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Marketing Research & Social Communication Lesson 2
Introduction to Quantitative Research
Ray Poynter
1 Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015
Agenda
1. Reviewing last week 2. What is quantitative market research? 3. What are surveys? 4. How do they work? 5. Where do the participants (respondents)
come from? 6. Why does sampling matter? 7. Where does ethics fit into the picture?
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 2
Review Lesson 1 Open your PC, phone, or tablet and go to
NewMR.org/Saitama-2015
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 3
Review Lesson 1 Scroll down to Lesson 1 (or click on Lesson 1 in the top table)
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 4
Review Lesson 1 Click on the Nivea link, play the video, go back to the NewMR.org/Saitama-2015 page.
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 5
Review Lesson 1 1. If you have not already completed the survey, click
on the survey link. 2. If you have already completed the survey, click on
the TEST LINK
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 6
Review Lesson 1 Click on the download lecture notes link.
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 7
Review Lesson 1 Click on the download lecture notes link.
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 8
Review Lesson 1
If you want to save a copy to your computer
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 9
Click here
You can also use the SlideShare app from a mobile or tablet
Review Lesson 1
If you want to save a copy to your computer, you will need to sign in. With LinkedIn
Or, Facebook
Or, with a free SlideShare account
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 10
Lesson 1 – Big Picture 1. Focusing on customers we help organisations
make better decisions 2. We
– Create explanations – Make predictions – Help create the future
3. We draw on the social sciences (& other disciplines) and use quantitative and qualitative approaches
4. There is more to us than just surveys and focus groups
5. Data is an input, insight and action are outputs Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 11
Textbook
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 12
Title: Answers to Contemporary Market Research Ques:ons
Published: ESOMAR Editors: Ray Poynter & Sue York Date: March 2014 ISBN: 92 831 0262 2 Price: 20 Euros Dona/on: ESOMAR donated 30 books
What is Quantitative Research? Seeks to generalise measurements to a wider context
Half the class write their average travel /me to Saitama University in minutes on a green card. Half on a pink card.
Green Median = ? Mean = ? Pink Median = ? Mean = ? Total Median = ? Mean = ?
Median: sort the values from smallest to largest, the middle value is the Median.
What is Quantitative Research?
Assumes things can be measured with numbers
– How many friends do you have? – How much do you like your friends?
Also, do we all mean the same thing by the word ‘friends’?
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 16
Based on financial intelligence AND 160,000 survey responses
Sources of Quantitative Data • Surveys • Store audit data • Diary data • Web analytics • Transactional data (e.g. phone
usage, purchases, downloads) • Meters (e.g. TV viewing meters) • Social media data
Quantitative Modes
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 18
Global Japan Online 35% 52% Telephone 17% 2% Face-‐to-‐face 16% 13% Postal 1% 12% Other (mostly non-‐survey)
31% 21%
Source: ESOMAR Global Market Research Report, 2013
Note, this table ignores Mobile. We will come back to mobile in a few weeks.
Population and Sample Population
– Everybody we are interested in • All adults in Japan • Every male over 40 who buys whiskey
Sample – Some of the people from a population – Used to estimate what the answer would
have been if we had interviewed everybody If we interview everybody then it is a census
Population and Samples
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 20
A sample of people from this class
Another sample of people from this class
+
+
Popula/on of people here in this class
Sample of people registered for this class Sample of students at Saitama University
Reasons why the Sample Might NOT Match the Population
1. The list of the population may be incomplete
2. The method of selecting people might not be ‘statistically fair’
3. Some people may decline to take part
4. Random chance
Sampling Error The sample is usually different from the population, because of random chance
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 22
Number
No Number
?
?
The difference between the result and 50:50 is sampling error. If we conducted more tests it would get closer to 50:50.
