2015 holiday season marketing information

2015 Holiday

Sales Season

1

For advertising information, please contact:

Republic Media Advertising

Email: [email protected]

Phone: 602.444.4920

mailto:[email protected]

Agenda

2014 Holiday Season Sales Recap

Predictions for 2015 Holiday Season

Predictions for 2015 Holiday Season in Phoenix

(Information coming soon!)

2

‘Tis the season...to shop

The holidays may still be a few months away, but

consumers are already gearing up for the year’s biggest

shopping season.

They’re searching for deals and checking them twice

across a variety of screens (mobile, increasingly).

Given that the holiday shopping season kicks off earlier

every year, here are some seasonal highlights from last

year.

3

SALES RECAP

Holiday Season 2014

4

2014 total U.S. holiday sales rose 3.6% to $838.9 billion

from 2013. U.S. online holiday sales rose 14.4% to $69.7

billion in 2014 from 2013.

3.6%

14.4%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

2014

YOY Percentage Increase in Holiday Sales

U.S. Total Retail Sales U.S. Total Online Sales

Source: eMarketer August 20155

The 2014 holiday shopping season key

dates had strong performance.

Source: Forrester/Bizrate Insights Holiday Flash Study 20146

14.3% increase in online

retail sales YOY

Mobile % of

Sales Was Up 32%


retail sales YOY

Mobile % of

Sales Was Up 28%


retail sales YOY

Mobile % of

Sales Was Up 22%

So long Black Friday, hello Gray Friday

Source: First Data SpendTrend 11/1/14-1/4/15 card-based transactions at 400,000+ U.S. retail merchants 7

Last holiday season, shoppers

seemed hungrier for a deal than

they were for turkey.

Black Friday transformed into Gray

Friday; the big shopping day’s sales

were diluted a bit as retailers began

their promotions and deals early.

Retailers stretched Black Friday deals

and promotions across the whole

month of November removing the

focus from one big day of shopping.

Source: Google Holiday survey

Recap…biggest days for shopping

8


SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT

Thanksgiving

More than

50%

started

shopping

Biggest days for in-store shopping

Biggest days for onlineshopping

Days spike in shopping-related to

searches on mobile

Black

Friday

Cyber

Monday

Green

Monday

Gifts for

Dad peak

ChristmasGifts for

Mom peak

Queries peaked earlier

9

Week of

Thanksgiving

& Black Friday

9 WEEK

PRIOR

8 WEEK

PRIOR

7 WEEK

PRIOR

6 WEEK

PRIOR

5 WEEK

PRIOR

4 WEEK

PRIOR

3 WEEK

PRIOR

2 WEEK

PRIOR

1 WEEK

PRIOR

2012 2013 2014

‘Black Friday’ query demand

Consumers are

researching Black

Friday earlier each year

Source: Google Trends/US

How shoppers shopped during 2014

holiday season

Source: First Data SpendTrend 11/1/14-1/4/15 card-based transactions at 400,000+ U.S. retail merchants

10

Last-minute shoppers

9 out of 10 top spending days occurred in December

Measuring dollars alone, Christmas Eve was the biggest spending

day, with December 23 coming in at a close second

Retail foot traffic was strongest on December 21 – the Sunday

before Christmas

58% of these last-minute shoppers used mobile technology to check

prices, deals and availability before making the trip to a retail store

Average retail ticket from November 1, 2014 through

January 4, 2015 was $72.55

How shoppers shopped during 2014

holiday season

Source: Alliance Data 2014

11

Bargain hunters

The number of shoppers who saved on holiday purchases with the

help of rewards benefits, discount offers and coupons increased

12% YOY

58% saved with email discount offers

54% saved with direct mail discount offers

26% used mobile coupons to save – up 5% YOY

Despite the discounts, nearly 1/3 of consumers spent more in

2014 than they did in 2013

Brand loyalties were up for grabs

12


Over ½of respondents were open to buying

from a new retailer

41%Actually purchased from

a new retailer, up

significantly from 2013

All of Q4 impacts holiday sales

13

In 2013, October thru December delivered similar levels of sales.

In 2014, November was a strong driver for sales activity.

Predicting the best sales month may be difficult for 2015, so a continual

advertising presence starting in October would be the optimal course of action.

Source: NRF

Holiday ad spending trends

Source: Kantar Media 2012-2014

14

32.6%

34.4%

34.1%

14.7%

17.0%

22.0%

23.3%

21.2%

17.3%

12.4%

11.8%

11.7%

7.1%

7.0%

6.2%

7.5%

6.4%

6.1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2012

2013

2014

% Share of Total Holiday SpendingNovember-December

National TV Digital Newspaper Spot TV Radio Magazine Outdoor

39.3%

38.2%

38.0%

Combined newspaper and digital spending has steadily increased since 2012

– with digital becoming an increasingly larger part of the mix.

