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Hydropoli*cal Baseline of the Upper Jordan River The Associa+on of the Friends of Ibrahim Abd el Al Mark Zeitoun, Karim EidSabbagh, Muna Dajani, and Michael Talhami www.uea.ac.uk/ watersecurity/ publica2ons

Upper Jordan River Hyropolitical Baseline (ZeitounEidSabbaghDajaniTalhami)

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Hydro-­‐poli*cal  Baseline  of  the    Upper  Jordan  River  

The  Associa+on  of  the  Friends  of  Ibrahim  Abd  el  Al  

Mark  Zeitoun,  Karim  Eid-­‐Sabbagh,  Muna  Dajani,  and  Michael  Talhami    

www.uea.ac.uk/watersecurity/

publica2ons    

Has  a9en*on  been  diverted

 from  a  diversion  

scheme  that  was  never  realised?  

Why  a  hydropoli2cal  baseline?  

1.  Tensions  that  could  start  a  war  2.  Sustainable  water  and  economic  development  of  the  South  3.  Gaps  in  basic  data  4.  To  clarify  confusion  over  perceived  and  actual  issues  

an-­‐Nahar  21  Feb  1995,  in  Amery  (2000:  Figure  5.2)  

Lake  of  Tiberias  

Upper    Jordan  River  

Lower    Jordan  River  

Yarmouk  River  

Dead  Sea  

Focus  (instead)  on  the  Upper  Jordan  

 •  The  UJR  Flows:  loca2on,  quan2ty  and  quality?  •  How  asymmetric  is  the  distribu2on?  •  How  was  the  asymmetry  achieived,  and  how  is  it  maintained?  •  How  important  is  water  in  the  Lebanon-­‐Israel  conflict?  

•  partners  –  AFIAL,  and  Ibrahim  Abd  el  Al  •  research  team  –  Eid-­‐Sabbagh,  Dajani,  Talhami  •  historical  record,  interviews,  hydrological  records,  official  statements,  etc  •  mul2-­‐disciplinary  approach:    hydrology,  poli2cal  science,  interna2onal  

rela2ons,  law,  hydro-­‐geology,  hydro-­‐hegemony,  discourses  etc    

 to  understand  the  hydro-­‐poli2cal  landscape  with  a  view  to  legal  re-­‐

distribu2on  of  the  UJR  

Ques+ons  

Goal  

Method  

Upper  Jordan  River  Hydropoli2cal  Baseline  Study  

HYDROPOLITICAL  BASELINE

THEORY  

THE    FLOWS  

OCCUPIED  LANDS  

WATER  USE  

2006  Summer  War  

THE  RECORD  

POWER/  BORDERS  

CONCLUSIONS  DISCUSSION  

HYDROPOLITICAL  BASELINE

THEORY  

 1997  UN  Watercourses  Conven3on:  3  principles  •   ‘prior  no2fica2on’      •   ‘no  significant  harm’    •   ‘equitable  and  reasonable  use’  

 +  2008  Dra=  Aquifer  Ar3cles    

Interna2onal  Transboundary  Water-­‐sharing  norms  

•  ‘prior  use’  

•  state  sovereignty  (‘Harmon  Doctrine’)  

Interna*onal  Water  Law  

Others  

Ar2cle  52  (1)  of  the  Geneva  Conven2on’s  Addi2onal  Protocol  1:    ‘protec2on  of  civilian  objects  which  are  not  military  objec2ves’  

 Ar2cle  54  (Para.  2)  and  Ar2cle  55  of  Addi2onal  Protocol  1:    

 protec2on  of  the  “Natural  Environment”  and  “Objects  indispensable  to  the  survival  of  the  civilian  popula2on”  

 Interna2onal  Conven2on  on  Economic,  Social  and  Cultural  Rights  (Ar2cle  11(1)):  

Destruc2on  of  civilian  water  infrastructure  is  a  viola2on  of  the  right  to  an  adequate  standard  of  living.    

