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Second Quarter 2013 Philippe Probst, CEO Tomas Hedström, CFO Stockholm, 14 August 2013

Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

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Page 1: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Second Quarter 2013

Philippe Probst, CEO

Tomas Hedström, CFO

Stockholm, 14 August 2013

Page 2: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Today’s four topics

2

Q2

>> AN EVENTFUL QUARTER

Strategic review, farm-out processes

and operational progress

>> FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Earnings, key ratios and one-offs

>> RIGHTS ISSUE

Strengthened balance sheet and short-term financing

>> WAY FORWARD

Medium to long-term outlook

Page 3: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Operational progress

Q1

Page 4: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

4

An eventful second quarter

HIGHLIGHTS

• New Board of Directors and Management

Team

• Initiated review of strategy, assets,

organisation and financing

• Short-term funding to be secured through

rights issue and planned new bond

• Gunvor Group becoming major

shareholder with industry expertise

• Farm-out in Tunisia signed, ongoing

process in Denmark and Congo

• Oil discovery and new field on stream in

Equatorial Guinea

Page 5: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Farm-out of Tunisian offshore to EnQuest

5

• Farm-out of 70% of PA Resources working interest in the Zarat

permit and Didon concession

• Operatorship transferred to EnQuest

• Structured as two separate transactions, effective date 1 January

2013, subject to necessary approvals

• Cash consideration of USD 23 million for Didon

• Additional payment of USD 93 million for PA Resources’ share of

Zarat development cost

• Additional considerations of up to USD 133 million, contingent on

achieving certain revenue and cost targets

• EnQuest - an experienced operator with track record

• PA Resources retains significant share of upside in its remaining

30% interest

Farm-out agreement

with EnQuest

signed in late May

Consideration

Secures assets’

underlying value with

remaining upside

potential

Page 6: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

• Located in the Gulf of Gabes within access to existing

infrastructure

• Appraised discoveries with 7 wells drilled

• Zarat: largest remaining Tunisian field to be developed

• Total gross recoverable hydrocarbons of c. 123 mmboe

(c. 40% liquids)

• 2 additional undeveloped discoveries with tie-back

potential to existing/planned infrastructure

• Additional prospects and leads

Zarat and Elyssa Fields

Tunisia: Overview of farmed-out assets

Zarat Permit

• Onstream since 1998, 31 mmbbl oil produced to date

• Current gross production of some 1,400 bopd (approx.

400 bopd to PA Resources after farm-out)

• Infill production well(s) and ESPs to extend field life

• Didon FSO-vessel currently undergoing recertification

programme, field shut down until late September

BRING

MAP

6

Producing Didon Field

Page 7: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Tunisia: Significant onshore exploration acreage

Tunis

Sfax

4

3

1

2

Algeria Libya

Tunisia

1 Makthar Permit

Tunis

Sfax

4

3

1

2

Algeria Libya

Tunisia

Producing Asset

1

1 Jelma Permit

2

1 Douleb, Semmama

& Tamesmida

3

1 Jenein Centre Permit 4

Exploration Acreage

PA Resources onshore assets:

• Douleb, Semmama and Tamesmida (DST)

in production since late sixties. Current

production around 400 bopd

• Permits extended to 2035. Field reviews

initiated.

• Surrounding Makthar and Jelma permits

cover areas of 7,216 km² and 3,828 km²

• Seismic programme to mature prospects

and to identify deep potential

• Jenein Centre:

» Discovery in Accacus play

» Importance/extend to be assessed

» Additional prospectivity,

» Commitments fulfilled for current period

(to 2015)

7

Page 8: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

8

Congo – Azurite field has reached its economic limit PA Resources 35%

• Full field development reached in 2011

• Disappointing production performance due

to severe reservoir problems

• Remedial sidetrack failed in early 2013

• Total field recovery now estimated at <17 mmbbl,

compared with the initial plan of 40-98 mmbbl

• Plans for abandonment are well-advanced.

Expected to commence in H2 2013

• Final lifting in H2 2013 expected to mainly cover

PA Resources’ share of abandonment cash cost.

• Further provisions may be necessary.

Licence Group: Operator Murph Oil (50%),

PA Resources 35%, SNPC (15%)

Azurite field

Page 9: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Congo – MPS farm-out process initiated PA Resources 85%

• Following Murphy’s withdrawal, PA Resources

obtained additional 50% working interest and

operatorship

• Second exploration phase extended until

November 2013, allowing time to assess

exploration potential and offering a farm-out to

industry

• Data room closed, visited by 14 Companies.

