The Christchurch & Canterbury Economy

Tom Hooper, CEO, Canterbury Development CorporationFriday 28 March 2014

4

The Good

GDP Growth: Unemployment, Migration Universities, Hospitals, Schools

5

Gross Domestic Product

Jun

07

Dec

07

Jun

08

Dec

08

Jun

09

Dec

09

Jun

10

Dec

10

Jun

11

Dec

11

Jun

12

Dec

12

Jun

13

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

(Annual Average Percent Change)Source: Statistics New Zealand, Infometrics, CDC

Christchurch Canterbury New Zealand

6

Unemployment Rate

Mar

00

Sep

00

Mar

01

Sep

01

Mar

02

Sep

02

Mar

03

Sep

03

Mar

04

Sep

04

Mar

05

Sep

05

Mar

06

Sep

06

Mar

07

Sep

07

Mar

08

Sep

08

Mar

09

Sep

09

Mar

10

Sep

10

Mar

11

Sep

11

Mar

12

Sep

12

Mar

13

Sep

13

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

(percent of labour force unemployed)Source: Statistics NZ Household Labour Force Survey

Christchurch Canterbury New Zealand

Unemployment in Christchurch and Canterbury both low

Fall in December driven by rise in employment

Participation in labour force also high

7

Migration

Jan

08

May

08

Sep

08

Jan

09

May

09

Sep

09

Jan

10

May

10

Sep

10

Jan

11

May

11

Sep

11

Jan

12

May

12

Sep

12

Jan

13

May

13

Sep

13

Jan

14

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

(Permanent and Long Term Migration, Arrivals and Departures)Source: Statistics New Zealand, CDC

Net- Christchurch Arrivals- Christchurch Departures- Christchurch

Num

ber

of P

eopl

e

Migration performing strongly Will be key to meeting labour requirements

8

The Bad

Housing: The rental squeeze and the challenge it presents Ongoing issues with insurance and people’s homes

9

Average Weekly Rent

Jan

05A

pr 0

5Ju

l 05

Oct

05

Jan

06A

pr 0

6Ju

l 06

Oct

06

Jan

07A

pr 0

7Ju

l 07

Oct

07

Jan

08A

pr 0

8Ju

l 08

Oct

08

Jan

09A

pr 0

9Ju

l 09

Oct

09

Jan

10A

pr 1

0Ju

l 10

Oct

10

Jan

11A

pr 1

1Ju

l 11

Oct

11

Jan

12A

pr 1

2Ju

l 12

Oct

12

Jan

13A

pr 1

3Ju

l 13

Oct

13

Jan

14

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

Private Sector Landlords, mean rent $Source: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment

Christchurch New Zealand

Christchurch rent above national average and growing

10

Rental Rates

8,000 homes to be rebuilt 24,000 homes with over $100,000 of damage We risk overbuilding our housing stock in the short term

11

The Challenge

How to ensure that our long term economy stays buoyant?

12

The Challenge

Migration, skills development The importance of the CBD rebuild to business and people attraction

13

GDP

Released 18 February 2014

2013 Census

QuickStats about greater Christchurch

17

Census usually resident population count now 436,056

Cultural diversity1 in 5 people in greater Christchurch area is born overseas compared to 1 in 4 nationally

Of those overseas-born residents that moved to New Zealand in the past 2 years, the six most common countries of birth are:

18

More young males…

19

52.3% (46,242) of people aged 15 to 29 are male

• Almost 3,000 males in this age group arrived from overseas in the last 2 years

• Of these, 2,000 are employed

Of those males who have arrived from overseas and are employed:

• 25% are working in construction: the majority coming from Ireland and England

…but less young females

47.7% (42,111) of people aged 15 to 29 are female

The top three industries for this group are:

• retail trade, accommodation, and health care and social assistance

30% of those working in health care and social assistance are born overseas

20

Fewer school aged children

4% decrease in school aged children• 29.3% increase in Selwyn district• 6.6% increase in Waimakariri district• 9.7% decrease in Christchurch city

The area units with the largest decreases were:• Bexley, Aranui and Dallington

The area units with the largest increase were:• Rolleston, Lehmans (Rangiora) and Pegasus

