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2009
Trends in fertility in Paraguay
Patricia Lima PereiraEuropubhealth - Jagiellonian University Medical College
Krakow, November 2009
Content1. Sources of Information2. Trends in Fertility - Age Specific Fertility
Rate
3. Assessing Validity of Data
4. Improvement in Education5. Demographic Factors: Residence,
Education, Language Spoken, Age of Fist Marriage
6. Contraceptive Use Prevalence
7. Projection into the Future
8. Remaining Questions
1
Sources of information
1
Survey each 4 years From 1990 to 2008With assistance of the CDC
2
Trends in fertility
Evolution of Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
2
Age specific fertility rate, in three periods of time
Trends in fertility 2
19,2%
16%%19%%
51%%
1990
20082004
Sources: 1960–72: Census 1972. 1977: Encuesta de Prevalencia de Anticonceptivos (1977). 1979: Encuesta Nacional de Fecundidad (1979). 1982: Census1982. 1987: Encuesta Nacional de Planificación Familiar (1987). 1990: Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud (1990). 1995: Encuesta Nacional de Demografíay Salud Reproductiva (1995–96). 1998: Encuesta Nacional de Salud Materno Infantil (1998). 2004: Encuesta Demográfica y de Salud Materna Infantil (2004).
Trends in fertility 2
3
• “Fertility Decline in Paraguay” Kanako Ishida, Paul Stupp, and Mercedes Melian (Studies in Family Planning 2009; 40[3]: 227–234)
Assessing validity of data 3
Why such a dramatically decrease in just one decade?
if…
• There is no substantial changes in Paraguay during the past decade in other development indicators
• Same child mortality • Same socioeconomic levels • No political agenda for family planning programs
Assessing validity of data 3
They conclude that this decline is inversely related to
• a significant increase in the education level of Paraguayan women
• and increase in the prevalence of modern methods of contraception.
Assessing validity of data 3
4
Educational level of women 4
5
Other demographic factors 5Total Fertility Rate, according to residence, education level and
lenguage spoken in the household. 2008
5Residence
Education level
5
Language spoken in the home
30%GUARANI
36%SPANISH
ANDGUARANI
531%SPANISH
Age of first marriage 5married before 20 years of age
Aged 40 – 44
44% Aged 20 - 24
33%
6
Contraceptive prevalence
672,8%
among married women
6Contraceptive Prevalence Rates
among married women over time
Contraceptive prevalence rate
Total Fertility Rates and Contraceptive Prevalence Rates are closely and inversely correlated
7
Will this trend of fertility declinecontinue?
7
Reproductive Preference and Projection into the
Future7
Proyección de la Población Nacional por Sexo y Edad, 2000-2050. DGEEC 2005
7
Remaining questions8• What factors determinate that
contraceptive use became widely accepted by the various sectors of the Paraguayan population?
• Why women in Guarani-speaking homes report such higher mean number of children?
Thanks you