Awaiting responses

• Decision point expected in Q3 2013 whether to

enter the third and final exploration period which

carries one firm well commitment

• A possible relinquishment would give rise to an

impairment loss of current book value of approx.

SEK 800 million

9

Licence Group: Operator PA Resources (85%), SNPC (15%)

Mer Profonde Sud – exploration licence area

Page 10: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

10

EG – Production summary Aseng Field PA Resources 5.7.%

• Total field production of 36.8 mmbo since start

in November 2011 (+2 mmbo to PA Resources)

• Initial plateau level of around 50,000 was

increased to around 60,000

• Field began coming of plateau in April 2013,

average production of 50,000 bopd in Q2 2013

(2,850 bopd net to PA Resources)

• Production reduced due to increased associated

gas production having reached facility’s capacity

• Profitable barrels and frequent liftings

• Investments recovered in 2012, current

investments recovered almost immediately

Aseng field in Bock I

Licence Group: Operator Noble Energy (38%), Atlas Petroleum

(27.55%), Glencore (23.75%), PA Resources (5.7%),

GEPetrol (5%)

Page 11: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

11

EG – Production commenced at the Alen field PA Resources 0.29%

• Production commenced in Q3 2013

• Volumes slowly ramped up optimising all

major component systems, full operations

expected later in Q3 2013

• Alen field production contribution to PA

Resources modest ( ~100 bopd at peak

condensate production level)

• Sharing of facilities and costs with Aseng field

expected to reduce Aseng operating costs in

excess of USD 3 million for PA Resources

• Alen field development project delivered

ahead of schedule and slightly below

sanctioned cost of USD 1,370 million

(PA Resources’ share approx. USD 4.1 million)

Alen Field Unitisation: Operator Noble Energy (44.65%),

GEPetrol (28.75%), Glencore (27.55%), Atlas Petroleum (1.38%),

PA Resources (0.285%),

Alen field in Bock I/Block O

Page 12: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

EG Block I – Successful drilling campaign underway PA Resources 5.7%

Progressing two exciting fields towards development

1. Carla North and South exploration/appraisal

» 2011 discovery in adjacent Block O (’Carla

North’) appraised in 2013 with additional oil

reservoir found

» Carla South exploration well in Block I and

its sidetrack encountered oil in two different

good quality sandstone reservoirs

» Implication of results being evaluated

2. Diega appraisal

» Appraisal well currently being drilled

» Plans to perform a long-term flow test

following the drilling of a horizontal reservoir

penetration

12

Licence Group: Operator Noble Energy (38%), Atlas Petroleum

(27.55%), Glencore (23.75%), PA Resources (5.7%),

GEPetrol (5%)

Block I Drilling program

Carla South

1 2

Diega

Page 13: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Denmark 12/06 – Farm-out negotiations ongoing PA Resources Operator with 64%

• High quality Middle Jurassic reservoir proved by wells

• Mid to high case assessment of c. 25-50 mmboe gross

of contingent resources including liquids

• Technical and commercial studies continuing towards a

decision in Q1 2014 on either appraisal drilling or to move

into development Front End Engineering Design (FEED)

• Ongoing discussions with owners of infrastructure within

reach for a potential tie- back

• Wells established 35 API oil in Miocene sandstone

at c. 900m – exceptionally light oil for shallow depth

• Remaining deeper potential in Chalk and Middle Jurassic

• Efforts to locate available rig for appraisal drilling continue

for a 2014 drilling campaign

• Negotiations regarding a farm-out of a 40% interest

ongoing

13

Licence Group: Operator PA Resources (64%), Nordsøfonden

(20%), Spyker Energy (8%), Danoil (8%)

B20008-73

12/06 Broder Tuck-2

Lille John-1

Broder Tuck

Lille John

12/06 farm-out

Page 14: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Financial highlights

Q1

Page 15: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

15

Production and sales in Q2

bopd Ytd

2013

Q2

2013

July

2013

West Africa 4,300 4,000 3,800

North Africa 800 800 400

Group Total 5,100 4,800 4,200

• ASENG: Oil production constrained by associated

gas production having reached facility’s capacity

• AZURITE: Declining production, field reached its

economic limit, abandonment planning underway

• PRICE: PA Resources realised price of USD 103

per barrel compared to Brent average of USD 102

• TUNISIA: Shut down of Didon on1 July due to

maintenance work programme with expected

completion in late September

Average production (bopd)

