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Marketing Research & Social Communication Lesson 2 Introduction to Quantitative Research Ray Poynter 1 Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015

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Marketing Research & Social Communication Lesson 2

Introduction to Quantitative Research

Ray Poynter

1  Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015  

Agenda

1.  Reviewing last week 2.  What is quantitative market research? 3.  What are surveys? 4.  How do they work? 5.  Where do the participants (respondents)

come from? 6.  Why does sampling matter? 7.  Where does ethics fit into the picture?

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   2  

Review Lesson 1 Open your PC, phone, or tablet and go to

NewMR.org/Saitama-2015

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   3  

Review Lesson 1 Scroll down to Lesson 1 (or click on Lesson 1 in the top table)

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   4  

Review Lesson 1 Click on the Nivea link, play the video, go back to the NewMR.org/Saitama-2015 page.

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   5  

Review Lesson 1 1.  If you have not already completed the survey, click

on the survey link. 2.  If you have already completed the survey, click on

the TEST LINK

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   6  

Review Lesson 1 Click on the download lecture notes link.

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   7  

Review Lesson 1 Click on the download lecture notes link.

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   8  

Review Lesson 1

If you want to save a copy to your computer

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   9  

Click  here  

You  can  also  use  the  SlideShare  app  from  a  mobile  or  tablet  

Review Lesson 1

If you want to save a copy to your computer, you will need to sign in. With LinkedIn

Or, Facebook

Or, with a free SlideShare account

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   10  

Lesson 1 – Big Picture 1.  Focusing on customers we help organisations

make better decisions 2.  We

– Create explanations – Make predictions – Help create the future

3.  We draw on the social sciences (& other disciplines) and use quantitative and qualitative approaches

4.  There is more to us than just surveys and focus groups

5.  Data is an input, insight and action are outputs Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   11  

Textbook

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   12  

Title:  Answers  to  Contemporary    Market  Research  Ques:ons  

 Published:  ESOMAR  Editors:  Ray  Poynter  &  Sue  York  Date:  March  2014  ISBN:  92  831  0262  2  Price:  20  Euros  Dona/on:  ESOMAR  donated  30  books    

What is Quantitative Research? Measuring things to:

– Describe – Monitor – Explain – Predict

What is Quantitative Research? Seeks to generalise measurements to a wider context

Half  the  class  write  their  average  travel  /me  to  Saitama  University  in  minutes  on  a  green  card.  Half  on  a  pink  card.  

Green  Median  =  ?  Mean  =    ?  Pink  Median  =    ?  Mean  =    ?  Total  Median  =    ?  Mean  =    ?  

Median:  sort  the  values  from  smallest  to  largest,  the  middle  value  is  the  Median.  

What is Quantitative Research?

Assumes things can be measured with numbers

– How many friends do you have? – How much do you like your friends?

Also,  do  we  all  mean  the  same  thing  by  the  word  ‘friends’?  

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   16  

Based  on  financial  intelligence  AND  160,000  survey  responses  

Sources of Quantitative Data •  Surveys •  Store audit data •  Diary data •  Web analytics •  Transactional data (e.g. phone

usage, purchases, downloads) •  Meters (e.g. TV viewing meters) •  Social media data

Quantitative Modes

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   18  

Global   Japan  Online   35%   52%  Telephone   17%   2%  Face-­‐to-­‐face   16%   13%  Postal   1%   12%  Other    (mostly  non-­‐survey)  

31%   21%  

Source:  ESOMAR  Global  Market  Research  Report,  2013  

Note,  this  table  ignores  Mobile.  We  will  come  back  to  mobile  in  a  few  weeks.  

Population and Sample Population

– Everybody we are interested in •  All adults in Japan •  Every male over 40 who buys whiskey

Sample – Some of the people from a population – Used to estimate what the answer would

have been if we had interviewed everybody If  we  interview  everybody  then  it  is  a  census  

Population and Samples

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   20  

A  sample  of  people  from  this  class  

Another  sample  of  people  from  this  class  

+  

+  

Popula/on  of  people  here  in  this  class  

Sample  of  people  registered  for  this  class  Sample  of  students  at  Saitama  University  

Reasons why the Sample Might NOT Match the Population

1.  The list of the population may be incomplete

2.  The method of selecting people might not be ‘statistically fair’

3.  Some people may decline to take part

4.  Random chance

Sampling Error The sample is usually different from the population, because of random chance

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   22  

Number  

No  Number  

?  

?  

The  difference  between  the  result  and  50:50  is  sampling  error.    If  we  conducted  more  tests  it  would  get  closer  to  50:50.  

