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PotashCorp.com BAML Global Agriculture and Chemicals Conference March 2, 2016 Wayne Brownlee Executive Vice President and CFO

BAML 2016 Conference

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Page 1: BAML 2016 Conference

PotashCorp.com

BAML Global Agriculture and Chemicals Conference

March 2, 2016

Wayne BrownleeExecutive Vice President and CFO

Page 2: BAML 2016 Conference

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or “forward-looking information” (“forward-looking statements”). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements often contain words such as “should,” “could,” “expect,” “may,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions as set forth in this document, including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, unexpected developments with respect to any of the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur and petrochemical markets; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; risks and uncertainties related to any operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve, including mine and inventory shutdowns; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; changes in capital markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; risks related to reputational loss; the occurrence of a major safety incident; inadequate insurance coverage for a significant liability; inability to obtain relevant permits for our operations; catastrophic events or malicious acts, including terrorism; certain complications that may arise in our mining process, including water inflows; risks and uncertainties related to our international operations and assets; our ownership of non-controlling equity interests in other companies; our prospects to reinvest capital in strategic opportunities and acquisitions; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; security risks related to our information technology systems; imprecision in reserve estimates; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; earnings and the decisions of taxing authorities which could affect our effective tax rates; increases in the price or reduced availability of the raw materials that we use; our ability to attract, develop, engage and retain skilled employees; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital expenditures; timing and impact of capital expenditures; the impact of further innovation; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; and violations of our governance and compliance policies. These risks and uncertainties, as well as additional risks and uncertainties, are discussed in more detail under the headings “Forward-Looking Statements,” “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2015 and in our other filings with the US Securities Exchange Commission and Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements included in this presentation are given only as at the date hereof and PotashCorp disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Slide #2

Page 3: BAML 2016 Conference

PotashCorp Overview

World’s largest fertilizer producer by capacity; #1 in potash and among the largest in nitrogen and phosphate.Canadian potash operations and strategic offshore investments

position us to benefit from growth markets.World-class nitrogen and phosphate businesses focused on

historically more-stable feed and industrial markets.

Slide #3Source: PotashCorp

* Picadilly, New Brunswick potash operations currently in care-and-maintenance

*

Page 4: BAML 2016 Conference

PotashCorp Earnings Profile

Slide#4

Growth Expected to be Driven by Potash

Source: PotashCorp

59%

41%

Potash Nitrogen & Phosphate

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

63%

41%

21%

Percentage Net Sales – 5 Year Avg.

Gross Margin Breakdown Gross Margin %

5 Year Avg. (2011-2015)

Page 5: BAML 2016 Conference

0.1

24.32.9

0.1

Cumulative Spending (2006-2015) - US$ Billions

2

Ending Cash 

Balance(Dec, 2015)

ShareBuybacks

-6.8

Dividends

-4.7

EquityInvestments

& Other

-1.3

OpportunityCapital

-9.7

SustainingCapital

-4.7

TotalFunds

Available

27.3

Financing Activities

OperatingCash Flows

OpeningCash

(Jan, 2006)

Maintenance Spending

17%Invested in Growth

41%Returned to Shareholders

42%

Capital Allocation

17% 36% 5% 17% 25%% Allocation by Category:

Type of Usage:

Cash Sources Cash Uses

Slide #5

Growth Opportunities and Return to Shareholders Prioritized Over Past Decade

10-Year Historical Cash Flow Summary

Source: PotashCorp

Page 6: BAML 2016 Conference

Potash Fundamentals

Page 7: BAML 2016 Conference

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-1

5

Apr-15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5Ju

l-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan-1

6

Feb-16

50

75

100

125 Crop Price Index* Fertilizer Price Index**

* Based on corn, soybean and wheat prices (weighted by global consumption).