Luxury retailers invested in digital and print

in 2014

Source: Kantar Media 2012-2014

15

46%

22%

17%

6%

9%

5%

34%

23%

31%

7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

TV Digital Newspaper Magazine Other

% Share of Total Holiday SpendingNovember-December 2014

All Retail Luxury

Online holiday shopping

16

5 hours 46 minutesTime spent on digital

Increased by more than 2 hours

in the past three years


4 of 5 holiday shoppers

consider the internet the

most “useful” resource

Happy (mobile) Holidays in 2014 – 52% of online

traffic in 2014 came from mobile devicesRetailers sent 34% more push notifications in 2014 compared to 2013

Consumers’ engagement rate with push notifications doubled YOY

More than 1/3 of all retail app opens were the result of push notifications

Shoppers were most receptive to retailers’ notifications on the Saturday before

Thanksgiving with a 19% average engagement rate – making mobile’s role in pre-

shopping activities abundantly clear

Weekends, when shoppers have more leisure time, consistently show greater

spikes in engagement – a huge missed opportunity for retailers as send volumes

usually dip outside the workweek

On Thanksgiving, notifications drove 42% of all app opens

On Black Friday, notification engagement rates jumped 30% compared to

Thanksgiving and remained steady at 14-15% through the weekend

On Cyber Monday, notification send volume increased 50% from the day

prior, but engagement rates dropped 12%

17

Source: Urban Airship 2015 – analyzed data from same 150 retail apps through Cyber Week for 2013 and 2014

Most connected holiday shopping season --

ever

18

78%

Used the Internet for holiday

research last year


Shoppers reported spending more time researching and

purchasing online than they did in years past.

40%

Of holiday shopping occurred

online

Newspaper was a top resource too!

19

Top sources for holiday shopping

decisions (among newspaper readers)

61% Coupons

61% Newspaper Ads

56% Online Retail

56% Newspaper Inserts

53% Catalogs

40% Online Reviews

18% TV/Radio Ads

Source: RAM

89%Look in the newspaper for THANKSGIVINGspecials

Ways readers used newspaper ads

20

Source: RAM

71% browse ads for gift ideas

58% use ads to compare prices

PROJECTIONS

Holiday Season 2015

21

2015 holiday shoppers will…

22

Start early

Use mobile more

frequently to help

them shop online

Half of shoppers will research purchases

before Thanksgiving weekend

52% of online smartphone shoppers

used their phones throughout the

shopping process


Consult more

sources before

making decision

12 sources consulted... nearly tripled

from 2010

Shoppers start early

23


15%

5%9%

19%

48%

I've already started before Labor Day Before Halloween Black Friday/Cyber

Monday

early December

29%of shoppers will research

before Halloween

Halfwill research before

Thanksgiving

Why consumers start shopping early

24

Source: NRF

Marketers have massive opportunity to

influence early in the season

25


57%of holiday shoppers don’t have specific

products or brands in mind when they

begin their holiday shopping

78%of consumers are not loyal

to a particular brand

Window of influence extends through

the holiday

26

Source: NRF

41%

of shoppers will not complete holiday

shopping until mid-December

24%


shopping until the “last minute”

8%


shopping until after Christmas day

Retailers expect a successful holiday

season in 2015eMarketer forecasts U.S. retail sales in the months of November and

December 2015 will increase 5.7% YOY, reaching $885.7 billion.

27


17.2%

19.4%

17.5%

13.3%12.1%

14.4% 13.9%

3.2%

7.3%6.3%

3.4% 2.9%3.6%

5.7%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

U.S. Retail and Retail Ecommerce Holiday Season Sales Growth 2009-2015

Retail ecommerce holiday season sales Retail holiday season sales

Despite the slight dip in

retail ecommerce sales

growth, eMarketer

estimates it will make up

9% of total retail sales this

season – up from 8.3%

share in 2014.

2015 will be first real test of a new wave of

social ecommerce

Over the past year, Facebook, Pinterest, Instagram, Twitter and YouTube all

introduced “buy” or “shop now” buttons that significantly ease the process of

purchasing from these sites – especially on mobile devices.

Facebook and Pinterest are the social networks responsible for most referrals

to retailer websites, making retailers most interested in their buy button

offerings.

Both store credit card information, allowing people to purchase using

just a few clicks within the platform.

Neither platform takes a cut from the purchase.

They added these buy buttons to make on-site conversions easier

and more trackable, which will make their advertising more

valuable to retailers.

28


Mobile research, purchase intent will continue to rise in

2015More than 2/3 of U.S. adults planned to research purchases more frequently via

mobile devices this holiday season than they did last year.

While mobile remains an upper-funnel shopping activity, an impressive 60% of

respondents intended to increase mobile holiday buying activity.

29

Source: Signal July 2015

60%

67%

56% 58% 60% 62% 64% 66% 68%

Purchase more frequently

Research more frequently

U.S. Adults Who Plan to Research vs. Purchase More Frequently via Mobile During Holiday Season 2015

Smartphone – The Ultimate Shopping

Assistant

30

75%

of smartphone

shoppers plan to use

the phone in-store this

holiday season


PHOENIX MARKET

Holiday Season 2015

31

More than 6 in 10 shoppers are planning to spend

the same amount or more in 2015 as they did in 2014

32

Source: Republic Media Reader Panel (Sept 2015)

9%

61%

21%

4%

5%

More than last year

Same as last year

Less than last year

Do not exchange gifts at theholidays

Undecided or Not sure

Total Shoppers (N=1,550)

Do you expect to spend more, the same or less on your holiday shopping

compared to last year?

