Public Policy Analysis: An Introduction

William N. DunnAssociate Dean and Professor

University of Pittsburg

Dr. Dunn is a scholar, educator, and academic administrator. His most well-known publication is Public Policy Analysis, 4th ed.,which is one of the most widely cited books on the methodology of policy research and analysis in print.

What is Policy Analysis: Definitions

The use of reason and evidence to select the best policy among a number of alternatives to address a particular policy problem. (MacRae and Wilde).

“An applied social science that utilizes multiple research methods, in argumentation and debate contexts, to create, estimate critically, and communicate knowledge that is relevant to the policies.” (Dunn)

A process through which one identifies and evaluates “alternative policies or programs that are intended to lessen or resolve social, economic or physical problems” (Patton & Sawicki)

“Policy analysis is client oriented advice relevant to public, or private, decisions and informed by social values” Weiner & Vining

A good analysis or even a good decision Does Not Guarantee that the optimal solution will be selected and / or implemented.

What Policy Analysis Can and Cannot Do…….Policy analysis can assist decision makers in

choosing a preferred course of action from complex alternatives and under uncertain conditions.

Policy analysis is not a panacea or a substitute for inadequate policymaking processes, defects of public decisions, bad judgment on the part of analysts or policymakers, an exact science or a tool for advocacy by the analyst for his/her own views.

One way to look at the Analysis

The Problem & the Solution

“a problem well formulated is a problem half solved”

Defining the Policy Problem is easier said than done…..

Not all Public Problems are amenable to policy analysis, but when they.., the analysis can support decision making to:Determine whether a new policy is required to

address the problemIf a policy already exists, determine whether it

needs to be modified or terminatedAnalyze one policy (retrospectively or prospectively)Compare two or more policies that address a similar

problemAssess future implications of current or new policiesExplore stages in the development of particular

policies

We want to learn how to look at problems from multiple

perspectives to achieve the best problem definition and possible / feasible solutions

Example: Increasing rates of lung cancer among certain population groups could be framed as:

The failure of individuals to stop smoking, orFailure of the health care providers to provide

adequate / timely information, orFailure of the Government to regulate smoking in

public places, orFailure on the part of Government to take the

opportunity to improve research, to raise taxes by increasing the price of cigarettes

All of the above

Increasing obesity among youngsters and among certain population groups could be framed as:

The failure of parents or individual will to change their eating behaviors, or

The inability of health care providers to provide adequate and timely information, or

Failure of the government to:Regulate health care dept.Eliminate harmful substances from the general dietBuild more places for people to exercise

All of the above

Problem Definition“There is a difference between a condition and a problem…conditions become defined as problems when we come to believe that we should do something about them…the problem doesn’t have to get any worse or better”.

Kingdon, 1984

Problem Definition in Decision MakingProblem definition depends on:

How issues are framed, portrayedHow obvious is the crisis that the problem evokesHow it is measured

Endless ways to look at a particular problem, yet limited time, money and energy.

Hence, highly complex issues are simplified; focus on certain aspects happens at the expense of other aspects / elements

Challenges of Public Policy problems (Social problems)May show up in ways that are difficult to address“Inherently multidimensional”, overlap & contradictAre ill defined, so “wicked problems”The consensus over social goals may be illusoryDecision-makers have different preferences and

values, often conflictingThe definition of a policy problem is not completely

scientific or systematic: creativity, sagacity, socially constructed

Situation that can be perceived as important into a problem

Indicators reveal its existence, magnitude, severity

Events or crisis call attention on a problemThe results of evaluations (or

monitoring/surveillance) show

Methodology of Policy Analysis: integrates elements from Multiple disciplines

Political ScienceSociologyPsychologyEconomicsPhilosophy

Three Approaches to Policy Analysis

Approach Primary Question Type of

Information

Empirical Does it and will it exist? (facts)

Descriptive and predictive

Valuative Of what worth is it? (values) Valuative

Normative (value-critical)

What should be done? (action) Prescriptive

Five types of Policy relevant information: interrelated and interdependent

S. No. Types Importance

1 Policy Problems

Conceptualizing problem from different angles-viable solutions

2 Policy Futures Identifying consequences of future course of action

3 Policy Actions Forecasting & evaluating consequences of action based on different alternatives

4 Policy Outcomes

Ensuring an observed consequences of policy actions

5Policy Performance

Finding the degree of value contributed by policy outcome (useful in forecasting policy future)

Five Info is obtained by the means of - Policy Analysis Process of Inquiry

S. No. Procedure Information

1 Definition (Problem

Structuring)Conditions giving rise to a policy

problem

2 Prediction (Forecasting)

Future consequences of acting on policy alternatives, including doing

nothing

3Prescription

(Recommendation)

Future course of action

4 Description (Monitoring)

Present and Past causes and consequences of acting on policy

alternatives

5 Evaluation Value or worth of consequences in solving the problem

Process of Policy Communication: 4 Stage Process

Policy Analyst

1Policy

Analysis

2Materials

Development

4Knowledge Utilization

3Interactive

Communication

Knowledge:Policy ProblemsPolicy FuturesPolicy Actions

Policy Performance

Presentations:ConversationsConferences

MeetingsBriefingsHearings

Stakeholders:Agenda Setting

Policy Formulation

Policy AdoptionPolicy

Implemen.Policy

Assessment

Documents:Policy MemoPolicy Issue

PapersExe. Summary

AppendicesNews Release

Three Elements of Policy System

Policy Stakeholder

s

Public Policy

Policy Environmen

t

Source: Adapted from Thomas R. Dye, Understanding Public Policy 3rd ed.