** Based on urea, DAP and KCl prices (weighted by global consumption).

Price Index (January 2015 Average = 100)

Crop and Fertilizer Price IndexEntering 2016, Fertilizer Represents Even Greater Value for Farmers

Source: Bloomberg, Fertilizer Week

Decline in fertilizer prices relative to

crop prices presents opportunity for

farmers

Slide #7

Page 8: BAML 2016 Conference

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

F-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500 Return over operating and land costs

US$/Acre

Farmer Returns Remain Supportive; 2016 Expected to Surpass Prior Year

US and Brazil Crop Returns

Source: USDA, IMEA, Conab, PotashCorp

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

E*0

100

200

300

400

500

600 Return over operating and land costs

Reals/AcreUS Corn Brazil Soybean

* 2015E represents the 2015/16 Brazilian crop year.

Slide #8

Page 9: BAML 2016 Conference

US Canada China India Africa0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

* 2013-2015 average

Source: IFA, USDA, FAO, PotashCorp

Yield – Bushels/acre*

US Canada China India Africa0

50

100

150

200

250

300N P2O5 K2O

Application Rate - Pounds/acre

Opportunity to Improve Yields Through Increased Potash Applications

Corn Fertilization Rates and Yield

P2O5 K2O

Slide #9

Page 10: BAML 2016 Conference

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

F20

18F20

20F

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000Potash ConsumptionCrop Production

Potash Consumption – Million Tonnes KCl

Crop Production Driving Potash Consumption

Crop Production – Million Tonnes

Crop Production Growth Expected to Underpin Potash Growth

Source: Fertecon, CRU, FAO, PotashCorp

Slide #10

Crop Production

Growth

2000 2020FApplication Intensity

~40

~70

Potash Consumption Drivers – Million Tonnes KCl

1

2

1

2

Driven by increasing global population and improved diets; additional ~1.6 billion people from 2000 to 2020FCertain markets moving toward more balanced fertilizer application practices and growth in potassium-intensive crops

Page 11: BAML 2016 Conference

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

F20

18F

2020

F0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 ShipmentsPOT Shipment Forecast RangeCRU Shipment ForecastOperational Capability*

Million Tonnes KCl

Supply/Demand Expected to be Relatively Balanced; Similar to Historical Levels

Global Potash Supply and Demand

* Estimated annual achievable production level from existing operations; announced probable and possible projects; assuming typical ramp-up periods for new capacity. Probable and possible projects based on PotashCorp’s view of project probabilities.

Demand Highlights (2016F)

China: 13.5 – 14.5mmt • Underlying consumption continues to grow, but elevated

inventories to begin the year expected to reduce shipments

India: 4.2 – 4.7mmt• Expect modest demand growth with a normalized

monsoon

Other Asia: 8.5 – 8.8mmt • Supportive crop economics and agronomic need

expected to support steady demand

Latin America: 10.8 – 11.3mmt• Favorable crop economics expected to keep demand at

elevated levels despite credit and currency headwinds

North America: 9.2 – 9.7mmt• Low dealer inventories and large nutrient requirements

anticipated to support an increase in shipments

Slide #11

Page 12: BAML 2016 Conference

Positioned to Succeed

Page 13: BAML 2016 Conference

Aligning Potash Capability and Optimizing Production Toward Lowest-Cost Facilities

Asset Optimization

Source: PotashCorp

US$ - Per Tonne (Potash)

Align Capability With Market Conditions• Accelerated closure of Penobsquis and indefinite

suspension of potash mining at Picadilly aligns with our approach of matching supply to demand

• Managing inventory levels through SK production downtime (Dec 2015 and Mar 2016)

Optimize production• Shifting NB production to lower-cost SK mines

expected to save $40-$50 million beginning in 2016**• Cash costs* at Rocanville – our largest, most efficient

mine – anticipated to be approximately $45 per tonne when fully ramped

• Expect to receive incremental Canpotex allotment by 2H 2017

Our Focus

Slide #13

2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F0

25

50

75

100

125

150Cash-related Cost of Goods Sold*Depreciation and Amortization

* Cash costs refers to total cost of goods sold less depreciation and amortization. Forecasted amounts assume: Rocanville production of approximately 3 million tonnes in 2016 and 5.0 million tonnes in 2017; FX rate of CDN 1.37 per 1 USD in 2016 and 1.40 per 1 USD in 2017; 2016 volumes consistent with guidance and sales volumes of 9.5mmt in 2017 (for illustrative purposes only; actual 2017 sales expectations may differ).** Excluding severance and transition charges in 2016

