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Seminar slides of presentation given by Danny Dalton, MS student at Oregon State University, on 21 October, 2008.
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Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change
a presentation by:
Daniel T. DaltonOregon State University
Department of Horticulture
21 October 2008
The Dilemma of Climate Change
• Defining a changing climate
• Urgency of the current situation
• Effects on plant development
• Conclusion – mitigation of climate change
Climate Change Defined
“Change in the state of the climate that can be identified… by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period” (IPCC 2007)
hprechtb
Georgie Sharp
Enzo D.
Contributing Factors to Climate Change
• Natural– Greenhouse gas
emissions– Aerosol emissions– Volcanic activity– Solar fluxes– Albedo– Ocean circulation
(USGS 2004)
Anthropogenic Factors
(IPCC 2007)
70% increase
• Greenhouse gas emissions
Urgent concern
• Atmospheric warming an established trend
• Clear rise in sea levels
• General decrease in snow cover
• Increased frequency of extreme events
(IPCC 2007)
Temperature
Sea level
Snow cover
1850 2000
• Ocean acidification in response to CO2 uptake
CO2 + CO2-3 + H2O H2CO-
3
• Undersaturation of calcium
• Range expansion for phytoplankton
Pelagic Effects
thinkpanama
(Orr et al. 2005)
Factors Influencing Plant Phenology
Soil
• Texture• Bulk density• pH• Fertility• Moisture
Atmosphere
• Average temperature• Nocturnal temperature• Photoperiod• Precipitation• Composition
(Wiegolaski 2001)
Temperature appears to play the most important role
Genotype-Dependent
• Genetic variation in timing of phenological development
Coreosma blooming patterns
0 250 500 750 1000 1250
Ben Tirran
Amos Black
Nysa
Ben Nevis
Prince of Wales
Daniels Black September
Blacksmith
R. americanum
Lowes Auslese
Kantata 50
Beauty of Altay
Brodtorp
Laxton's Grape
Onyx
Seabrook's Seedling
Royal de Naples
Laxton
Tough Champion
R. nigrum Q 27921
Slitsa
Risager
growing degree-days
Growing Degree-Days
Cultivar
(Dalton)Black currant blooming patterns
Carbon Cycle
(NASA 2008)
Global Carbon Pool (GtC)Atmospheric Terrestrial Aquatic Anthropogenic Total
Atmosphere 750 Vegetation 610 Surface ocean 1020 Fossil fuel 4000 Soil 1580 DIC 38100 Sediment 150 Marine life 3 DOC 700 Subtotal 750 2190 39973 4000 46913
5.5 billion tons C per year!!!
Water Cycle
(NASA/GSFC 2006)
Click here for an animated depiction of the water cycle.
Emission Scenarios
Mean Atmospheric CO2
• 280 ppm pre-Industrial
• 384 ppm in 2007 (IPCC 2007)
836-1050 ppm938-1184 ppm611-754 ppm535-669 ppm
(Animation adapted from Sitch et al. 2008)(Keeling et al. 2008)
(Orr et al. 2005)
Effects of Elevated CO2
Species Impacts on Flowers
Nectar volume Nectar sugar Notes
Lotus corniculatus 60% increase in number of flowers
unchanged n.s. Legume
Trifolium pratense 35% decrease in number of flowers
unchanged n.s. Legume
Betonica officinalis 7.8 days earlier bloom
28% reduction n.s. 27% fewer amino acids per flower
Scabiosa columbaria n.s. 50% reduction 45% decrease per flower
40% fewer amino acids per flower
Centaurea jacea 35% more likely to flower
38% reduction 31% decrease per flower
39% fewer amino acids per flower
(Erhardt and Rusterholz 1997)
Varying species responses to atmospheric changes
Seasonal Weather Changes
• Reduced snow cover• Late-winter warming• Spring frosts• Extreme summer heat• Extended growing
seasondtdalton82
Global temperature increased 0.74 C from 1906 to 2005.Most pronounced in high latitude regions, in winter (IPCC 2007)
• Reacclimation process much slower than deacclimation
• Late-winter thawing induces phenological change
(Bokhorst et al. 2008)
Winter Effects
(Sitch et al. 2008)
Divergence of Community Bloom Patterns
• Spring flowering species tended to bloom earlier
• Late-flowering species underwent a delay in flowering (Sherry et al. 2007)
Aggregate Life History
• Not all phenological events will respond equally to all environmental cues