Significance Testing / Measurement of Sampling Error

Significance testing or measurement of sampling error warns us about the error that we might have If we sample 100 people and 50% like Coca-Cola then we say

– The ‘real’ value is probably between 40% and 60% (50% +/- 10%)

If we sample 1000 people and 50% like Coca-Cola, then we say

– The ‘real’ value is probably between 47% and 53% (50% +/- 3%)

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   23  

1936 US Presidential Election

•  American magazine, Literary Digest, wanted to predict the Presidential election

•  Mailed (posted) 10 million questionnaires – 2 million replies – in 1936

•  Predicted Landon would beat Roosevelt – But Roosevelt won

•  Why? – Sample phone owners, car owners, buyers of

the magazine, during an economic recession

Linking Surveys to the Real World

Three key problems in linking survey data to the real world

1.  Was the sample representative of the population?

2.  Were the respondents (participants) willing to answer the questions truthfully?

3.  Were the participants able to answer the questions accurately?

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   25  

Do these questions get honest answers?

•  Do you eat too much? •  Do you cheat on your boyfriend/girlfriend? •  Do you take drugs? •  How much money will you lend me? •  Do you feed your child healthy food?

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   26  

Social  desirability  bias  

Can you answer these questions accurately/ correctly?

•  How many times will you eat sushi in the next two months?

•  How much would you pay for an Apple Watch?

•  Will you go overseas on holiday in the next 12 months?

•  Will you like the taste of the Cabury Creme Egg?

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   27  

Linking Survey Data to the Real World

1.  Create samples that are representative of the population

2.  Ask questions in ways that people are willing to answer

3.  Ask questions that people are able to answer accurately

4.  Use statistics to model what the real outcome is likely to be.

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   28  

Modelling Purchase Intent Asking whether people in Japan will buy Cadbury Creme Eggs:

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   29  

Definitely  buy  32%    Probably  buy  30%    Might  or  might  not  buy  25%    Probably  not  buy  10%    Definitely  not  buy  3%  

•  Only  3%  said  Definitely  Not  Buy  •  Only  13%  said  Definitely  or  Probably  Not  Buy  •  62%  said  Definitely  or  Probably  Buy  

Modelling Purchase Intent Asking whether people in Japan will buy Cadbury Creme Eggs:

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   30  

Definitely  buy  32%  Weight  0.75  24%  Probably  buy  30%  Weight  0.1  3%  Might  or  might  not  buy  25%  Weight    0  0%  Probably  not  buy  10%  Weight    0  0%  Definitely  not  buy  3%  Weight    0  0%  

Note,  these  weights  are  examples.  Companies  keep  the  real  weights  secret.  They  are  based  on  Country  and    Product  Category.  

•  Weighted  forecast  is  24%  +  3%  =  27%  will  buy  •  Even  that  forecast  depends  on  distribu/on  and  marke/ng  

Think about advertising

•  What screens are people using? •  What advertising works on

– TV – PC – Smartphone – Tablet

•  Who is see what, when, and with what response?

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   31  

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   32  

Looking at Your Survey Data

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   33  

Ethics in Market Research 1.  Participation is voluntary

– My surveys for you are not MR, they are education J

2.  The research must have no negative impact on the participants

3.  The data must remain confidential, e.g. the data can’t be used for direct selling

4.  Clients must be able to assess the reliability and validity of the results

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   34  

Big Picture 1.  Quantitative market research is about

describing things with numbers.

2.  Surveys are the most common tool in quantitative market research

3.  We normally need to be able to generalise from a sample to a population

4.  Surveys need to use questions that people are willing and able to answer

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   35  

Before Next Lesson

1.  Read chapters 2 and 3 of the textbook 2.  Take the survey for Lesson 3, from the

website

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   36  

Questions?

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   37  

Quiz Lesson 2

Ray  Poynter,  Marke/ng  Research  &  Social  Communica/on,  2015   38  

Q1  What  is  the  MAIN  method  used  in  quan:ta:ve  market  research?    Select  one  answer  1  ☐  Focus  groups  2  ☐  Surveys  3  ☐  Mystery  shopping  4  ☐  Passive  data  collec/on    Q2  What  is  important  about  a  survey  ques:on?  Select  all  that  apply  1  ☐  People  are  able  to  answer  it  2  ☐  It  uses  a  five  point  scale  3  ☐  People  are  willing  to  answer  it  4  ☐  It  should  use  very  polite  language    Q3  Which  of  these  samples  is  most  likely  to  produce  the  correct  result?  Select  one  answer  1  ☐  A  large  unrepresenta/ve  sample  2  ☐  A  small  unrepresenta/ve  sample  3  ☐  A  large  representa/ve  sample  4  ☐  A  small  representa/ve  sample