Other  interna2onal  norms  relevant  to  water:  IHL  and  HR  to  water  

see  Tignino  2010  

Human  Right  to  Water  

UN  General  Assembly  2010  Human  Right  to  Water:  “declares  the  right  to  safe  and  clean  drinking  water  and  sanita2on  as  a  human  right  that  is  essen2al  for  the  full  enjoyment  of  life  and  all  human  rights”  

UN  Commifee  on  Economic,  Social  and  Cultural  Rights:  General  Comment  15  

Interna*onal  Humanitarian  Law  

HYDROPOLITICAL  BASELINE

WATER  USE  

Use  in  2011  from  surface  water  and  groundwater  in  the  Upper  Jordan  River  Basin  and  related  aquifers:    Country    Flow      Use    Syria    

     Lebanon        Israel    

Current  Water  Use  

 [million  cubic  metres  per  year]  0        n/a  

~11  local  irriga2on  and  domes2c  [via  Wazzani  PS  +]  

360  –  520  Irriga2on  locally  and  in  Negev  desert  (+  through  wastewater  reuse),  and  domes2c  (1/3  of  total  freshwater  consump2on  comes  from  Lake  of  Tiberias)  [via  Na2onal  Water  Carrier]  

Lebanon  claim:    35-­‐55   [‘Johnston  alloca2on’  -­‐  equitable  and  reasonble  share]  

FNA  (1921d)  ETUDE  GENERALE  DE  LA  FRONTIERE  PROBABLE  vers  METELLI  et  du  pays  au  N.  et  au  SUD,  immédiatement  des  deux  côtés  de  (la)  fron+ère.  De  l'Inspecteur  des  Travaux  Publics  de  l'Etate  du  Grand  Liban.  French  Na2onal  Archives  in  Nantes,  Archives  des  postes  diploma2ques,  consulaires,  culturels  et  de  coopera2on:  Caisse  450;  Fonds  -­‐  "Beyrouth"/2e  versement;  Serie  -­‐  Service  Techniques  «  Hydraulique  ».  

The  1921  French  report  counted:      •  Six  water  mills,  located  on  the  Hasbani  mainstream  (named  or  located:  

near  Souk  al  Khan;  Maria  -­‐  just  upstream  of  Ghajar;  Moutran;  Hadj  Khalil;  and  Souk,  near  the  canal  of  the  Emir);    

•  Three  irriga*ons  canals  (one  downstream  of  Ghajar,  and  two  upstream  –  one  of  which  was  es2mated  at  5km  long  and  irriga2ng  an  es2mated  600  dunums  with  3,000  m3  per  day  in  summer  [~1.1  MCM/y]  on  the  “right  side  of  the  Hasbani”);  and  

•  Associated  dams  and  impoundments  for  the  above.  

(1921)  Prior  Water  Use  in  Lebanon  

+  Sursock  concession

 (1914)  

+  Suleiman  Bey  Nassif  and  Dr

 Fakhoury  (1928)  

HYDROPOLITICAL  BASELINE

THE    FLOWS  

HulehLake

Lake of Tiberias

Banias Springs

HasbaniSprings

WazzaniSprings

HasbaniRiver

LiddanRiver

BaniasRiver

UPPER JORDAN RIVER

LiddanSprings

LOWERJORDAN RIVER

Hasbaya

Metulla

Banias

Kuneitra

Ghajar

a) Pre-1916 Ottoman Empire

“El Ghadjar”(Ghajar)

“Metelli”(Metulla)

Banias“N

. Led

dan”

(Lid

dan

Rive

r)

“N. A

ssal”

(El A

sl st

ream

)

“N. B

anias”

(Banias River)

“N. H

asba

ni”

(Has

bani

Riv

er)

“Lac du Houlé”(Huleh Lake)

“Mer

dj A

youn

”(M

arja

youn

)

(FNA  1921)    

+Groundwater  

Hasbani  Liddan  

Banias  

Hasbani  

Liddan  

Banias  

Main  sources  of  the  Upper  Jordan  

(MacGregor  2002  [1870]:  175)  Source  of  the  Hasbani  –  at  Hasbaya  

Source  of  the  Hasbani  –  at  Hasbaya  

HasbaniBasin

Banias Basin

Liddan Basin

Hasbaya

ISRAEL

LEBANON

SYRIAOccupied SYRIANGOLAN

UNDOFAdministered

Zone

Mt Hermon

Cheba’a Farms

Mediterranean Sea

LEBANON

SYRIA

JORDAN

ISRAEL

Lake Tiberias Basin

El Wazzani

Banias

Banias R i ver

el Asl

Stream

Has

bani

River

Lidd

an R

iver

Ajou n Stream

Based on Rimmer and Salingar (2006). Data for basins, rivers and boundaries (except occupied Golan): Hartman 2008.

