THE EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF STRATEGIC STUDIESTHE CAUSES AND IMPACTS OF THE SYRIAN WAR TO REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EASTMUHAMMAD SYUKHRI BIN SHAFEE (818981)

INTRODUCTION

Syria is one of the country located in Middle East region and their President is Bashar al-Assad. Previous President was his father (Hafiz Assad)

Since the one incident happen on 2011 when people make peace demonstration to show their unhappiness to his cabinet

it became worst when the police and military started use violent to prevent this demonstration become huge.

Then, the internal conflict were began.

CAUSES OF CONFLICT

Peace demonstration were occurred by civilian because of the act of the soldier of Bashar unto their children.

The number of demonstration become bigger and violent were used to stop that demonstration.

The dissatisfied of Sunni group unto Shiite group in Syria administration.

PARTIES INVOLVED IN SYRIAN WAR

Bashar soldier Iran Hezbollah (Lebanon) Anti Terror Squad (Russian) China (in term of Veto Power in Security Council, UN)

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Free Syrian Army (Rebellion group and other groups) Ikhwanul Muslimin (Egypt) Some said U.S.A, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey (still not sure)

THE IMPACTS OF SYRIAN WAR

Refugee of War in Middle East increase In Lebanon = 1 Million refugees. It lead Lebanon to

oversaturated in Lebanon labor force and unemployment increase in that country. It cost for local government to handle these refugee around $7.5 Billion.

In Jordan= More than 600,000 refugee. Classroom space became limited, water and energy supplies also became a problem in certain place since the refugees from Syria get shelter there

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In Turkey = 747,000 refugees. The local government spend a lot of money to them and give permanent resident to refugees from Syria.

Iraq = The UNHCR and local communities supplies blankets, mattresses, kitchen sets, education and medication. Because of this, it make the local people have to share their food and other things to make sure the refugees get enough supplies and survive

THE EFFECTS TO ECONOMY

Syria = According to report by Syrian Research Center, they estimated the losses because of crisis over last 22 months approximately $48.4 billion. In other word, it equal to 81.7% of Syrian Growth Domestic Product (GDP) for year 2010 and 43% damaged in capital stock

GDP of Syria in 2010 was 8.8% reduce to 3.5% for year 2012. The cause of that, government budget deficit from 3.8% in year 2010 to 10.1% in year 2012. Then, the public debt increase from 23% of GDP in year 2010 to 40% of GDP in year 2012

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This civil war also has hurt the standards of living other countries at the same time especially neighbor countries and Middle East region countries

For example, the per capita incomes of people in several countries declining. Such as Lebanon declining to 11 %, and meanwhile Jordan, Turkey and Egypt declining to 1.5 %

MEDICAL FACILITIES AND INFECTION DISEASES

From the report said about 40% of ambulances were destroyed, 57% of public hospitals are damaged and just 37% of the hospital are out of services. At the same time, many of doctor move to other countries (approximately 80,000 doctors) after more than 160 doctors are killed and jailed. The pharmaceutical needs also increase to 90% and the medicine also out of stock. It lead to declining of Vaccination coverage in Syria from 91% in year 2010 to 45% in year 2013

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In respond for that, about 2.7 million Syrian children and 23 million citizens from various countries including Syria make vaccination campaign

The problem of Leishmaniasis later on become concern in Middle East region since The Civil War of Syria occurred. This dieses happen because of crowded of refugees in refugee camps and it spread to other countries in Middle East. For example, the cutaneous leishmaniasis in Syria increase to 52,982 cases in 2012 according to report in year 2012

MILITARY EXPENDITURE

Turkey = about 29.4 Billion Turkish Liras or equal to $13.2 Billion for year 2014. That expenditure took cover about 1.71% from Turkey Gross Domestic Product on year 2014. (Compare to year 2010, $10 Billion)

Saudi Arabia = $67 Billion on 2013. (Compare to year 2011, $46.219 Billion)

Bahrain = increase their expenditure on military with double the expenditure since from 2004 and 2014 to $1.236 Billion

For military expenditure of United Arab Emirates on year 2009, approximately $9.238 Billion. But this number increase to $19Billion on year 2013

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Oman also followed the same trend in increase the military expenditure. For example, since before year 2011, Oman government spends their budget for military expenditure about $4.7 Billion. But this number increase tremendously to $9.2 Billion after 2011.

Because of that, the total expenditure for military for Middle East countries approximately $120Billion. This expenditure lead to this region as the fastest growing in the world in term of militaries expenditure

CONCLUSION

The Syrian Civil War happen because of the mistake were made by Bashar al-Assad during his period and his father. The mistake is they give huge pressure to the Syrian civilian for a long time ago. Until the time has come, suddenly Syrian Civil War happen and it also the wave of ‘Arab Spring’ which is to overthrown their leader whose are dictatorship

Since the Second World War end, Syrian make a highest record for war refugees that never been recorded previously

Because of Syrian Civil War, it make counties in Middle East region increase their security in term of defense budget and prevention step to stop spread of dieses came from Syrian refugees. The countries are rule by dictator seem so worry if ‘Arab Spring’ wave will come to their nation.

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Even if Syrian Civil War are not finish yet, other problem emerge which is terrorist group. The new terrorist group were emerged since 2014 and called Islamic Syrian and Iraq States (ISIS) or Islamic State (IS).

The situation become bad to worst.