Average sales price (USD/bbl)

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013

120

109 109 106 113

103

119 108 109 110 113

102

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013

PA Resources Brent

Page 16: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Earnings and key ratios

16

Q2 2013 Q1 2013

Production (bopd)* 4,800 5,600

Oil price (USD/barrel) 103 113

Revenue (SEK million) 332 446

EBITDA (SEK million)** 140 242

Profit before tax

(SEK million)*** -2 131

Profit for the period

(SEK million) -350 34

Earnings per share (SEK)**** -12.37 1.50

* Subject to the necessary approvals, PA Resources´ working interest in the Didon field in

Tunisia has been reduced from 100% to 30% through the farm-out transaction with EnQuest.

The production numbers have been retrospectively adjusted to a 30% interest as per 1

January 2013.

** Figures for Q2 exclude non-cash, one-off costs of SEK 462 million

*** Figures for Q2 and Q1 exclude non-cash, one-off costs of SEK 647 million and SEK 21

million respectively.

**** The reverse share split in May 2013 gave rise to retrospective adjustments

KEY COMMENTS Q2 vs Q1

• Revenue negatively impacted by lower

production and lower sales price

• Capital loss from Tunisian farm-out:

before tax SEK -462 million and after

tax SEK -117 million, presented as

one-off costs

• Impairment loss of SEK 97 million due

to relinquished Greenlandic licence

2008/17 (Block 8), and of SEK 88

million due to impairment of Danish

licence 9/06, presented as one-off

costs

Page 17: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Q2 & Q1 comparison after one-offs

17

SEK million Q2 2013 Q1 2013

Profit for the period -350 34

One-off costs

Azurite 0 21

9/06 (Gita) 88 0

2008/17 (Block 8) 97 0

Tunisian farm-out 117 0

-48 55

Net exchange gains/losses 3 -45

Didon 70% net result impact 8 -5

Profit for the period

(Adjusted) -38 6

KEY COMMENTS

• Adjusted profit for Q2 and Q1 amounted

to SEK -38 million and SEK 6 million

respectively

• Difference of SEK -44 million is mainly

explained by lower adjusted revenue of

SEK 63 million

Q2 2013 Q1 2013

Production (bopd) 4,800 5,600

Oil price USD(barrel) 103 113

Currency (USDSEK) 6.50 6.43

Page 18: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Q2 adjusted P&L

18

SEK million Q2 2013 Adjustments Q2 adjusted

Revenue 332 -31 301

Capital loss -462 462 0

Cost of sales & other

expenses -192 11 -180

Depreciation & WD -246 206 -40

Operating profit -568 650 81

Total financial items -81 6 -75

Profit before income tax -648 656 6

Income tax 298 -343 -45

Profit for the period -350 313 -38

KEY COMMENTS

• Adjusted profit for the second quarter

amounted to SEK -38 million.

• Adjustment made for the following

figures:

» Tunisian farm-out:

1. Capital loss of SEK -462 million

reversed deferred tax liability of

SEK 345 million

2. Didon impact 2 months of 100%

(row by row)

» Write-downs of SEK -185 million

» FX effects of SEK -3 million

Page 19: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Cash flow

19

SEK million Q2 2013 Q1 2013 H1 2012

Cash flow from operations -27 -70 -98

Capex -38 -58 -96

New share issue 0 604 604

Loans raised 38 0 38

Amortisation of debt -121 -245 -365

Cash flow from financing -83 359 276

Net cash flow -149 231 82

KEY COMMENTS

• Q2 capex of SEK 38 million, mainly in

Alen, Aseng and 12/06

• Full year capex forecast of SEK 250-380

million, expected outcome at the lower

part of the range

• Amortisations of SEK 121 million in Q2

• Cash and cash equivalents at the end of

the period, SEK 141 million

Page 20: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Current equity and debt situation

20

KEY COMMENTS

• Equity just below SEK 2,000 million

• Granted waiver and amendment to reduce

covenant to SEK 1,000 million, conditional

upon rights issue completion in Q3

• NOK bond amortisation of SEK 101 million

in Q2

• Rights issue in Q3 of SEK 891 million

before transaction costs

• New bond loan of up to SEK 1 billion to

be issued in September

Q2 2013 Q1 2013 Q4 2012 Covenants

Book Equity (SEK

million) 1, 973 2,201 1,590 >2,000

Book Equity to

Capital Employed 46% 48% 37% >40%

Net debt (SEK million) 2,197 2,111 2,630 N/A

Covenants and Net Debt development

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

October 2013 January 2014 April 2014

Bond Loan 900m NOK

Bond Loan 850m SEK

Convertible Bond

Debt maturity (SEK million)