Mapping: Doris SummerBeirut, 2011

10 km

Metulla

Ghajar

Ajoun catchment

area

Main  sources  of  the  Upper  Jordan  

HasbaniBasin

Banias Basin

Liddan Basin

Hasbaya

ISRAEL

LEBANON

SYRIAOccupied SYRIANGOLAN

UNDOFAdministered

Zone

Mt Hermon

Cheba’a Farms

Mediterranean Sea

LEBANON

SYRIA

JORDAN

ISRAEL

Lake Tiberias Basin

El Wazzani

Banias

Banias R i ver

el Asl

Stream

Has

bani

River

Lidd

an R

iver

Ajou n Stream

Based on Rimmer and Salingar (2006). Data for basins, rivers and boundaries (except occupied Golan): Hartman 2008.

Mapping: Doris SummerBeirut, 2011

10 km

Metulla

Ghajar

Ajoun catchment

area

HSI  Yearbooks  1949-­‐1977,  1959-­‐2004,  and  1992-­‐2004,  and  Klein  (1998)  for  1977-­‐1992.    

1949  –  2004  annual  river  flows  

!

Banias  114  (+/-­‐  30%)  !

Hasbani  143  (+/-­‐  43%)  

!

Liddan  241  (+/-­‐  10%)  

[million  cubic  metre  per  year,  measured  upstream  of  their  confluence  point]  

most  of  the  base  flow  provided  by  the  Wazzani  Springs  

base  flow  much  larger  +  more  secure    

(Kafri  and  Lang  1979,  from  Brielmann  2008:  Fig.  10)  (labels  added).    

Transboundary  groundwater  flows  –  rough  es2mate   250  –  350  [million  cubic  metre  per  year]  

Banias  Hasbani  Liddan  Ajoun  Groundwater  

114      (variable,  vulnerable  to  pollu2on)  143      (variable,  vulnerable  to  pollu2on)    241      (stable,  somewhat  vulnerable  to  pollu2on)    (?)  250  –  350    (stable,  less  vulnerable)  

Summary  of  the  Upper  Jordan  River  Flows  

[million  cubic  metres  per  year]  

HYDROPOLITICAL  BASELINE

POWER/  BORDERS  

“Mtelle”(Metulla)

B anias

(Kuneitra)

par l’accord Sykes-Picot”

”Lac de Houlé ”(Hula Marshes)

Sykes-Picot Agreement)

demandée par the G’t anglais”

(Border adjustment requestedby the English Goverment)

“Koneirtra”

So[  Power:  1920  Hydropoli2cal  Border  Shiv  –  lobbied  for  

HulehLake

Lake of Tiberias

Banias Springs

HasbaniSprings

WazzaniSprings

HasbaniRiver

LiddanRiver

BaniasRiver

UPPER JORDAN RIVER

LiddanSprings

LOWERJORDAN RIVER

Hasbaya

Metulla

Banias

Kuneitra

Ghajar

BRITISH MANDATEPALESTINE

FRENCH MANDATESYRIA

FRENCH MANDATELEBANON

d) 1923 border

Border  1923  -­‐  1967  

So[  Power:  1923  Hydropoli2cal  Border  Shiv  –  obtained  

1953  Syria  army  thwarts  Israeli  afempt  

(successful)  

1964  Israel  completes  NWC  at  Tiberias  

(status  quo  ‘2l  present)  

1965    PLO  afacks  NWC  (unsuccessful)  

1965    Israel  army  thwarts  diversion  afempt  (successful)  

1953  Israel  afempts    

construc2on  of  NWC  from  B’nat  Yacoub  Bridge  

1965  Syria  afempts  to  divert  Hasbani  away  from  NWC  

Hard  Power:  military  ac2on  over  water  1950s  &  1960s  

Cheba’a

Farms

HulehLake

Lake of Tiberias

Banias Springs

HasbaniSprings

WazzaniSprings

HasbaniRiver

LiddanRiver

BaniasRiver

UPPER JORDAN RIVER

LiddanSprings

LOWERJORDAN RIVER

Hasbaya

Metulla

Banias

Kuneitra

Ghajar

ISRAEL

LEBANON

SYRIA

e) post 1948 border+ 1967 Israeli occupation of Golan

Cheba’a

Farms

HulehLake

Lake of Tiberias

Banias Springs

HasbaniSprings

WazzaniSprings

HasbaniRiver

LiddanRiver

BaniasRiver

UPPER JORDAN RIVER

LiddanSprings

LOWERJORDAN RIVER

Hasbaya

Metulla

Banias

Kuneitra

Ghajar

ISRAEL

LEBANON

SYRIA

e) post 1948 border+ 1967 Israeli occupation of Golan

1967  Israeli  occupa*on  of  Golan  +  

(1920  borders  achieved)  

Hard  Power:  Military  acquisi2on  and  relinquishing  of  territory:  a  water  impera2ve?  

