Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
The Red (Team) Analysis Society
From weak signals to crisis scenarios
Dr Helene Lavoix
Fourth Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management “AnEcipaEng crises and their potenEal pathways”
Geneva, Switzerland 28-‐29 May, 2015
1
Fourth Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management “Anticipating crises and their potential pathways”
28-29 May 2015
Geneva, Switzerland
PROVISIONAL AGENDA
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Outline
• Why do we anEcipate? • How do we anEcipate? Approaches & Processes
• How do we anEcipate? PracEce 1. The SF&W Officer’s challenges 2. Methodologies and tools
WHY DO WE ANTICIPATE?
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Why do we anEcipate?
An0cipa0on is in-‐built in living being and species for survival
Jasmine by By Inga Munsinger Co\on (h\ps://www.flickr.com/photos/ingamun/4640117097) [CC BY 2.0 (h\p://creaEvecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Pink jasmine (Jasminum polyanthum) -‐ flowers. Reunion island. By B.navez (Own work) [GFDL (h\p://www.gnu.org/copyleg/fdl.html), CC-‐BY-‐SA-‐3.0
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Why do we anEcipate?
Predic0on, an age old ac0vity for survival
Temple of Apollo in Delphi. eigen foto Sofie Debognies april 2005 by Napoleon Vier from nl [GFDL (h\p://www.gnu.org/copyleg/fdl.html) or CC-‐BY-‐SA-‐3.0 (h\p://creaEvecommons.org/licenses/by-‐sa/3.0/)], via Wikimedia Commons
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Why do we anEcipate? AnEcipaEon is used for most common but vital acEviEes… and for coordinaEon
Photography of Lascaux animal painEng By Prof saxx -‐ CC-‐BY-‐SA-‐3.0 (h\p://creaEvecommons.org/licenses/by-‐sa/3.0/)], via Wikimedia Commons
EaEng -‐ Preparing a meal
A Fancy Meal by Peggy Greb, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Public Domain
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
The price of failure: Surprise
§ Shorter term dynamics
§ Loss of markets, market-share
§ Disruption of production, logistics
§ Loss of competitiveness
§ Reduced profitability
§ Bought by competitors
§ Bankrupt
§ Etc.
States (countries) Businesses
Impact increased during instability and transiEon
§ Longer term dynamics
§ Loss of relative and absolute power
§ Loss of legitimacy for government
§ Loss of legitimacy for state
§ State fragilisation
§ Ultimately state collapse
§ Rebellions, revolutions, civil wars
§ Etc.
HOW DO WE ANTICIPATE? APPROACHES & PROCESSES
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
How do we anEcipate?
• We create “organized and systemaEc processes to reduce uncertainty regarding the future for policy-‐makers (decision-‐makers)” (Thomas Fingar, 2009)
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
The family of “an0cipatory ac0vi0es”
10
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Science
The ScienEfic Universe -‐ This image is the original work of Eric Fisk. Images are composited from Wikipedia -‐ By Eprazil (Own work) [CC BY-‐SA 3.0 (h\p://creaEvecommons.org/licenses/by-‐sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Intelligence et al.
NaEonal Intelligence EsEmate &
Assessment (US)
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Intelligence et al.
An0cipatory Intelligence
Strategic Futures (US)
Strategic Warning
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Strategic Foresight and Warning
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Risk Management
Cover Page of Topics Magazine By Munich Re
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
SF&W versus Risk Management? Managing Risk
Avoiding surprise
16
Risk = The effect of uncertainty on objecEves -‐ISO Guide 73:2009, definiEon 1.1
Now both are rather similar YET Time component missing in risk management
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Horizon Scanning
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Future studies (Futurism, Futurology)
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Prospec3ve (French)
French Ministry of Defense
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Scenario-‐building
• Rand and Herman Kahn • Shell Scenarios
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
ForecasEng
h\ps://dar\hrowingchimp.wordpress.com/ h\p://fsi.fundforpeace.org/
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Foresight
h\p://www.foresight-‐platorm.eu/
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Strategic Analysis
Screenshot of Strategic Analysis at the Henry Jackson Society h\p://www.strategic-‐analysis.org/
HOW DO WE ANTICIPATE? PRACTICE
1-‐ The SF&W Officer’s Crucial Challenges
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
The SF&W Officer’s Crucial Challenges Being a Bridge
25
"Kapellbruecke”in Luzern by Simon Koopmann -‐ CC BY-‐SA 2.5 via Wikimedia Commons
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
The SF&W Officer’s Crucial Challenges: Tension with policy-‐making
The policy-making cycle SF&W Process
26
policy initiation or
agenda setting
problem identification,
and evaluation: understanding,
impact, likelihood, timeline
policy alternatives
identification and
evaluations decision:
selection of the most
satisfactory alternative
selected alternative
operationalised (particular policy or set of policies)
policy implementation
starting with strategy and
strategic planning
policy and outcomes evaluation
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
The SF&W Officer’s Crucial Challenges: Facing Biases
27
• Meta-‐cogniEon deficits • Heuer idenEfies as biases are (Psychology of
Intelligence Analysis, Chapter 9): – CogniEve (“mental errors caused by our
simplified informaEon processing strategies”);
– Cultural/normaEve/belief-‐based at country, group, individual and insEtuEonal level;
– OrganizaEonal; – ResulEng from one's own self-‐interest
and personal history. • EmoEons-‐induced biases at individual and
group level.