CrimeInflationUnemploymentDiscriminationUrban Squalor

Policy AnalystsCitizens’ GroupsLabor UnionsPartiesAgencies

Law EnforcementEconomicWelfarePersonnelUrban

Six Elements of Policy Arguments: the main vehicle for conducting debates about PP Issues

1. Policy Relevant

Information

(Therefore)6.

Qualifier

2. Policy Claim

(Bcoz)4.

Backing

(Since)3.

Warrant

(Unless)5.

Rebuttal

(Bcoz)Backing

ProbablyNuclear power is two or three Times more efficient than Conventional Power Sources

Production of Nuclear energy is The only way to ensure continuing growth Of the economy

Arab Countires can continueTo embargo oil. Other sourcesAre limited

This is the conclusion of panel of experts

Govt. should invest in The construction of Nuclear power plants

Solar Energy can be developedOn a large scale

Dunn’s Integrated Framework: Problem Centered Policy Analysis

Problem Structurin

g

Prob

lem

St

ruct

urin

g

Prob

lem

St

ruct

urin

g

Problem Structurin

g

Policy Problem

s

Forecasting

Monitoring

Evaluation

Recommendation

Policy Outcomes

Policy Actions

Policy Futures

Policy Performance

The process of policy analysis is a series of intellectual activities carried out within a process comprised of activities that are essentially political

Reconstructed Logic Vs. Logic-in-UseReconstructed Logic Logic-in-Use

Process – problem centered policy analysis

Variation can occur due to personal characteristics of analysts and the institutional setting

Designed for methodological purposes ie. For studying the strengths and weaknesses of different methods & techniques of Policy Analysis

Factors that Influence variation:•Cognitive Style: diff. Knowledge•Analytical Roles: Entrep, Politicians and Technicians•Institutional Incentive system: Different orientation – humanistic & scientific; quality control also differs•Institutional time constraints: expedite• Professional Socialization: varied orientation (traditional/basic & applied)

Forms of Policy Analysis

Prospective Policy

Analysis

Retrospective Policy Analsis

Integrated Policy

Analysis

Three major forms of Policy Analysis:

Prospective Policy Analysis:Involves the production and transformation of

information before policy actions are initiated and implemented. Tends to Characterize the operating styles of economists, systems analysts, and operations

researchers.Synthesizes information to draw policy alternatives and preferences.

Prospective Analysis often creates large gap

Preferred Solutions

to Problems

Efforts of Govt. to

resolve the problem

Gaps

Retrospective Policy AnalysisConfined to the production and transformation of information after policy actions have been taken. Operating styles of three major groups of analysts:1.Discipline oriented analysts2.Problem oriented analysts3.Application oriented analysts

Discipline Oriented Analysis

Problem Oriented Analysis

Application Oriented Analysis

Political Scientists & Sociologists – seeks to develop and test discipline based theories.

Political Scientists & Sociologists - seeks to describe the causes and consequences of policies.

Also persons from social work, public administration & evaluation research. Seeks to describe causes & consq

Describe the causes and consequences of the policies.

Less concerned with the development and testing of theories. Discipline Oriented AnalysisWhat affected the policies

Not concerned with dev. And testing of discipline based theories.

Seldom attempts to identity specific goals and objectives of policymakers (does not distinguish “policy variables”).

Seldom provides info about specific goals and objectives of policymakers. Coz the problem they analyze are usually of general nature.

They are concerned with the identification of goals and objectives of policy makers and other stakeholders. Good info for evaluating policy outcome.

Prospective Policy Analysis

Suffers from inadequate & unreliable info. About

changes in values , goals and objectives which occur after

policies have been implemented.

Integrated Policy Analysis

Builds on the strengths of both Prospective &

Retrospective Analysis – multidisciplinary in full

sense of the world

Multidisciplinary framework, concerns with the production & transformation of information both before and after policy

actions have been taken.

Provides methodology for policy analysis (rules & procedures)

Retrospective Policy Analysis

Suffers from its nature i.e. confined with passive

reporting of information about the consequences of

implemented policies

Integrated Policy Analysis

An Integrated FrameworkPolicy

Performance

Policy Actions

Policy Outcomes

Policy Futures

Policy Problems

Forecasting

Monitoring

Evaluation

Recommendation

P. S.

P.S.P.S.

P.S.

Retrospective

What happened?After action

Prospective

What will happen?Before action

Methodology of Policy Analysis: Distinction between theories

Descriptive Decision Theory: set of logically consistent propositions that describe action. Primary aim is to understand a policy problem rather than to solve it.

Normative Decision Theory: set of logically consistent propositions that provide a basis for improving the consequences of action. Appropriate for predicting and recommending different courses of action before they have occurred. Aim is to solve the problem - “Problem Solving” methodology.

SummaryA combination and transformation of the

substance and methods of several disciplines, intends to produce policy relevant information to resolve the problems

Knowledge of what is (fact), what is right (values) and what to do (action) requires / demands the use of multiple methods of inquiry

Policy analysis has 3 main forms: prospective, retrospective & integrated

Thank you