Cheba’a

Farms

HulehLake

Lake of Tiberias

Banias Springs

HasbaniSprings

WazzaniSprings

HasbaniRiver

LiddanRiver

BaniasRiver

UPPER JORDAN RIVER

LiddanSprings

LOWERJORDAN RIVER

Hasbaya

Metulla

Banias

Kuneitra

Ghajar

ISRAEL

LEBANON

SYRIA

f ) Maximum Israeloccupation border (<2000)

2000:  (near)  return  to  1967  borders  

1982  –  2000    (maximum  occupa*on)  

Was  WATER  an  interest  in  the  

territorial  conquests  (as  in  the  1950s)  ??  

HYDROPOLITICAL  BASELINE

OCCUPIED  LANDS  

Interests  in  CHEBA’A  

1.  Water  

2.  Ski  Resorts  

3.  Military-­‐strategic  

Water,  Ski-­‐ing,  and  military  in  Cheba’a  

[all  images  taken  from  Google  Earth,  February  2012]  

Lebanon  

Occupied    Cheba’a  Farms  

4.  site  of  Abraham’s    Covenant  of  the  Pieces  

Religious  sites  in  Cheba’a  

[all  images  taken  from  Google  Earth,  February  2012]  

Summary  of  the  interests  in  occupa2on  of  Cheba’a  

Water  Military  Ski-­‐ing  Religious  

1.    -­‐    ?  2.    -­‐    ?    3.    -­‐    ?  4.    -­‐    Ski-­‐ing  

Priority  ?  

Water  is  a  component,  alongside  other  components  (not  a  primary  driver).    Especially  Liddan  recharge  area;  But  the  volumes  involved  are  not  cri2cal  …  

   à  Israel  ‘water-­‐security’  discourse  (discussed  in  the  UJR  Study)  

Interests  in  GHAJAR  

Lebanon Syria  -­‐  Golan

(occupied  by  Israel)

Ghajar  -­‐  north

(occupied  by  Israel)Ghajar  -­‐  south

Wazzani  Springs

Hasbani  River

Lebanon

©  Sébas2en  Pellissier    

Occupa2on  of  Ghajar  /  Wazzani  Springs  

Cheba’a  (Lebanon)  

unofficial  Israeli  response:  Shimon  Peres  -­‐  “We  do  not  want  a  flare-­‐up,  but  we  will  not  give  up  water”  (Sedan  2002)  

official  Israeli  response:    “  …unilateral  ac2on  by  Lebanon  would  be  unacceptable  to  Israel.”  

 +  heavy  winter  rains:    •  Lebanon  built  Wazzani  PS,  but:  •  right  to  abstract  lev  unresolved...  

Lebanese  response:    ‘Lebanon  has  right  to  a  legal  share’  

[see  Maternowski  2006,  Alles  2010]  Wazzani  Springs  Pumping  Sta2on  –  War  of  Words  in  2002  

è  US,  UN  and  EU  media2on`  

Hasbani River +!

Wazzani  Springs  Pumping  Sta2on   on  Hasbani  River  (completed  2002)  

Ralf  Klingbeil,  2010  

Design  Capacity:  4.4  MCM/y    (<14%  of  Lebanese  claim,  <1%  of  Israel  abstrac2ons  from  Tiberias)  

Actual  Abstrac+ons:  less  (lack  of  diesel,  maintenance)    

Summary  of  the  interests  in  Wazzani  Springs  /  occupying  Ghajar  

Water  Military  Ski-­‐ing  Religious?  Will  of  the  residents?  

1.    -­‐    ?  2.    -­‐    ?    3.    -­‐    ?  4.    -­‐    ?    

Priority  ?  

Water  is  a  component,  alongside  other  components  (not  a  primary  driver)    Flows  of  Wazzani  more  imporant  than  Hasbani…  but  s2ll  not  cri2cal….    