Page 21: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Reserves and resources after Tunisian farm-out

21

KEY COMMENTS

• 2P reserves reduced from

55.7 to 23.5 mmboe

• Contingent resources

reduced from 142 to

78 mmboe

mmboe Reserves Contingent

resources Key assets

1P 2P 2C

North Africa 11.0 16.2 27 Zarat, Elyssa, Didon

West Africa 4.9 7.3 18 Aseng, Alen, Diega,

Yolanda, Azurite

North Sea 0.0 0.0 34 Broder Tuck, Lille John

Total 15.9 23.5 78

Page 22: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Capital expenditure 2013

Actual Forecasted

Capex development and forecast (SEK million) KEY COMMENTS

• Capex in Q2 amounted to SEK 38 million

and for H1 period to SEK 96 million

• Main part of Q2 investments relates to

the Alen and Aseng fields in EG and

preparatory activities ahead of on Danish

licence 12/06

• 2013 forecast of SEK 250 – 380 million

unchanged, with outcome expected in the

lower part of the range

22

58

1,613

255 96

250-380

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2011 2012 2013

Page 23: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Rights issue

Q1

Page 24: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Minimum funding requirements of SEK 1.7 billion

24

-0.8

Estimated funding need Q3 2013 until year-end 2014 (SEK billion)

-0.8

-0.8

Assumptions for cash projection:

• Minimum funding requirements Q3

2013 – Q4 2014 are based on:

» Best estimate of production

profiles

» Oil price level of USD 100

» Current committed capex

» Does not include planned, but

not yet committed capex

Page 25: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Commited investment plan: Q3 2013-Q4 2014

25

*12/06 wells assume carry through farm-out

DRILLING PROGRAM/FIRM WELLS:

Tunisia:

Didon Didon 2014 Development/1

Tunisia:

Zarat Elyssa

2014

2015

Appraisal/1

Exploration/1

Tunisia:

Makthar

2014/

2015 Exploration/1

EG:

Block I Diega Ongoing Appraisal/1

Denmark:

12/06* Lille John 2014

Appraisal/

Exploration/1-2

Tunisia offshore: • Didon field: ESP + infill well

• Zarat permit: Elyssa appraisal well

and exploration well

Tunisia onshore

exploration: • Seismic and exploration well

EG:

• Block I development (Alen),

exploration and appraisal (Carla

South and Diega)

Congo:

• MPS licence

reprocessing/interpretation of

seismic

Denmark: • 12/06 work program ahead of

drilling

Committed capex projects – Total of USD 100 million

Page 26: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Rights issue key facts

• Shareholders with 17% holding/votes have committed to subscribe for their

pro rata share

• Remainder is underwritten by Gunvor Group, Lorito Holdings and a guarantee

consortium put together by Carnegie Investment Bank

• Each existing share will entitle to subscribe for 3 new shares at SEK 10.50

per new share

• Rights issue carried out at discount of approx. 19% to the theoretical

ex-rights price based on closing share price on 4 June 2013

• EGM on 5 July resolved on the rights issue

26

Rights issue of SEK 891 million fully underwritten

Page 27: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Debt refinancing

27

• PA Resources has secured commitments from two larger institutional

investors for undertakings in excess of SEK 500 million

• Terms for the bond undertakings similar to terms for the current SEK bond but

with a minimum equity covenant of SEK 1,000 million instead of

SEK 2,000 million

• Waivers granted for both the NOK and SEK bond and amendment of terms

and conditions

New bond issue in September/October of up to SEK 1,000 million

Page 28: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Rights issue time table

28

» 14 August The prospectus is made public

» 15 August Record date to participate

» 19 August – 2 September Subscription period

» Around 5 September Announcement of outcome

Q2 Report and prospectus

made public

14 August

Record date

15 August

Subscription period

19 August – 2 September

Outcome announced

Around 5 September

Where to find more info

• Prospectus and subscription

forms available on

www.carnegie.se or

www.paresources.se

Trading in subscription rights

19 August – 28 August

Page 29: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Outlook

Q1

Page 30: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Medium to long-term Outlook

