1. public opinion: what the public thinks about aparticular issue or set of issues at any point in time. public opinion polls: interviews or surveys withsamples of citizens that are used to estimate thefeelings and beliefs of the entire population.

2. The History of Public Opinion Research Literary Digest began polling in 1916 straw polls: unscientific surveys used to gauge public opinion on a variety of issues and policies sample: a subset of the whole population selected to be questioned for the purposes of prediction or gauging opinion George Gallup got it right when Literary Digest gotit wrong (1936) 3. Traditional Public Opinion Polls Determining the content and phrasing thequestions The wording of the questions can affect the answers 4. Traditional Public Opinion Polls Selecting the sample random sampling: a method of poll selection that gives each person in a group the same chance of being selected. stratified sampling: a variation of random sampling; census data are used to divide the country into four sampling regions. Sets of counties and standard metropolitan statistical areas are then randomly selected in proportion to the total national population. Volunteers have different opinions from those who do not volunteer to answer survey. 5. Traditional Public Opinion Polls Contacting respondents Telephone most common (random digit dialing) Some in-person surveys done, but can affect responses 6. Political Polls push polls: polls taken for the purpose ofproviding information on an opponent thatwould lead respondents to vote against thatcandidate. tracking polls: continuous surveys that enablea campaign to chart its daily rise or fall insupport. exit polls: polls conducted at selected pollingplaces on Election Day 1980 Carter conceded before the polls closed 7. Shortcomings of Polling Margin of error: a measure of the accuracy of apublic opinion poll. all polls contain errors makes prediction of close elections difficult Sampling error accuracy depends on the quality of the sample (equalopportunity to be sampled) 8. Shortcomings of Polling Limited respondent options limited responses lead to inaccuracy Lack of information polls more inaccurate if they ask people about issuesthat people dont know or care about Difficulty measuring intensity 9. Why We Form and Express PoliticalOpinions Personal Benefits Will a policy affect us personally? We choose self- interest. Is a policy related to moral issue? We choose personal beliefs. Policy not personal, not moral? No opinion, swayed easily. 10. Why We Form and Express PoliticalOpinions Political Knowledge Knowledge of history and politics is historically low More knowledge of the system increases participation We DO know general direction we want country totake 11. Why We Form and Express PoliticalOpinions Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers Low levels of knowledge lead to rapid opinion shifts Political leaders can use mass media to influencepublic opinion 12. Why We Form and Express PoliticalOpinions Political Ideology political ideology: the coherent set of values andbeliefs about the purpose and scope of governmentheld by groups and individuals conservatives, liberals and moderates 13. The Evolution of News Media in the UnitedStates mass media the entire array of organizationsthrough which information is collected anddisseminated to the general public news media media providing the public with newinformation about subjects of public interest 14. Print Media partisan press, newspapers took positions(Federalists/Anti-Federalists) penny press, politically independent yellow journalism a form of newspaperpublishing in vogue in the late nineteenthcentury that featuredpictures, comics, color, andsensationalized, oversimplified news coverage muckraking a form of journalism, in vogue inthe early twentieth century, concerned withreforming government and business conduct 15. Radio News fireside chats FDR New Deal decline, then rise of AM talk radio 16. Television News not a significant news source until after WWII 17. decline of network news, rise of cable news (CNN, Fox, others) 18. rise of comedy news (SNL, Daily Show, Colbert Report) 19. The New Media Internet 20. Current Media Trends The Influence of Media Giants National newspapers, networks, cable networks, wireservices Media Consolidation some fear limited flow of information 21. Current Media Trends Increasing Use of Experts consultantswho picked them, why should they shape our views? Narrowcasting targeting a specific group Technological Innovation Blogs Social networks 22. Rules Governing the Media Journalistic Standards Code of Ethics, personal integrity 23. Rules Governing the Media Government Regulation of the Electronic Media airwaves are public property broadcasters lease airwaves from government airwaves are in limited supply FCC regulation of total national audience ofcorporations 24. Rules Governing the Media Content Regulation content regulation government attempts toregulate the substance of the mass media equal time rule the rule that requires broadcaststations to sell air time equally to all candidates in apolitical campaign if they choose to sell it to any 25. Rules Governing the Media Efforts to Control the News Media Only a free and unrestrained press can effectivelyexpose deception in the government. New YorkTimes Co. v. U.S. (1971) 26. How the Media Cover Politics How the Press and Public Figures Interact press release a document offering an officialcomment or position press briefing a relatively restricted session betweena press secretary or aide and the press press conference an unrestricted session between anelected official and the press New York Times Co. v. Sullivan (1964) the SupremeCourt concluded that actual malice must be proved tosupport a finding of libel against a public figure 27. How the Media Cover Politics Covering the Presidency President can easily address the nation almost at will Negative coverage of administration common Covering Congress Also disproportionately negative C-SPAN Covering the Supreme Court severely limited coverage want to protect perception as nonpolitical andautonomous 28. Media Influence, Media Bias, and PublicConfidence Media Influence media effects the influence of news sources on public opinion agenda setting the constant process of forming the list of issuesto be addressed by government framing the process by which a news organization defines apolitical issue and consequently affects opinion about the issue Media Bias Media is traditionally liberal and identifies with Democratic party The Publics Perception of the Media public assessment of media is generally unfavorable ideological fragmentation of the media