2016 Workshop in Denmark: Laudato Si!, UN SDGs and the spirit of Assisi

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<ul><li><p>The spirit of Assisi, the Un SDGsand our invitation to become inspired Instruments of Peace and all Good </p><p> 19-20th November. With Assisi Mission in Denmark </p><p>Adriaan Kamp Energy For One World</p><p>*Hello!</p></li><li><p> Contents of Session From Corporate Shell to Inspired (Servant) Leadership; UN Sustainable Development Goals and Paris Climate Change Agreement</p><p>The invitation to become an Inspired Instrument of Peace and All Good (Light &amp; Love ) </p><p> - The spirit of Assisi, UN SDGs and Laudato Si!</p><p>This first module, and simply put- consists of three parts.</p><p>1st- The setting of the scene: The global change challenge and the energy future we find ourselves today in.</p><p>2nd. I will take a moment to share some of the key milestones and highlights of the global efforts to come to a Sustainable Development Agenda post-2015, including Climate Change Safety agreements.</p><p>3rd. I will take a little time to wrap-up but also to re-iterate and share the key focus and journey in this lecture series: Our Leadership over the Energy Architectures as it develops.</p><p> *</p></li><li><p>Prof. Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute: The Age of Sustainable Development*Clickable Video Presentation</p><p>And that brings me to the extra-ordinary lecture series of Prof. Jeffrey Sachs: The Age of Sustainable Development"The Age of Sustainable Development" gives students an understanding of the key challenges and pathways to sustainable development - that is, economic development that is also socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable. </p><p>This open COURSERA course provides an introduction to the interdisciplinary field of sustainable development, drawing on the most recent developments in the social, policy, and physical sciences. Sustainable development is the most urgent challenge facing humanity. The fundamental question is how the world economy can continue to develop in a way that is socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable. The course describes the complex interactions between the world economy and the Earth's physical environment. Ecological processes and constraints (climate, disease ecology, physical resources such as soils and energy sources, topography and transport conditions) significantly shape the patterns of economic development, demography, and wealth and poverty. At the same time, human activities (farming, land use, urbanization, demographic change, and energy use) change the physical environments, increasingly in dangerous ways. The course offers a broad overview of the key challenges and potential solutions to achieve sustainable development in the 21st century. </p><p>https://www.coursera.org/course/susdev</p><p>I suggest you register and learn.*</p></li><li><p> Clickable Presentation</p><p>Now- and if we look at the latest dashboard on our socio-economic and ecological dashboard of plant earth- then the aggregate of our human development looks seriously go-ing off-chart.</p><p>The new and up-to-date Planetary dashboard, and presented at the latest World Economic Forum in Davos- shows- shows our Great Acceleration in human activity since 1950. </p><p>Human activity, predominantly the global economic system, is now the prime driver of change in the Earth System (the sum of our planet's interacting physical, chemical, biological and human processes), according to a set of 24 global indicators, or planetary dashboard, published in the journal Anthropocene Review (16 January 2015). </p><p>It is difficult to overestimate the scale and speed of change. </p><p>===</p><p>In a single lifetime humanity has become a planetary-scale geological force, says lead author Professor Will Steffen, who led the joint project between the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Stockholm Resilience Centre.</p><p>Press release |A decade on, IGBP in collaboration with the Stockholm Resilience Centre has reassessed and updated the Great Acceleration indicators, first published in the IGBP synthesis, Global Change and the Earth System in 2004. PaperThe trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 15 January 2015.Data downloadGreat Acceleration data (excel 2007, 364.7 kB)</p><p>When we first aggregated these datasets, we expected to see major changes but what surprised us was the timing. Almost all graphs show the same pattern. The most dramatic shifts have occurred since 1950. We can say that around 1950 was the start of the Great Acceleration, said Professor Steffen, a researcher at the Australian National University and the Stockholm Resilience Centre.The bulk of economic activity, and so too, for now, the lions share of consumption, remain largely within the OECD countries, which in 2010 accounted for about 74% of global GDP but only 18% of the global population. This points to the profound scale of global inequality, which distorts the distribution of the benefits of the Great Acceleration and confounds international efforts, for example climate agreements, to deal with its impacts on the Earth System. However, the paper shows that recently, global production, traditionally based within OECD countries, has shifted towards BRICS nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Moreover, the mushrooming middle classes in BRICS nations are driving greater consumption here too.About one half of the global population now lives in urban areas and about third of the global population has completed the transition from agrarian to industrial societies. This shift is evident in several indicators. Most of the post-2000 rise in fertilizer consumption, paper production and motor vehicles has occurred in the non-OECD world.This new planetary dashboard highlights how the trajectories of Earth and human development are now lightly bound. The findings will be presented at this weeks World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, 21-24 January.