   à  Israel  ‘water-­‐security’  discourse  (discussed  in  the  UJR  Study)  

HYDROPOLITICAL  BASELINE

2006  Summer  War  

Cheba’a

Yaroun

Khiam

Insar

Jbaa

Blida

Zrariye

Hasbaiya

Houla

Chaqra

Blat

Rmaich

Qlaiaa

Kfar Chouba

Zabqine

Babliye

Hebbariye

Aabbassiye

Jouaya

Taibe

Yohmor

Tyre

Aaitaroun

Doueir

Naqoura

Rihane

Kfar Sir

Kfour

Aabba

Sarba

Barich

Sarafand

Aalma ech Chaab

Kaoukaba

Aanqoun

Aadloun

Kfar Kila

Jibchit

Merouaniye

Mari

Soultanieh

Insariye

Aalmane

Harouf

Markaba

Arzay

El Majidiye

Kfar Roummane

Zefta

El Biyada

Habbouch

Chihine

Ez Zahrani

Bent Jbail

Aaramta

Barti

Qasmiye

Mansouri

Toufahta

Jarjouaa

Fardis

Braiqaa

Aazze

Marjayoun

Mlikh

Kharayeb

Qraiye

Dlafy

Aita Ech Chaab

Majdel Selm

Ebel es Saqi

Borj ech Chmali

Bedias

Kfar Melki

Aadaisse

Baissariye

Maaroub

Deir Qanoun

Bourghliye

Jebbain

Yarine Maroun er Ras

Hassaniye

Tair Harfa

Khartoum

Sidon

Kfar Hamam

Ain Jerfa

Aaddoussiye

Saksakiye

Tanbourit

Haret SaidaDarb es Sim

Louaiziye

Kfar Jarra

Siddiqine

Wazzani

Ramiya

Chama’a MheibibBeit Yahoun

QantaraGhandourieh

Aitit Majdel

QaouzahBeit Lif

Sribbine

Aita El-Jabel

Tallousa

Baraachit

S T A T E B O U N D A R I E SC a z a

Boundaries of occupied Cheba’a Farms

Damages to housing units: UNHCR 2006 and GOL 2006; Damages to water reservoirs: SLWE (2006), Water and Sanitation Cluster 2006 (UNICEF). Administrative boundaries: Database of the National Master Plan for Lebanon, 2005. Mapping: Doris Summer, 2011.

0 5 10 15  km

equivalent to 1,800 units

Totally destroyedPartially DestroyedSeverly damaged

Destruction of Housing Units

Damages to Public Water Reservoirs1 Reservoi Damaged Reservoir

Destroyed Reservoirr

2 Reservoirs3 Reservoirs4 Reservoirs

S Y R I A

I S R A E L

Israel  Direct  damage:  •  Safad  WWTP  Indirect  damage:  •  3  WWTP  (e.g.  Haifa)  Lebanon  Direct  damage:  •  20  pumping  sta2ons  •  thousands  of  roovop  tanks  •  100s  of  km  distrib’n  pipes  •  200-­‐700  transformers  •  55  public  reservoirs  etc  +  indirect  damage  

Some  damages  to  water  infrastructure  in  Lebanon  and  Israel  

Typical  drinking  water  system  in  southern  Lebanon  

Zeitoun  

Zeitoun  

2006  Summer  War  

Zeitoun  Water  reservoirs  in  Lebanon  damaged  during  the  2006  Summer  War,  showing  a  range  of  the  nature  of  the  damages.  Siddiquine:  no  direct  damage  to  reservoir;  Chama'a:  ‘indiscriminate’  and  ‘deliberate’;  Ramiya:  ‘deliberate’.  