21

Population movement

Since 2008, 81,000 people arrived• 27,726 from overseas• 5,454 from Auckland• 2,256 from Dunedin• 1,752 from Wellington

Since 2008, 38,000 people left and moved to:• North Island (19,437), • other parts of Canterbury (5,802), • elsewhere in South Island (12,591)

22

Most people remained in the area

Greater Christchurch population was 436,000

Of the people living in greater Christchurch in 2008:• 89.2% still living in greater Christchurch in 2013• 48.6% of people lived at same address

Change within greater Christchurch• Christchurch city decreased 2% (6,987) to 341,469• Selwyn increased by 33% (10,953) to 44,595• Waimakariri increased by 17% (7,155) to 49,989

23

Dwellings

24

81% increase in unoccupied private dwellings• National

increase was 16%

Christchurch city most change is seen in the eastern suburbs

25

26

Labour market, industry and retail trade statistics

Employment strong in greater Chch

Labour market and industry statistics 28

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

D03

D04

D05

D06

D07

D08

D09

D10

D11

D12

D13

Percent

Employment rateGreater Christchurch

Quarterly

Source: Statistics New Zealand

0

September 2010 earthquake

February 2011 earthquake

Youth NEET rate continues to fall

Youth (15–24) in employment 45,300

In study 37,400

Unemployed 2,900

NEET 5,100

Youth NEET rate 7.5 percent

Labour market and industry statistics 29

0

5

10

15

20

D09

M10

J S D M11

J S D M12

J S D M13

J S D

Percent

Actual

Annual average

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Youth NEET rateGreater Christchurch

Quarterly

Digging behind the industry changes

Growth in construction jobs had come from:• Just over 2,200 people moving into Canterbury to a

construction firm• Nearly 2,600 people already in Canterbury joining a

Construction firm!

From within Canterbury, people in retail, accommodation, and admin/support companies have joined construction firms.

Labour market and industry statistics 30

Value of Building Work

31

Christchurch Retail Trade Indicator

32

More information releases

QuickStats about Housing

2013 Census meshblock dataset – tables

Business demography data

Construction information (including earthquake related consents and value of building releases)

33

Evidence and the roadmap to recovery:

How can we help you?

Seismic & the City 2014

Dr Vivienne IvoryOpus Research

• Where?

• Who?

• When?

Familiar questions…

• Where?

• Who?

• When?

Research questions

• How is the city changing in response to quakes?

• What effect will ongoing changes have on Christchurch’s future recovery?

Questions I am often asked…

• Quick

• Alternative

• Helpful

Creating agile evidence for the recovery phase

• Quick

• Alternative

• Helpful

Creating agile evidence for the recovery phase

Mail redirections

NZ Post

Electronic payment

transactionsPaymark

Business demographic

sStatistics NZ

Agile evidence to understand patterns of change

Mail redirections: Visualising patterns of relocation

Agile evidence to understand patterns of change

Volume of electronic fast-food transactions (June 2010– May 2012)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

Num

ber

of tr

ansa

ction

s

HornbyNorthRussley

Riccarton

CathedralSquareNorthcote

Papanui

Linwood

Sydenham

Electronic payment transactions: Flows in economic activity between business locations

Agile evidence to understand patterns of change

Business demographics: Observing the changing nature of business locations

• Can we try a different (better, more vibrant) central city?

Current evidence

– Quality of neighbourhood life

– Healthy ‘lifestyle’ is easy

– Non-suburban lifestyle

Will it still work over the prolonged rebuild phase?

Agile evidence to test future recovery ‘routes’

What matters most to

residents?

Balance house &

local features

Being able to walk safely

Local everyday services

Public places to

socialise & be active

Engage in an urban lifestyle

Advantage to pioneers

A liveable central city? Potential resident priorities

Would they still

be willing?

Need bigger

house & parking

Hard to walk

Go to wider

city for everyday

needsNeed more

private space

Stay with suburban lifestyle

Everyone else

waits

Or…?

Moving towards the future

Diverse housing & neighbourhood

options

Meeting ‘normal’ needs

Positive reasons to

moving in early

Integrating resident and

business sector