30

FIRST SCENARIO BASED

ON ONGOING REVIEW

• A comprehensive review is currently

undertaken by the board and

management

• Such review is not completed and

therefore the outlook presented can

be subject to changes

• The objective is to present investors

a realistic scenario based on reason-

able, not too optimistic assumptions

DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO OF ASSETS

• PA Resources has a relatively large,

diversified portfolio of assets, both in

terms of geography and maturity

• The portfolio contains several assets

with a high likelihood for production

in the next few years

• A number of these assets are included

in the outlook for estimating future

capex and production levels

• However, a number of assets have not

been included, could provide additional

production in the future

Page 31: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Outlook scenario Assumptions

31

Didon

Field* Continuing production with one in-fill well and successful ESP installations

Zarat

Permit*

Development of the Zarat and Elyssa fields in 2015-2017

(Capex includes the drilling of two committed exploration wells)

No ETAP back-in has been assumed (ETAP back-in would reduce projected

development costs and production level proportionally)

Block I

Continuation of the current production from the Aseng and Alen fields

Development of one notional additional field in Block I (e.g. Diega) with total reserves

of 30 mmboe in 2015-2017 (given results of recent wells, such additional development

is considered likely)

Denmark

12/06** Development of only one of the two discoveries made, with assumed total field

reserves of 32 mmboe

Tunisia

onshore The capex profile includes USD 23 million for committed exploration expenditures

onshore Tunisia in 2014 and 2015, no success assumed

* 30% Equity after farm-out. Work programme from the new operator EnQuest not yet available, may lead to changed

** PA Resources’ working interest is assumed to be 24 per cent after farm-out (appraisal wells carried)

Page 32: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Investment outlook: Medium to long-term

32

Capital expenditure plan (MUSD) • Total capital expenditures of

approx. USD 600 million until 2017

• Majority of capital expenditures are

related to development costs

• Successful rights issue in

combination with new bond loan

expected to finance plans until year-

end 2014

• Further funding required after 2014

• Limited maintenance expenditures

in 2018 and onwards 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Projected Capex 2013 H1

Page 33: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Production projection: Medium to long-term

33

Production profile (barrels per day) • The scenario entails an average

production of approx. 15,000 – 20.000

boepd in 2018 to PA Resources

• It includes the following assets to be

developed into production (PA Resources’

share of reserves)

» Zarat field (13.7 mmboe in 2P and 6

mmboe in 2C), first oil 2017

» Elyssa field (16 mmboe in 2C),

first gas 2016

» Notional field in Block I (Diega or Carla

South), first oil 2017.

» Notional field in Danish licence 12/06

(Broder Tuck or Lille John), first gas

2018

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Fields to be developed Currently producing

Page 34: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Outlook scenario: Risks and upside

34

» Reserves in undeveloped fields may be lower than

projected

» Capex higher than projected

» One or several of the assumed new field develop-

ments (Zarat, Elyssa, Block I, 12/06) may not be

realised

» General risks in project execution (in particular in

terms of schedule)

• As in any projection, the

presented scenario is

subject to various risk

• All risks presented are

usually attached to any

E&P project and forward

projection

Main risks

Page 35: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Outlook scenario: Risks and upside

35

» EnQuest’s track record could lead to potential increase in

Didon reserves through enhanced recovery and

extended field life

» Over-performance of one or more developments, e.g.

• EnQuest development plans may be more efficient

• The notional field development in Block I may be larger than

assumed (well results point in this direction)

» Gas developments and sales in Block I

» Success in one or more ventures currently assumed

abortive, e.g.

• Only one development assumed in the North Sea, whereas

PA Resources’ portfolio has four discoveries in Denmark, UK

and Netherlands

• Successful farm-out of MPS license (not assumed)

• Successful farm-out of and/or development(s) of Tunisian

onshore assets

ADDITIONAL UPSIDE

• The presented scenario

is relatively conservative

• Tangible upside not

considered

Significant upsides not included, such as:

Page 36: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

PA Resources’ short-term focus

36

• Complete the rights issue

• Issue of new bond loan in

September/October

• Proceed ongoing 12/06 farm-out

negotiations and MPS farm-out process

• Nominate permanent CEO

• Map PA Resources’ medium-term way

forward

Page 37: Pa resources q2 2013 final_14 aug 2013

Thank you! Q1

Q3 Report on 23 October 2013