*</p></li><li><p>Living Planet Reports</p></li><li><p>Pope Francis and Laudato Si!</p></li><li><p>*</p></li><li><p>NASA Latest -September 2016</p></li><li><p>*</p><p> Geopolitical shifts and re-alignments</p><p>Economic and finance system change and fundamentals </p><p>A new technological era: 4th Industrial Revolution.</p><p>Global production systems &amp; the rise of new (multinational) corporations</p><p>Social Changes (network economies), and the quest for wealth justice</p><p>Planetary boundaries/ Resource Scarcities</p><p>Demographic change and migration/ Changing labour markets</p><p>Global Change </p><p>And lets look at The Global Energy Challenge- as we today know and have come to see it.</p><p>Our world is also under rapid construction and development, with new wealth and wealth distribution being created, every day, and in an unprecedented speed. Over the coming two to three decades some 3 billion people in Asia, Middle-East &amp; Africa, Latin-America are expected to join the new global middle-class and are to enjoy the same consumption patterns in their homes, in their offices and in their transportation as in the OECD and upper middle class families in the emerging and developing nations.[1] By the mid of the century, we expect we will be living with 9 billion people- sharing one planet.</p><p>As we look at the world of today- and tomorrow- we can see great political, economic, social- , technological , ecological and organizational shifts taking place in our society, in our economies and well- in the biosphere of our planet and in nature.</p><p>In simple terms.</p><p>You cannot have a thriving and vibrant economy, if you donot have a healthy and peaceful society in well-being.</p><p>And you cannot have a society at peace, well-being and wealthy- if the nature system around it cannot support it.</p><p>So in essence:</p><p>Our coming decades is by some UN experts such as jeffrey Sachs called the Age of Sustainable Development:</p><p>===</p><p>Leadership over our economies, and in our industries such as the Energy sector- more and more is in need of a new balancing act: attuning corporate strategies, business innovation and organizational forms with that of the dynamic contect change and societal needs and realities they find themselvesin.</p><p>In simple terms.</p><p>You cannot have a thriving and vibrant economy, if you donot have a healthy and peaceful society in well-being.</p><p>And you cannot have a society at peace, well-being and wealthy- if the nature system around it cannot support it.</p><p>So in essence:</p><p>Our coming decades is by some UN experts such as jeffrey Sachs called the Age of Sustainable Development:</p><p>Our key change challenge is to realize healthy and stable economies within healty, peaceful and vibrant societies- in respect of each other and in balance with nature.</p><p>Nature needs to be sustainable as a supporting frame in order to maintain the rest. </p><p>Its that easy.*</p></li><li><p> *2014 2030-2050 7 Billion People 9 Billion People 90 trillion USD economy 180-210 trillion USD 225 million oil eq/day 500- 750 million oil eq/day 400 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st century ??? ppm CO2 and Climate Change Effects </p><p> The question is: Can we energize ourselves safely and sustainably into this future world? </p><p>From a 7 billion population towards a 9 billion global communityFrom a 90 trillion USD to a 180-210 trillion USDFrom 225 boeq towards 500-750 boeeq- if nothing dramatically changes.</p><p>And as today- and that is a fact we have already polluted the earth atmosphere with over 400 ppm CO2 enough for a prognosed 2 Degrees Celsius Global warming,. And in addition we have consumed and emitted in the first 15 years already all the carbon which was considered the safe budget for this century.</p><p>Add to that the Great Acceleration and the many other planetary boundaries we are seemingly at ease are crossing</p><p>Now how do are we to do this and how are we go-ing from here?</p><p>===</p><p>Energy is vital and essential to modern day life. In fact, the wealthier you become, the more energy you are likely to use. That feels logical. [2]Today, all activities on our planet are fuelled by a daily energy supply of 225 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Roughly 80% comes from oil, natural gas and coal (fossil fuels). It is expected that in 2050 the total amount of energy that needs be produced will amount to 750 million boe per day. This figure is based on a worldwide population growth of 50% in the coming 40 years, and a higher average level of energy consumption (5 kW per capita or 120 kWh per capita per day[3]). How can we deliver this large amount of energy in a clean manner?