside et al. (2011) Biological Reviews

Species-people correlation in Europe

from Araujo (2003) Global Ecology & Biogeography

plants birds

people

spp

Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine

Trace forward/back zipcode

Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site

Hold released

Invasion biogeography of Sudden Oak Death

from: McKelvey et al. (2007) SOD Science Symposium III

Phytophthora ramorum in the UK and Europe

From: UK Forestry Commission (Feb 2012) and EFSA Plant Health Panel (2011)

Species richness of human parasitic and infectious

diseases as a function of latitude

Burnside et al. (2011) Human macroecology: linking patternand process in big-picture human ecology. Biological Reviews

Challenge nr 7. What can we learn from biogeography?

Freeman (2011) Domesticated crop richness in human subsistence cultivation systems:

a test of macroecological and economic determinants. Global Ecology & Biogeography

Scenarios to anticipate challenges to biodiversity,

landscapes and public engagement with nature

Kass et al. (2012) Journal

of Applied Ecology

1) Connect for Life

2) Go for Growth

3) Keep it Local

4) Succeed through Science

A proposed model of on-farm plant genetic conservation

redrawn from: Maxted et al. (2002) Towards a methodology for on-farm conservation of plant genetic resources. Genetic Resources and Crop

Evolution

Selection of target taxa

Project commission

Ecogeographic survey

Development of conservation objectives

Field exploration

On farm conservationPhase 1: Project Planning and

Establishment• Identification of project site(s)

• Project sustainability•Identification of project

partners• Formulation

of project activities

Phase 2: Project Management and Monitoring• Initiation of project activities

• Monitoring activities• Review of project activities

Phase 3: Diversity Utilisation• Traditional, general and

professional utilization

• Links to ex situ conservation, research and education

Conservation products

Product deposition and dissemination

Characterization / evaluation

Plant genetic resource utilization

Challenge nr 8. How to identify research priorities?

Identifying research priorities and emerging issues

Identifying research priorities and emerging issues

Grierson et al. (2011)

Seven means of identifying research priorities

(they are neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive)

(i) reflection by individual workshop participants,

(ii) reviews of the peer-reviewed and gray literature by individual workshop participants,

(iii) informal discussions between workshop participants and colleagues,

(iv) use of email, blogs, tweets, Facebook, and other electronic mechanisms for social networking,

(v) facilitating a workshop with colleagues,

(vi) assigning students to generate material as a class assignment,

and (vii) an interactive website.Sutherland et al. (2011) Methods in Ecology & Evolution

Question requirements…(i) answerable through a realistic research design,

(ii) that have a factual answer that does not depend on value judgments,

(iii) that address important gaps in knowledge,

(iv) of a spatial and temporal scope that reasonably could be addressed by a research team,

(v) not formulated as a general topic area,

(vi) not answerable with it all depends, (vii) except if questioning a precise statement (‘does the earth go round the sun?’)

(vii) should not be answerable by yes or no (i.e. not ‘is X better for biodiversity than Y’),

(viii) if related to impact and interventions, contains a subject, an intervention, and a measurable outcome.

An ideal question suggests the design of research that is required to answer it or can be envisioned as translating the question into directly testable research hypotheses.

Sutherland et al. (2011) Methods in Ecology & Evolution

Challenge nr 9. How to promote a diversity of research methods?

Pautasso et al.

(2012) Agr Sust

Dev

Three results from recent game theory studies

Kaplan et al. (2012) Proceedings of the

Royal Society B

3. higher amount of exchanges in high variance environments

1. cooperation is more likely to persist in an interacting

population if cooperating

individuals are mobile

Droz et al. (2009) European

Physical Journal B

Santos et al. (2009) Journal of

Theoretical Biology

2. cooperation benefits from

diversity in the number of social

interactions and in the choice of role models to imitate

Summary of challenges

1. Keeping up with the literature

2. Stopping biodiversity loss

3. Global change interactions

4. Interdisciplinarity

5. Involving stakeholders

6. Network theory

7. Large-scale picture

8. Identifying research priorities

9. Diversity of methods

Don’t miss the ISE sessions S28 and S10

on Thursday 24 May at the Botanical Institute13th Congress of the International Society of

Ethnobiology, 20-25 May 2012, Montpellier

“Cultural diversity and biological diversity for sustainable development: exploring the past to build up the future”

A forum of 25 researchers selected by the European Commission in April 2012

Please send your suggestions!

marpauta at gmail.com

http://voice.euraxess.org/

Samedi 19 Mai,Mas Drevon, Montpellier, 17h

Acknowledgements

Claude Steck, Freiburg i.B.

Mike Jeger, Silwood

Ingrid Parmentier,

Brussels

Kevin Gaston,

Cornwall

Diego Fontaneto,Verbania

Birgit & Florian Schlick-Steiner, Innsbruck

Mike McKinney, Knoxville

Lorenzo Marini, Uppsala

Alessandro Chiarucci,

Siena

Susanne Fritz, Frankfurt

Ottmar Holdenrieder, Zurich

Peter Weisberg,

Reno

Glen Powell, Wye

Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre, Paris

Tom Harwood, Canberra

Caroline Pecher, Bozen

Life cycle assessment for walnut seedling production

Cambria & Pierangeli (2011) A life cycle assessment case study for walnut tree

(Juglans regia L.) seedlings production. International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment

Life cycle assessments of the US food system

Heller & Keoleian (2003) Assessing the sustainability of the US foodsystem: a life cycle perspective. Agricultural Systems

Genetic structure of a rice landrace in Northern Thailand

Pusadee et al. (2009) Genetic structure and isolation by distancein a landrace of Thai rice. PNAS

Regression model of n of spp per homegarden, Peru

Perrault-Archmibault & Coomes (2008) Distribution of agrobiodiversity in home gardens

along the Corrientes river, Peruvian Amazon. Economic Botany

LAT

SPP

GDP

AGE

FLORA

AREA

SPP

„Wealth“

„Garden“

SPP

„Flora“

LAT

GDP

FLORA

POP

AGE

AREA

SPP„combined“

Hypothesis: Rich countries have rich gardens

Hyp.: Garden characteristics matter most

Hyp.: Diverse garden mirror a rich country flora Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany

Biogeographical patterns of the living collections of the world’s botanic

gardens

Hyp.: There‘s a combination of processes

LAT

SPP

GDP

AGE

FLORA

AREA

SPP

SPP

LAT

GDP

FLORA

POP

AGE

AREA

SPP.48

R² = .22

R² = .21

.43

.21

R² = .22

.47

.01

-.55

R² = .44.19

-.59

-.11.31

.28.30.68

Significant at alpha 0.05

Non-significant; P > 0.05

Biogeographical patterns of the living collections of the world’s botanic

gardens

Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany

„Wealth“

„Garden“

„Flora“

„combined“