Image analysis of Mona Lisa by the human Visual System, up to simple cells in visual cortex. Simplified. By Clock, CC-‐BY-‐SA-‐3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
The SF&W Officer’s Crucial Challenges Timeliness and Time
• Timeliness – Delivery to clients
• Lead Eme for response • A\enEon span
– When to start analysis of specific issue
• Depend on analysis – A proper core model – Onset of event (when)
• Timeline indicators, if proper core model but enough?
– DuraEon (how long) • Way forward
– Dynamic Bayesian Network – Dynamic social network analysis
and visualisaEon – Temporal Observatory (The Red
(Team) Analysis Society -‐ forthcoming
Light Cone By MissMJ (Own work) [CC BY-‐SA 3.0 (h\p://creaEvecommons.org/licenses/by-‐sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
HOW DO WE ANTICIPATE? PRACTICE
2-‐ Methodology and tools
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Defining quesEons and scope • Step 1: Exploratory stage = Horizon/environmental scanning (or
reconnaissance) – State of the art or literature review (SCIENCE );
– ObservaEon and gathering of facts;
– No facts from the future thus
• understanding at best underlying processes to idenEfy
• emerging (weak) signals
– PrioriEzaEon of issues (according to quesEon)
• Step 2: Create the model and scenarios – IdenEfy then link the variables and their interacEons (again SCIENCE)
– For each variable idenEfy possible outcomes/values with probabiliEes and Emeline (ideally)
– Synthesize variables, their outcomes and related probabiliEes and Emelines,
– Most ogen creaEon of narraEves (scenarios) , one day simulaEon?
– (opEonal) Policy and strategy opEons and alternaEves
– Delivery of foresight product/tool
• Step 3: Warning – CreaEon of indicators for warning
– Monitoring and verificaEon of scenarios and models
– Delivery of warning
How to do it? Valid for ALL ISSUES from earthquakes to terrorist a\acks to financial crises
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Step 2: Build the model Most Futures/foresight methodologies are actually graphs or grounded in graphs
• Structural analysis (Forrester 1961, Godet and Duperrin 1974)
• Eidos Parmenides
• Futures Wheel (Glenn, 1971)
• Futures Polygon (Pacinelli 2006): Futures wheel + probability of occurring within the Emeframe of reference.
• Relevance-‐Tree analysis (Zwicky, also ‘father’ of Morphological Analysis)
• Somehow too GBN (Global Business Network) scenarios (or most scenarios methods)
• But also staEsEcal forecasEng, indexes and lists… and thought processes?
31
Trend or Event
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Step 2-‐1: Build the model Making our inner cogniEve model explicit
• The core of most foresight and futures methodologies
– IdenEfy variables (drivers/factors) – IdenEfy linkages (influence) among
variables (not all methodologies)
– A\ribute values and characterisEcs to variables (and linkages)
• Result = a map (concept map or system map = a graph).
• CRUCIAL: Must Understand phenomena and their dynamics
32
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Step 2-‐1: Build the model
33
• Allows for Emeliness in analyEcal effort • Allows for integraEng Eme (Emeline indicators & more) and likelihood
• Allows for cooperaEon • Allows for innovaEon • Allows for other tools
Government Press Office (GPO) -‐ Chess at Camp David By h\p://www.flickr.com/people/69061470@N05 [CC BY-‐SA 3.0 (h\p://creaEvecommons.org/licenses/by-‐sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
• A scenario is a ficEonalized narraEve or outline of how the world will be at a (relaEvely) specific Eme in the future.
• Scenarios must be mutually exclusive (and ideally on the same “Eme plane” except if specified for sub-‐scenarios)
• Aim = outline the cone of plausibility
Step 2-‐2-‐ Build Scenarios
(Rutz, McEldowney and Taylor, Taylor, 1993: chapter 1 & fn 7)
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Step 2-‐2: Build Scenarios Classical approach
• Reduce the number of variables with influence analysis or ranking (if no links -‐ likelihood and impact, or impact and uncertainty)
• If Morphological Analysis, combine most important variables, if GBN combine 2 variables
• Then develop scenarios (how exactly is not explained)
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Step 2-‐2: Build Scenarios Best Prac0ce (a proper map)
• Revisited influence analysis to select variables • Use of ego networks to develop the narraEve
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Step 2-‐2: Build Set of Scenarios Classical approach
• 3 scenarios -‐ Herman Kahn (RAND)
• 4 scenarios excluding a business-‐as-‐usual (fear to see people doing nothing)
• Usually between 3/4 and 8/12 (MA)
Best Prac0ce
• As many as needed (balance according to resources, need)
• At criEcal juncture points (ogen decisions), then the need for sub-‐scenarios will appear.
• A set of scenarios, with likelihood, indicators… and 0meline?
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Step 2-‐2: Build Set of Scenarios Example Syria (2013)
38
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
Step 3 – Warn and Revise
Monitor your indicators
Use indicaEons (reality)
To Warn (use your scenarios)
To Revise (your set of scenarios)
The longer your set of scenario and indicators are useful, the more profitable your investment
(and the easier to convince management/clients)
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
"Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when acEon would be simple and effecEve, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel unEl the emergency comes, unEl self-‐preservaEon strikes its jarring gong—these are the features which consEtute the endless repeEEon of history. Winston Churchill, Air Parity Lost House of Commons, May 2, 1935
Winston Churchill with American generals on a balcony watching Allied vehicles crossing the Rhine. -‐ 25 March 1945 This is photograph BU 2246 from the collecEons of the Imperial War Museums (collecEon no. 4700-‐30)
Dr Helen
e Lavoix
The Re
d (Team) A
nalysis Society
https://www.redanalysis.org!