Cheba’a

Yaroun

Khiam

Insar

Jbaa

Blida

Zrariye

Hasbaiya

Houla

Chaqra

Blat

Rmaich

Qlaiaa

Kfar Chouba

Zabqine

Babliye

Hebbariye

Aabbassiye

Jouaya

Taibe

Yohmor

Tyre

Aaitaroun

Doueir

Naqoura

Rihane

Kfar Sir

Kfour

Aabba

Sarba

Barich

Sarafand

Aalma ech Chaab

Kaoukaba

Aanqoun

Aadloun

Kfar Kila

Jibchit

Merouaniye

Mari

Soultanieh

Insariye

Aalmane

Harouf

Markaba

Arzay

El Majidiye

Kfar Roummane

Zefta

El Biyada

Habbouch

Chihine

Ez Zahrani

Bent Jbail

Aaramta

Barti

Qasmiye

Mansouri

Toufahta

Jarjouaa

Fardis

Braiqaa

Aazze

Marjayoun

Mlikh

Kharayeb

Qraiye

Dlafy

Aita Ech Chaab

Majdel Selm

Ebel es Saqi

Borj ech Chmali

Bedias

Kfar Melki

Aadaisse

Baissariye

Maaroub

Deir Qanoun

Bourghliye

Jebbain

Yarine Maroun er Ras

Hassaniye

Tair Harfa

Khartoum

Sidon

Kfar Hamam

Ain Jerfa

Aaddoussiye

Saksakiye

Tanbourit

Haret SaidaDarb es Sim

Louaiziye

Kfar Jarra

Siddiqine

Wazzani

Ramiya

Chama’a MheibibBeit Yahoun

QantaraGhandourieh

Aitit Majdel

QaouzahBeit Lif

Sribbine

Aita El-Jabel

Tallousa

Baraachit

S T A T E B O U N D A R I E SC a z a

Boundaries of occupied Cheba’a Farms

Damages to housing units: UNHCR 2006 and GOL 2006; Damages to water reservoirs: SLWE (2006), Water and Sanitation Cluster 2006 (UNICEF). Administrative boundaries: Database of the National Master Plan for Lebanon, 2005. Mapping: Doris Summer, 2011.

0 5 10 15  km

equivalent to 1,800 units

Totally destroyedPartially DestroyedSeverly damaged

Destruction of Housing Units

Damages to Public Water Reservoirs1 Reservoi Damaged Reservoir

Destroyed Reservoirr

2 Reservoirs3 Reservoirs4 Reservoirs

S Y R I A

I S R A E L

2006  Summer  War  

Israel  Direct  damage:  •  Safad  WWTP  Indirect  damage:  •  3  WWTP  (e.g.  Haifa)  Lebanon  Direct  damage:  •  20  pumping  sta2ons  •  thousands  of  roovop  tanks  •  100s  of  km  distrib’n  pipes  •  200-­‐700  transformers  •  55  public  reservoirs  etc  +  indirect  damage  

South  Lebanon  Water  Establishment  (SLWE  2006).  

2006  Summer  War   Reservoir  part  of  Wazzani  Springs  project  

Water  was  target  of  war  Water  as  tool  of  war  Viola*ons  of  Interna2onal  Humanitarian  Law  Viola*on  of  Human  Right  to  Water    à  erosion  of  interna2onal  norms  [sov  power]    Hydropoli2cal  mo2ve  (Wazzani  PS):    indirect    [sov  power]  

Summary  of  water  and  2006  Summer  War  

HYDROPOLITICAL  BASELINE

THE  RECORD  

1916  -­‐  1948 1948-­‐  1967 1967  -­‐  1978 1978  -­‐  2000 2000  -­‐-­‐>

IsraelLebanonSyria

British Mandate PalestineFrench Mandate Syria / Lebanon

2000 20021978196719481916

0%

100%

0%

100%

0%

100%

MILITARY/

POLITICAL

EVENTS

1948  Nakba,

1978  -­‐  2000 2002 2006

1916

1920

TREATIES

1954-­‐561921 1993

1964

1965

1923

Control  over  Territory  

Control  over  Water  

Use  of  Water  

HYDROPOLITICAL  BASELINE

CONCLUSIONS  

Biophysical        Academic                Poli*cal  

Some  conclusions  

•  Significant  data  gaps  in  surface  and  groundwater  flows,  quality  and  use  •  Groundwater  flows  are  more  important  than  river  flows  

•  Control  is  achieved  through  sov  then  hard  power,  and  maintained  by  sov  (deterrent)  power  (‘remote  control’)  •  Control  of  water  without  control  of  territory  (à  de-­‐territorialisa2on  debates)  •  Israel’s  hegemonic  posi2on  in  the  basin  has  limits  (a  hegemon  without  hegemony?)  

