Salazar, M - Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Land Use in the Lao PDR

Mike Salazar, Laura Collet & Rod Lefroy

A short study implemented by the

International Center for Tropical Agriculture (Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical – CIAT)


Components of the Report

1. Climate Change

2. Impacts

3. Land Use Change

4. Impacts in the context of current land use


Climate Change


Climate VariablesChange from 1901 until 2002 in:

1) Annual Min. Temperature

2) Annual Mean Temperature

3) Annual Max. Temperature

4) Annual Precipitation

5) April Precipitation

6) May Precipitation

7) October Precipitation


Results 1901 – 2002: Annual Mean Temp. 2

• Variable countrywide increase• Most of north & central areas: 0.1 to 0.5ºC/100 yr• Southern parts: 0.5 to 1.0ºC/100 yr


Results 2020 & 2050: Annual Mean Temp. 2

Mean Temperature - Scenario A1b

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060


Results 2020 & 2050: Annual Mean Temp. 2

Example: Sayabouri Annual Mean Temperature 1982 – 2002: 23.7 °C Modeled 2020: 24.4 °C Modeled 2050: 25.7 °C


Climate Change in Laos:

During the 20th Century:

Based on analysis of the CRU dataset (and supported by local data and anecdotal evidence from villagers):

• TemperatureSignificant increase in annual minimum, mean, & maximum temperatures throughout the country, but particularly in the south

• RainfallSignificant trends in rainfall (some areas increasing, others decreasing), but not large compared to the inter-annual variations


Climate Change in Laos:

During the 21st Century:

Based on the IPCC A1b scenario and the mean of 7 Global Circulation models (GCMs):

• TemperaturePredict significant increase in annual minimum, mean, & maximum temperatures throughout the country, but particularly in the south

• RainfallPredict significant and variable changes in rainfall (some areas increasing, others decreasing), but changes still small compared to the current variability in rainfall


Impacts


Sugarcane: Current & Future Suitability


Arabica coffee: Current & Future Suitability


Land Use Change


Assessing Land Use & Land Use Change

Land Use Statistics

• FAO statistics (1961 – 2007) (crops, timber, land-use)• MAF crop statistics for the Province (District) (1976-2008)

Land Use Change Analysis

• MODIS 10-day 250 m NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) product for 2000-2009

• Compared 22 March 2000 with 22 March 2009• Analysis of vegetation cover (NDVI)• Detection of vegetation change


Detecting Land Use Change – Results

2000 2009Bare Land: < 0.5

Dense Vegetation: > 0.75


Detecting Land Use Change – Results Example of Sayabouri Province

2000 2009Maiz


Detecting Land Use Change – Results

Main Decrease: -150 - -7Main Increase: 20 - 100

Mean: -2.32


Fire Patterns

Spatial distribution of fire mapped over an elevation gradient by the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007, 2008 and 2009 in Xieng Ngeung and Botene districts


Spatial pattern of vegetation activityGeographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and labeled to land coverage in Geographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and labeled to land coverage in BoteneBotene


Spatial pattern of vegetation activityGeographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and labeled to land coverage in Geographical distribution of 5 clusters classified in a time series (8-years) and labeled to land coverage in Xieng NgeunXieng Ngeun


Conclusion and Recommendations

• The resilience and sustainability of many farming systems is very low

• More integrated crop and livestock systems, with a much higher degree of resource management, are needed

• Such systems changes, while reducing risk and introducing greater resilience for the current situation will also prepare for the hotter and more water-challenged future predicted with climate change


Thank you

Education

Salazar, M - Potential Impact Of Climate Change On Land Use In The Lao Pdr