Tom Hooper CEO, Canterbury Development Corporation - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014 Canterbury' Post-Quake Economy - Rockstar or Rockfall?
- 1. The Christchurch & Canterbury Economy Tom Hooper, CEO, Canterbury Development Corporation Friday 28 March 2014
2. 4 The Good GDP Growth: Unemployment, Migration Universities, Hospitals, Schools 3. 5 Gross Domestic Product -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% Jun07 Dec07 Jun08 Dec08 Jun09 Dec09 Jun10 Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 (Annual Average Percent Change) Source: Statistics New Zealand, Infometrics, CDC Christchurch Canterbury New Zealand 4. 6 Unemployment Rate 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Mar00 Sep00 Mar01 Sep01 Mar02 Sep02 Mar03 Sep03 Mar04 Sep04 Mar05 Sep05 Mar06 Sep06 Mar07 Sep07 Mar08 Sep08 Mar09 Sep09 Mar10 Sep10 Mar11 Sep11 Mar12 Sep12 Mar13 Sep13 (percent of labour force unemployed) Source: Statistics NZ Household Labour Force Survey Christchurch Canterbury New Zealand Unemployment in Christchurch and Canterbury both low Fall in December driven by rise in employment Participation in labour force also high 5. 7 Migration -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Jan08 May08 Sep08 Jan09 May09 Sep09 Jan10 May10 Sep10 Jan11 May11 Sep11 Jan12 May12 Sep12 Jan13 May13 Sep13 Jan14 NumberofPeople (Permanent and Long Term Migration, Arrivals and Departures) Source: Statistics New Zealand, CDC Net- Christchurch Arrivals- Christchurch Departures- Christchurch Migration performing strongly Will be key to meeting labour requirements 6. 8 The Bad Housing: The rental squeeze and the challenge it presents Ongoing issues with insurance and peoples homes 7. 9 Average Weekly Rent 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 500.0 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Private Sector Landlords, mean rent $ Source: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment Christchurch New Zealand Christchurch rent above national average and growing 8. 10 Rental Rates 8,000 homes to be rebuilt 24,000 homes with over $100,000 of damage We risk overbuilding our housing stock in the short term 9. 11 The Challenge How to ensure that our long term economy stays buoyant? 10. 12 The Challenge Migration, skills development The importance of the CBD rebuild to business and people attraction 11. 13 GDP 12. Released 18 February 2014 2013 Census QuickStats about greater Christchurch 13. 17 Census usually resident population count now 436,056 14. Cultural diversity 1 in 5 people in greater Christchurch area is born overseas compared to 1 in 4 nationally Of those overseas-born residents that moved to New Zealand in the past 2 years, the six most common countries of birth are: 18 15. More young males 19 52.3% (46,242) of people aged 15 to 29 are male Almost 3,000 males in this age group arrived from overseas in the last 2 years Of these, 2,000 are employed Of those males who have arrived from overseas and are employed: 25% are working in construction: the majority coming from Ireland and England 16. but less young females 47.7% (42,111) of people aged 15 to 29 are female The top three industries for this group are: retail trade, accommodation, and health care and social assistance 30% of those working in health care and social assistance are born overseas 20 17. Fewer school aged children 4% decrease in school aged children 29.3% increase in Selwyn district 6.6% increase in Waimakariri district 9.7% decrease in Christchurch city The area units with the largest decreases were: Bexley, Aranui and Dallington The area units with the largest increase were: Rolleston, Lehmans (Rangiora) and Pegasus 21 18. Population movement Since 2008, 81,000 people arrived 27,726 from overseas 5,454 from Auckland 2,256 from Dunedin 1,752 from Wellington Since 2008, 38,000 people left and moved to: North Island (19,437), other parts of Canterbury (5,802), elsewhere in South Island (12,591) 22 19. Most people remained in the area Greater Christchurch population was 436,000 Of the people living in greater Christchurch in 2008: 89.2% still living in greater Christchurch in 2013 48.6% of people lived at same address Change within greater Christchurch Christchurch city decreased 2% (6,987) to 341,469 Selwyn increased by 33% (10,953) to 44,595 Waimakariri increased by 17% (7,155) to 49,989 23 20. Dwellings 24 81% increase in unoccupied private dwellings National increase was 16% Christchurch city most change is seen in the eastern suburbs 21. 25 22. 26 23. Labour market, industry and retail trade statistics 24. Employment strong in greater Chch Labour market and industry statistics 28 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 D 03 D 04 D 05 D 06 D 07 D 08 D 09 D 10 D 11 D 12 D 13 Percent Employment rate Greater Christchurch Quarterly Source: Statistics New Zealand 0 September 2010 earthquake February 2011 earthquake 25. Youth NEET rate continues to fall Youth (1524) in employment 45,300 In study 37,400 Unemployed 2,900 NEET 5,100 Youth NEET rate 7.5 percent Labour market and industry statistics 29 0 5 10 15 20 D 09 M 10 J S D M 11 J S D M 12 J S D M 13 J S D Percent Actual Annual average Source: Statistics New Zealand Youth NEET rate Greater Christchurch Quarterly 26. Digging behind the industry changes Growth in construction jobs had come from: Just over 2,200 people moving into Canterbury to a construction firm Nearly 2,600 people already in Canterbury joining a Construction firm! From within Canterbury, people in retail, accommodation, and admin/support companies have joined construction firms. Labour market and industry statistics 30 27. Value of Building Work 31 28. Christchurch Retail Trade Indicator 32 29. More information releases QuickStats about Housing 2013 Census meshblock dataset tables Business demography data Construction information (including earthquake related consents and value of building releases) 33 30. Evidence and the roadmap to recovery: How can we help you? Seismic & the City 2014 Dr Vivienne Ivory Opus Research 31. Where? Who? When? Familiar questions 32. Where? Who? When? Research questions How is the city changing in response to quakes? What effect will ongoing changes have on Christchurchs future recovery? Questions I am often asked 33. Quick Alternative Helpful Creating agile evidence for the recovery phase 34. Quick Alternative Helpful Creating agile evidence for the recovery phase Mail redirections NZ Post Electronic payment transactions Paymark Business demographics Statistics NZ 35. Agile evidence to understand patterns of change Mail redirections: Visualising patterns of relocation 36. Agile evidence to understand patterns of change Volume of electronic fast-food transactions (June 2010 May 2012) 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 Numberoftransactions Hornby North Russley Riccarton Cathedral Square Northcote Papanui Linwood Sydenham Electronic payment transactions: Flows in economic activity between business locations 37. Agile evidence to understand patterns of change Business demographics: Observing the changing nature of business locations 38. Can we try a different (better, more vibrant) central city? Current evidence Quality of neighbourhood life Healthy lifestyle is easy Non-suburban lifestyle Will it still work over the prolonged rebuild phase? Agile evidence to test future recovery routes 39. What matters most to residents? Balance house & local features Being able to walk safely Local everyday services Public places to socialise & be active Engage in an urban lifestyle Advantage to pioneers A liveable central city? Potential resident priorities 40. Would they still be willing? Need bigger house & parking Hard to walk Go to wider city for everyday needs Need more private space Stay with suburban lifestyle Everyone else waits Or? 41. Moving towards the future Diverse housing & neighbourhood options Meeting normal needs Positive reasons to moving in early Integrating resident and business sector