•  Control  of  the  Hasbani  is  centred  on  the  Wazzani  Springs/Ghajar  •  Control  of  the  Upper  Jordan  is  centred  on  the  Liddan  and  Banias/Cheba’a    •  There  is  a  ‘historic  debt’  /  grounds  or  a  ‘prior  use’  argument  for  re-­‐distribu2on  (on  top  of  the  legal  argument)  • Water  re-­‐distribu2on  prevented  by  Israeli  ‘water-­‐security’  discourse    

•  Israeli  interests  /  dependance  on  UJR  is  changing  (desalina2on);  

• Water  conflict  will  shiv  with  shiving  poli2cal  context;  

•  Poten2al  flashpoints  of  armed  conflict:  groundwater  development;  water  quality  issues  (olive  oil  residue);  

•  re-­‐ac2ve  diplomacy  at  such  2mes  will  constrain  issues,  not  resolve  them;  

•  Asymmetry  can  be  entrenched,  if  basin-­‐wide  approach  not  taken.  

Some  conclusions  (con’t.)    -­‐  last  slide!  

Future  

Mark  Zeitoun,  Karim  Eid-­‐Sabbagh,  Muna  Dajani,  and  Michael  Talhami    

Thank-­‐you  !  

[email protected]  

For  more  analysis  and  references:  download  the  Upper  Jordan  River  Hydropoli2cal  Baseline  from  the  Publica2ons  page  of  the  UEA  Water  Security  Research  Centre:  www.uea.ac.uk/watersecurity/publica2ons  

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Water  in  the  Middle  East:  A  Geography  of  Peace.  Wolf,  A.  and  H.  Amery.  Aus2n,  USA,  University  of  Texas  Press.  Brielmann,  Heike  (2008).  Recharge  and  discharge  mechanism  and  dynamics  in  the  mountainous  northern  Upper  

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HSI  (1977).  Hydrological  Yearbook  1949  -­‐  1977.  (Hebrew),  Jerusalem,  Hydrological  Service  of  Israel.    HSI  (2004).  Hydrological  Yearbook  1959  -­‐  2004.  (Hebrew),  Jerusalem,  Hydrological  Service  of  Israel.    Klein,  Michael  (1998).  "Water  Balance  of  the  Upper  Jordan  River  Basin."  Water  Interna+onal  23(4):  244  -­‐  248.    Lukes,  Steven  (2005  [1974]).  Power:  A  Radical  View  -­‐  2nd  edi2on.  Hampshire,  UK,  Palgrave  MacMillan.  MacGregor,  John  (2002  [1870]).  The  Rob  Roy  on  the  Jordan  -­‐  The  extraordinary  19th  Century  tale  of  the  first  canoeist  

to  explore  the  Middle  East  and  Africa.  London,  UK,  republished  by  The  Long  Riders'  Guild  Press,  2002.  Also  published  by  Harper&Brothers,  Publishers,  New  York  in  1870,  under  the  2tle:  The  Rob  Roy  on  the  Jordan,  Nile,  Red  Sea,  and  Gennesareth,  &c:    A  Canoe  Cruise  in  Pales2ne  and  Egypt,  and  the  Waters  of  Damascus.  

Sedan,  Gil  (2002).  U.S.,  Israel  seek  to  defuse  tense  Lebanese  water  plan.  J  Weekly.com,  Jewish  Telegraphic  Agency.    SLWE  (2006).  Damages  to  the  Water  Sector  in  the  South  of  Lebanon  from  the  2006  War.  Saida,  South  Lebanon  Water  

Establishment.    Tignino,  Mara  (2010).  "Water,  interna2onal  peace,  and  security."  Interna+onal  Review  of  the  Red  Cross  -­‐  

Humanitarian  debate:  law,  policy,  ac+on  92(September  2010).    Zeitoun,  Mark  (2007).  Viola2ons,  Opportuni2es  and  Power  along  the  Jordan  River:    Security  Studies  Theory  Applied  

to  Water  Conflict.  Water  Resources  in  the  Middle  East:  Israeli-­‐Pales+nian  Water  Issues  -­‐  From  Conflict  to  Coopera+on.  Shuval,  H.  and  H.  Dweik.  Heidelberg,  Germany,  Springer  Verlag.  213  -­‐  224.  

Zeitoun,  Mark,  Karim  Eid-­‐Sabbagh,  Muna  Dajani  and  Michael  Talhami  (2012).  Hydro-­‐poli+cal  Baseline  of  the  Upper  Jordan  River.  Beirut,  Associa2on  of  the  Friends  of  Ibrahim  Abd  el  Al.