Pandora Cell

Head of Division Mads Ecklon Centre for Preparedness Planning and Crisis Management Email: me@brs.dk Phone: +45 53643645 Twitter: @BRSmecklon

Centre for Preparedness Planning and Crisis Management

• Overview of risks, tendencies and capabilities

• Preparedness planning and crisis management methodology

• Coordination of planning efforts

• Evaluation – exercises and incidents

• Development of the crisis management system

Challenge to crisis management organisations

What has happend?

What are we doing about it?

What are the consequences?

What if..?

Crisis Management

Staff

Chief of Staff Secretariat

HR & Legal ICT & Logistics Operations Crisis

communication

Crisis management organisation

Frequent assumption

Impact

Time

”Things are under control and we’ll have this sorted out in no time”

Now

What if..?

Impact

Time

It just goes on?

Something else happens?

The current situation gets worse?

Recovery is (too) slow?

Now

Crisis Management

Staff

Chief of Staff Secretariat HR & Legal ICT & Logistics Operations Crisis

communication Pandora cell

Crisis management organisation

Pandora Cell

Aim

• Strengthen the ability of crisis management organisations to assess risks leading to deteriorations in the situation

• Preempting bad situations getting worse due to lack of attention to the immediate future

Setup

• Team leader, 3 – 4 experienced analysts + network of experts

Output

• Outline of problems that may worsen the current situation

• Tangible input to the decision making process during crisis situations

Methodology

History

The incident

Loss of control

Spreading

Resource shortages

Outline of problems that may worsen the current situation

Current situation

Input Analysis Output

Input Current situation

• Sources: situation reports, media, social media

History

• Lessons learned from previous incidents

• Frame of reference

• Sources: reports, risk registers, personal experiences etc.

Analysis

What happens to the situation if we amplify problems related to:

• The incident

• Loss of control

• Ressource shortages

• Spreading

Potential problems checklist The incident

Increased intensity Prolonged duration Inaccurate forecast Increased mortality Different from what was initially assumed Unpredictability […]

Loss of control

Breakdown of physical barriers Breakdown of procedures Breakdown of communication systems Inefficient crisis management Insufficient overview Insufficient situational awareness Insufficient understanding of affected’s needs and losses Insufficient focus on recovery Loss of credibility or reputation Loss of political support (local/national/internat.) Rumours/misinformation Anxiety/unrest Undesirable behavioural changes Active resistance towards authorities Riots […]

Resource shortages

Staff shortages Transport shortages Insufficient facilities, systems or equipment Insufficient time Exhaustion/fatigue Limited redundancy Fiscal limitations (short/long term) Insufficient leadership/prioritisation/delegation Insufficient rear area support Insufficient training/experience Insufficient technical capabilities Insufficient recovery capabilities […] Spreading

Breakdown/failure of critical functions Critical functions under pressure Knock-on effects btw. sectors Geographical (local/national/internat.) Socially Pollution/contamination […]

Analysis Potential problems categorized according to four generic scenarios

• The current situation getting worse

• The current situation goes on

• Recovery is (too) slow

• Something else happens

Output The current situation getting worse

• Number of possible infected livestock keeps increasing

• Tests confirm suspicion of foot-and-mouth disease

• Insufficient overview of the spread, undersized crisis management setup on all levels, low confidence in autorities (bad crisis management track record),

The current situation goes on

• The foot-and-mouth outbreak continues or re-emerges in spite of containment measures

Something else happens

• Other unrelated large scale incident requiring contibution from DEMA or the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration

Foot-and-mouth disease Exercise JAN 2015

Output

Foot-and-mouth disease exercise 20 JAN 15, 0800 (day 2)

Time

The current situation goes on The foot-and-mouth outbreak continues or re-emerges in spite of containment measures. Physical and mental exhaustion/fatigue among DEMA personnel, insufficient special equipment.

Something else happens Other unrelated large scale incident requiring contibution from DEMA or the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration.

The current situation getting worse Increased intensity. Number of possible infected livestock keeps increasing. Tests confirm suspicion of foot-and-mouth disease. Loss of containment due to insufficient overview of the spread, undersized crisis management setup on all levels, low confidence in autorities (bad crisis management track record), loss of backing from key stakeholders (agriculture and food industry), too slow operational response, active resistance against operational measures (quarantine, ban on transport, culling). Resource shortages. Too few DEMA-teams, insufficient crisis communication.

Recovery is (too) slow Not relevant at the current time.

Now

Impact