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Superfit Broadband
Peter Thompson Predictable Network Solutions Ltd
PREDICTABLE
NETWORK
SOLUTIONS
© 2014 All Rights Reserved
The only network performance science
company in the world.
PREDICTABLE
NETWORK
SOLUTIONS
Why are we here?
Our message
Superfast ≠ Superfit
Cosmic Ludic Ecological Speed of light
Statistical multiplexing
Pricing policy
Constraints on everything
My offer to you today
• Help you to understand the (ludic) mismatch between:
– What people are aspiring to achieve (demand)
– What you are actually doing (supply)
• Propose how to close the gap
– Technically grounded in reality
– Practical advice on how to proceed
This may be a difficult message to hear
My three key messages
1. Speed (‘bandwidth’) is no longer a helpful model for broadband.
2. The pursuit of ever more speed means the broadband business is in a death spiral.
3. You need to change your model to survive.
Why trust in increasing speed is now misplaced
Pre-IP Early IP Now
Pack
et d
elay
Why trust in increasing speed is now misplaced
G
Pre-IP Early IP Now
The speed of light is not changing
Geography
Cosmic constraint
Pack
et d
elay
Why trust in increasing speed is now misplaced
Historically speed did correlate with
more value
G
S
Pre-IP Early IP Now
Geography
Serialisation speed
Ecological constraint
Pack
et d
elay
Why trust in increasing speed is now misplaced
G
S
V Variability
Pre-IP Early IP Now
Now dominates application
performance
Serialisation speed
Geography
Ludic constraint
Pack
et d
elay
Networks are ‘trading spaces’
How ‘V’ is distributed among competing streams
is how demand is matched to the supply
COSTS
REVENUE
REQUIRES
ENABLES
-
+
COSTS
REVENUE
REQUIRES
ENABLES
Supply
Demand
COSTS
REVENUE
DATA FLOWS
APPLICATION OUTCOMES
FIT-FOR-PURPOSE EXPERIENCE
REQUIRES
ENABLES
Supply
Demand
COSTS
REVENUE
DATA FLOWS
APPLICATION OUTCOMES
FIT-FOR-PURPOSE EXPERIENCE
POWERED MECHANISMS
TRANSMISSION RESOUCE
REQUIRES
ENABLES
UNPOWERED TIN
Supply
Demand
COSTS
REVENUE
SCHEDULING
Scheduling
This is the trading space where supply and demand meet
and ‘V’ is distributed
Your problem: magical thinking
When there is excessive delay, you are
trying to make V disappear by building more capacity rather than distributing it
through scheduling
Result: telecoms is a capital killer
Source: PwC http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/communications/publications/assets/pwc_capex_final_21may12.pdf
What has to change?
NOW FUTURE
BANDWIDTH
Selling commodity
inputs
What has to change?
NOW FUTURE
BANDWIDTH
Selling commodity
inputs
SCHEDULING
Selling differentiated
application outcomes
COSTS
REVENUE
FLOWS
OUTCOMES
FIT-FOR-PURPOSE EXPERIENCE
REQUIRES
ENABLES
Characterise demand
COSTS
REVENUE
FLOWS
OUTCOMES
FIT-FOR-PURPOSE EXPERIENCE
MECHANISMS
TRANSMISSION
REQUIRES
ENABLES
TIN
Construct matching supply
Characterise demand
COSTS
REVENUE
FLOWS
OUTCOMES
FIT-FOR-PURPOSE EXPERIENCE
MECHANISMS
TRANSMISSION
REQUIRES
ENABLES
TIN
SCHEDULING
Construct matching supply
Characterise demand
Trade resources
Five class resource trading model has rational economics
Sup
erio
r St
and
ard
Su
perio
r Stan
dard
Economy
Sup
erio
r St
and
ard
Sup
erior
Stand
ard
Economy
Sup
erio
r St
and
ard
Sup
erior
Stand
ard
Economy
Drives capacity planning
(primary service)
cost
Drives resilience & redundancy
capacity planning
cost
Drives
revenue
What operators should be asking themselves
1. Why am I trying to solve my scheduling problems with more capacity?
2. For my key customer applications, am I delivering the network supply that enables good quality of experience?
– i.e. am I delivering the right loss and delay?
3. Given that there is a trading space, am I constructing and offering the right data transport products?
What regulators should be asking themselves
1. What is the value that I am getting from demanding more speed?
2. Measurement is de facto regulation, therefore am I measuring the right thing?
3. What are the key applications that need managed QoE and cost to drive societal benefits?
Summary: superfit, not superfast
Work with the ludic constraints
Face a crisis of legitimacy
or