Significance Testing / Measurement of Sampling Error
Significance testing or measurement of sampling error warns us about the error that we might have If we sample 100 people and 50% like Coca-Cola then we say
– The ‘real’ value is probably between 40% and 60% (50% +/- 10%)
If we sample 1000 people and 50% like Coca-Cola, then we say
– The ‘real’ value is probably between 47% and 53% (50% +/- 3%)
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 23
1936 US Presidential Election
• American magazine, Literary Digest, wanted to predict the Presidential election
• Mailed (posted) 10 million questionnaires – 2 million replies – in 1936
• Predicted Landon would beat Roosevelt – But Roosevelt won
• Why? – Sample phone owners, car owners, buyers of
the magazine, during an economic recession
Linking Surveys to the Real World
Three key problems in linking survey data to the real world
1. Was the sample representative of the population?
2. Were the respondents (participants) willing to answer the questions truthfully?
3. Were the participants able to answer the questions accurately?
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 25
Do these questions get honest answers?
• Do you eat too much? • Do you cheat on your boyfriend/girlfriend? • Do you take drugs? • How much money will you lend me? • Do you feed your child healthy food?
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 26
Social desirability bias
Can you answer these questions accurately/ correctly?
• How many times will you eat sushi in the next two months?
• How much would you pay for an Apple Watch?
• Will you go overseas on holiday in the next 12 months?
• Will you like the taste of the Cabury Creme Egg?
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 27
Linking Survey Data to the Real World
1. Create samples that are representative of the population
2. Ask questions in ways that people are willing to answer
3. Ask questions that people are able to answer accurately
4. Use statistics to model what the real outcome is likely to be.
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 28
Modelling Purchase Intent Asking whether people in Japan will buy Cadbury Creme Eggs:
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 29
Definitely buy 32% Probably buy 30% Might or might not buy 25% Probably not buy 10% Definitely not buy 3%
• Only 3% said Definitely Not Buy • Only 13% said Definitely or Probably Not Buy • 62% said Definitely or Probably Buy
Modelling Purchase Intent Asking whether people in Japan will buy Cadbury Creme Eggs:
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 30
Definitely buy 32% Weight 0.75 24% Probably buy 30% Weight 0.1 3% Might or might not buy 25% Weight 0 0% Probably not buy 10% Weight 0 0% Definitely not buy 3% Weight 0 0%
Note, these weights are examples. Companies keep the real weights secret. They are based on Country and Product Category.
• Weighted forecast is 24% + 3% = 27% will buy • Even that forecast depends on distribu/on and marke/ng
Think about advertising
• What screens are people using? • What advertising works on
– TV – PC – Smartphone – Tablet
• Who is see what, when, and with what response?
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 31
Ethics in Market Research 1. Participation is voluntary
– My surveys for you are not MR, they are education J
2. The research must have no negative impact on the participants
3. The data must remain confidential, e.g. the data can’t be used for direct selling
4. Clients must be able to assess the reliability and validity of the results
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 34
Big Picture 1. Quantitative market research is about
describing things with numbers.
2. Surveys are the most common tool in quantitative market research
3. We normally need to be able to generalise from a sample to a population
4. Surveys need to use questions that people are willing and able to answer
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 35
Before Next Lesson
1. Read chapters 2 and 3 of the textbook 2. Take the survey for Lesson 3, from the
website
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 36
Quiz Lesson 2
Ray Poynter, Marke/ng Research & Social Communica/on, 2015 38
Q1 What is the MAIN method used in quan:ta:ve market research? Select one answer 1 ☐ Focus groups 2 ☐ Surveys 3 ☐ Mystery shopping 4 ☐ Passive data collec/on Q2 What is important about a survey ques:on? Select all that apply 1 ☐ People are able to answer it 2 ☐ It uses a five point scale 3 ☐ People are willing to answer it 4 ☐ It should use very polite language Q3 Which of these samples is most likely to produce the correct result? Select one answer 1 ☐ A large unrepresenta/ve sample 2 ☐ A small unrepresenta/ve sample 3 ☐ A large representa/ve sample 4 ☐ A small representa/ve sample