[4] How does the transition path to 50 terawatt look like?[5]</p><p> The question is: Can we nergize ourselves safely into this world? As today- and that is a fact - we already have polluted the earth atmosphere with over 400 ppm CO2 enough for a prognosed 2 Degrees Celsius Global warming,. And in addition we have consumed and emitted in the first 15 years already all the carbon which was considered the safe budget for this century.</p><p>So- </p><p>Now, if all people on this planet by then were to consume fossil (oil, gas, coal) fuel energy in the same way as people presently do in the West and wealthy parts of the emerging nations, we will be in for trouble,as we would need Five planets (for as much as we can understand now) to find and produce these resources. And we will have surely exceeded an acceptable carbon emission levels- endangering our lives and species for decades, if not centuries to come.</p><p>The present trend is exactly that. </p><p>So, over the next decades, - in fact today and tomorrow- the energy industry will need to find answers to the challenge.</p><p>And that is You &amp; me!</p><p>The clean-tech industry- the industry of renewable energy supply, smart energy infrastructures [6] and energy saving- will have to play a significant role, perhaps much larger than presently predicted or seen. But will the speed of developments and integration of the clean-tech industry and its innovations be in time for the market? </p><p>How about the time needed in order to grow these solutions to scale, and to develop the capabilities into a reliable new energy infrastructure?</p><p>How about the present strength and distribution of the existing resource base in the conventional coal, oil and gas resource system? Will the new frontier reserves such as shale oil and gas be sufficiently strong in order to balance the expected (rapid and steep) decline in the existing and large producing fields? Can (all of) these new frontier production reserves be actually produced- from an economic, ecological and societal point of view?</p><p>So with this rise in complexity and uncertainties both on the demand side as well on the supply side of the world energy system, and in a socio-technical context, we may expect the world energy system perhaps to run against triple-A limits (affordability, availability, acceptability) or may become unstable (price volatilities, market swings, security or unrest, etc.).</p><p>[1] UN report, McKinsey report: The next 3 billion [2] See graph UNDP [3] 1boe = 1564 kilowatt-hours (kWh). Note that todays energy consumption per capita is 2.3 kW or 55 kWh per day. There are big differences around the world (China: less than 2 kW; US: more than 11 kW).[4] BP 2030 Energy Future Report ( central source report for our study!)[5] Energy Future Project- Berkhout, de Ridder &amp; Kamp [6] E.g. micro-grids, smart and supergrids [7] In this respect: oil and/or gas reserves*</p></li><li><p> 2/1/2012Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved</p><p>So- and in a nutshell- we are not sure about our near-to-mid term future. </p><p>On Energy that is.</p><p>And how it will serve our Economies and Societies and in relation to Nature.</p><p>No one can. No one can be sure.</p><p>No matter who you are in our Energy Sector, or what Professional expertise you carry- be it the CEO of one of the largest Oil &amp; Gas Companies, the State Minister or Leader of a country, An economist in an Energy institute, watchdog or block- our future is uncertain.</p><p>There are some serious black swans, red post signals and signs and un-clarities (in relation, in demand needs and supply reserves, in capacity and cost development, on sustainability, etc. etc.) which causes us to frown our eyebrows.</p><p>And there are also some very bright and light examples name it- white swans- which make me (or us) smile.</p><p>Add them all together- and the simple truth is : we dont know how it all adds-up.</p><p>And that is already a good thing to know: </p><p>To acknowledge that we donot know how our energy markets, and our world energy system- will behave over the next one to two decades. </p><p>I can say this with some clear certainty- as I have had the pleasure and insight of the Best of the West and the Most of the East is willing and able to offer or share.</p><p>So our individual and collective approach to our Global Change Challenge- and Energy &amp; Sustainabilty Challenge- does matter. </p><p>Its crucial.</p><p>Therefore I am so excited about this special lecture series. </p><p>To my mind: </p><p>This gap in knowledge and this sure-certainty in some of the behaviours of the players in our world energy system- and thus the performance of our energy architectures on location is a problem or change challenge which can ideally be solved best within the Brotherhood of Energy Professionals.</p><p>We have two options:</p><p>Either we continue to compete across the silos , the energy value chain- betwe...</p></li></ul>


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