What’s Next?

Wayne MacPhail

Week Thirteen

The future is here.It’s just unevenly

distributed.

-William Gibson

We drive into the futureusing only our

rearview mirror.

- Marshall McLuhan

The best way to predict the future,

is to invent it.

- Alan Kay

1955This ball is really

important!

1955It says, be sure to plug in

the keyboard and monitor!WTF?

Oh, nice use of an anacronistic acronym for a cheap laugh

Gladys, you skank.

1969

34,000 bytes of memory43,000 Hz$46 million

4,000,000,000 G of memory2.600,000,000 GHz

<$1000

1970

Flammable Pants

1977

1980 Not a hairpiece

2008

2006 2004

2002 2000

1998 1996

1994

1992

2010 =

2012

FourYears

From Now

1980-2008

4 million times more memory

2008 0.0034

0.39

2006 0.0064

0

12.5

25.0

37.5

50.0

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2008

1986 48

1990 13.6

1994 1.3

1998 0.066

2002 0.039

2006 0.0064

Cost per megabyte of storage by year

Watch the trends

Expect disruptive innovation

Imagine zero

Disruptive Innovation

Disruptive Innovations

Digital vs Film PhotographyDesktop vs. Press PublishingLEDs vs. Light Bulbs

Twitter vs Newsrooms

Batteries Due

Analytical Engine 1837

Charles Babbage

Memex, 1945

Vannevar Bush

Home Computer, 1954

Rand Corporation

Knowledge Navigator, 1987

Apple Computer

Apple Lisa, 1984

Apple Computer

Macintosh1984

The Trend to Zero

Time

Cost

StorageBandwidthMonitorsMemory

ProcessorsNewspaper Readership

How to Think About the Future

PastPresentFuture

Always concurrent

What’s next?

First,what used to be next.

We’ve passed that now.

Multi-modal inputwith context awareness

Geo-locationGeo-locationGeo-location

OLED

100,000:1 ratio.002 inches thick

Flaps in the breeze

Will show up inphoto IDs

and cellphones

Wireless, location-aware silicon is

the new wood pulp.

And the news?

Granularity melts.Newsrooms unify.

Curation rules.

Newspaper thinking dies.

Online Journalism Blog

And the you?

You get to make this all true.

Thanks for your kind attention.