• New community dynamics in competition for resources
(Post et al. 2008)
Aggregate Life History
• Chickweed – No significant
change
• Gray willow and dwarf birch– ALH significantly
shorter and earlier
(Post et al. 2008)
Conclusions
• Clear evidence of a changing climate– Driven by anthropogenic causes
• Phenology studies as both evidence and a predictor of future change
• A call for immediate action
Resources and Phenological Networks
Phenological NetworksProject Budburst: http://www.windows.ucar.edu/citizen_science/budburst/index.htmlUSA National Phenology Network: http://www.usanpn.org/NatureWatch (Canada): http://www.naturewatch.ca/english/Nature’s Calendar (UK): http://www.naturescalendar.org.uk/
Climate Watch NetworksGLOBE: http://www.globe.gov/rThe Alliance for Climate Protection: http://www.wecansolveit.org/NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch
General WebsitesFlickr: http://www.flickr.comWikipedia: http://www.wikipedia.com
Articles CitedBokhorst, S., J.W. Bjerke, F.W. Bowles, J. Melillo, T.V. Callaghan, and G.K. Phoenix. 2008. Impacts of Extreme Winter
Warming in the Sub-Arctic: growing season responses of dwarf shrub heathland. Global Change Biology 14: 1-10
Erhardt, A. and H-P. Rusterholz. 1997. Effects of Elevated CO2 on Flowering Phenology and Nectar Production. Acta Oecologica 18(3): 249-253
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Allali, A., R. Bjariu, S. Diaz, I. Elgizouli, D. Griggs, D. Hawkins, O. Hohmeyer, B.P. Jallow, L. Kajfez-Bogataj, N. Leary, H. Lee, and D. Wratt, eds. Accessed 10/8/2008 online: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf
Orr, J.C., V.J. Fabry, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, S.C. Doney, R.A. Feely, A. Gnanadesikan, N. Gruber, A. Ishida, F. Joos, R.M. Key, K. Lindsay, E. Maier-Reimer, R. Matear, P. Monfray, A. Mouchet, R.G. Najjar, G-K. Plattner, K.B. Rodgers, C.L. Sabine, J.L. Sarmiento, R. Schlitzer, R.D. Slater, I.J. Totterdell, M-F. Weirig, Y. Yamanaka, and A. Yool. 2005. Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437 (7059):681-686
Post, E.S., C. Pedersen, C.C. Wilmers, and M.C. Forchhammer. 2008. Phenological Sequences Reveal Aggregate Life History Response to Climatic Warming. Ecology 89(2): 363-370
Sherry, R.A., X. Zhou, S. Gu, J.A. Arnone III, D.S. Schimel, P.S. Verburg, L.L. Wallace, and Y. Luo. 2007. Divergence of Reproductive Phenology Under Climatic Warming. PNAS 104(1): 198-202
Sitch, S., C. Huntingford, N. Gedney, P.E. Levy, M. Lomas, S.L. Piao, R. Betts, P. Ciais, P. Cox, P. Friedlingstein, C.D. Jones, I.C. Prentice, and F.I. Woodward. 2008. Evaluation of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle, Future Plant Geography and Climate-Carbonn Cycle Feedbacks Using Five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 2015-2039`
Wiegolaski, F.E. 2001. Phenological Modifications in Plants by Various Edaphic Factors. International Journal of Biometeorology 45: 196-202
Other Resources Cited
Farming Futures. 2008. Nitrogen Cycle of a Farm. Accessed 10/15/2008 online: http://www.farmingfutures.org.uk/x509.xml
Keeling, R.F., SC. Piper, A.F. Bolllenbacher, and S.J. Walker. 2008. Atmospheric CO2 Values (ppmv) Derived from In Situ Air Samples Collected at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, USA. Accessed 10/13/2008 online: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/maunaloa.co2
NASA. 2008. Earth Observatory. Accessed 10/12/2008 online: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/CarbonCycle/printall.php
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. 2006. Jet Propulsion Laboratory Water Cycle. Accessed 10/12/2008 online: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2006-146
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. 2008. Global Carbon Dioxide Transport from AIRS Data, July 2008. Accessed 10/19/2008 online: http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA11194
United States Geological Survey. 2004. Fire and Mud. Accessed 10/16/2008 online: http://pubs.usgs.gov/pinatubo/