Page 14: BAML 2016 Conference

Source: PotashCorp

Lower-cost Supplier in North America Given Geographic and Logistical Positioning

Logistical Optimization

Saskatchewan Operations• Five lower-cost potash operations in

Saskatchewan• Positioned to efficiently serve North America by

rail

Slide #14

North American Production/Distribution• Extensive and highly efficient North American

infrastructure, including:o 4,300 specialized potash railcars

o Nearly 200 owned/leased potash distribution points

o Hammond, IN warehouse/distribution facility enables by-pass of Chicago rail congestion

Hammond, IN

Rocanville, SK

Page 15: BAML 2016 Conference

Source: PotashCorp

Lower-cost Supplier to Offshore Markets Given Port and Logistical Capabilities

Logistical Optimization

Slide #15

Canpotex Positioning• One of Canada’s premier exporting companies,

with a dedicated sales force and service to approximately 35 countries

• Economies of scale, efficiencies and superior customer service through:

o 5,400 specialized potash railcars and a state-of-the-art railcar maintenance facility

o Access to ports on East and West coasts (Vancouver, BC, Portland, WA and Saint John, NB) oFleet of ocean vessels

• Member company distribution investments in key markets, including Brazil, China, etc.

Our Focus

Page 16: BAML 2016 Conference

2015 2016F 2017F*0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000 CAPEXDividend

Declining Capital Expenditures and Dividend Realignment Enhance Flexibility

Capital Profile and Dividend

Source: PotashCorp

US$ BillionsSupport Existing Asset Base

• Safety, longevity and competitiveness of assets a top priority

• Sustaining capital expenditures of $600-$800M annually

Maintain Financial Flexibility• A healthy balance sheet allows us to navigate

challenging periods and pursue value creation opportunities

• Retain an investment-grade credit rating

Support a Competitive Dividend• Competitive dividend remains a priority; current yield

of ~6%

Evaluate Value Creation Opportunities• Continue to explore options that create long-term

value while ensuring the potential return justifies the associate risk

Our Focus

Slide #16

* Represents midpoint of sustaining capital expenditures range of $600-$800 million; annual dividend expenditures based on current payout level

Page 17: BAML 2016 Conference

$50-$60 Per Tonne

Estimated potash cash cost savings by 2017 compared to

2013 levels**

Steps to Enhance Position

* Excluding severance and transition charges in 2016** Cash costs refers to total cost of goods sold less depreciation and amortization; assumes Rocanville production of 5.0 million tonnes in 2017, FX rate of CDN 1.40 per 1 USD and sales volumes of 9.5mmt (for illustrative purposes only; actual 2017 sales expectations may differ).

Slide #17

Matching Supply to Demand

• Aligned operating capability to market conditions through suspension of New Brunswick potash operations (Nov 2015 and Jan 2016)

• Inventory shutdowns at SK potash operations (Dec 2015 and Mar 2016)

Asset Optimization• Shifted production from New Brunswick to Saskatchewan, reducing annual

COGS by $40-$50 million beginning in 2016*• Ramping up Rocanville later this year will further improve cost profile in

2017

Logistical Optimization

• Capacity at New Brunswick port available to Canpotex for East Coast delivery

• Completing Hammond IN distribution center (with 110,000 tonnes storage) to position potash outside busy Chicago rail corridor

Capital Profile• Rocanville marks completion of potash expansion program in late 2016• Eliminating $185 million in New Brunswick capital expenditures through

2018• Sustaining capital expenditures estimated at $600-$800 million per year

Dividend • Competitive dividend a priority; returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2015• Reduced dividend by 34 percent to balance returns and financial flexibility

1.8 Million Tonnes

Reduction in operational capability from Penobsquis

closure and Picadilly suspension

2.5 Million Tonnes

East Coast port capacity at Saint John, NB available to

Canpotex$500 MillionEstimated reduction in capital

spending by 2017 compared to 2015 levels

~6 PercentPotashCorp’s current dividend

yield

Source: PotashCorp

A Disciplined Approach, Best-in-Class Assets and Strong Balance Sheet

A Snapshot: Positioned to Succeed

Page 18: BAML 2016 Conference

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Thank you