Readers are most likely to shop in person at discount retailers,

department stores and warehouse clubs during the holiday season.

67% will shop at online-only retailers.

33


63%

63%

66%

40%

32%

22%

9%

13%

7%

3%

9%

12%

3%

3%

26%

16%

11%

25%

24%

6%

6%

67%

Discount Retailers

Department Stores

Warehouse Clubs

Specialty Retailers

Electronic Retailers

High-end Department Stores

Luxury Retailers

Online Only Retailers

At the Store Order Online - Pickup @ Store Order Online - Have Shipped

In what type of stores will you be doing your holiday shopping?

Women are more likely to look for discounts,

coupons and sales when holiday shopping

34


2% 2%2%

4% 5% 3%

22% 24%20%

28% 28%28%

44% 41% 47%

Total Men Women

Extremely Important

Very Important

Somewhat Important

Not Very Important

Not at All Important

How important are discounts, coupons and sales for items you are likely to purchase

this holiday season?

Many will purchase gift cards but overall readers

are more likely to shop in-store/online for gifts

35


1%

35%

13%

7%

28%

16%

All

About a quarter

About a half

About three quarters

Not sure/Undecided

None

Total Shoppers (N=1,487)

What proportion of your holiday expenditures will be used to purchase gift cards?

The preferred gift card is for a specific store

36


69%

21%

15%

8%

13%

Store brand

Mastercard/Visa

Online (e-mail gift card)

Amex

Other

Total who plan to purchasegift cards (N=1,072)

What “type” of gift card are you most likely to purchase?

Other mentions included

Restaurants (27) and Amazon.com (9)

63% of shoppers 18-49 are “likely”

to shop on Black Friday

37


41%

21%

44%

56%

22%

16%

22%

26%

17%

27%

15%

10%

9%

17%

9%

4%

11%

19%

10%

4%

Total

18-49

50-64

65+

Not at All Likely Not Very Likely Somewhat Likely Very Likely Extremely Likely

How likely are you to shop on “Black Friday” after Thanksgiving

(either Thursday evening or Friday) this year?

37%

63

%

34%

18%

38


19%

11%

19%

24%

16%

9%

18%

21%

35%

40%

32%

36%

16%

19%

17%

12%

14%

21%

14%

7%

Total

18-49

50-64

65+

Not at All Likely Not Very Likely Somewhat Likely Very Likely Extremely Likely

How likely are you to shop online on the Monday after Thanksgiving or “Cyber Monday” this year?

65%

80%

63%

55%

65% of all shoppers are “likely”

to shop on Cyber Monday

39


34%

31%

37%

Total Men Women

Do you have a set budget for your holiday shopping?

% Saying “Yes”

While women are more likely to have a budget

concerning holiday shopping, the majority of shoppers

have no budget

40


5%

16%

31%33%

15%

$100 or less $101 to $250 $251 to $500 $500 to $1,000 More than$1,000

Do you have a set budget for your holiday shopping?

% Saying “Yes”

48% will spend more than $500

this holiday season

41


Yes, 66%No, 9%

Unsure, 16%

Do you intend to purchase holiday

gifts over the Internet?

66% plan to do a portion of their holiday shopping online so

it remains important to have a strong online presence.

Approximately, what percent of your total holiday gift

purchases will you spend with online purchases this

year?

1%

14%

34%

36%

13%

2%

Less than 10%

10% to 24%

25% to 49%

50% to 74%

75% to 99%

100%

The top incentives for online shopping are free shipping

and discounts. The appeal of avoiding crowds and lines is

seen as an added benefit to shoppers.

42


92%

76%

70%

64%

63%

51%

50%

40%

2%

2%

Free shipping

Discounted compared to in-store

Avoiding crowds/long checkout lines

Easy to use website

Free returns

No sales tax collected (where applicable)

Can return items to store

Clear shipping date

Nothing would entice me to buy online

Other

Which of the following would make you more likely to buy holiday gifts online?

Gift cards are a staple when holiday shopping. In addition

clothing and toys are high priority items.

43


70%

57%

45%

18%

18%

18%

17%

15%

15%

14%

14%

11%

11%

11%

10%

10%

8%

6%

3%

Gift cards (Store, Music, Restaurants, etc.)

Apparel

Toys

Home electronics

Cosmetics/Skin care/Fragrances

Watches/Jewelry

Homemade items

Grocery (Baked, Food items, etc.)

Wine/Beer

Homemade baked goods

Liquor

Home furnishings

Video gaming systems

Travel

Other

Laptop or personal computers

Tablets

Mobile phone(s) - Smartphones, Cell phones,…

Electronic readers

What types of holiday gifts will be on your shopping lists this year?

Holiday shopping starts early and

continues throughout December.

44


24%

24%

8%

36%

5%

3%

19%

22%

9%

39%

7%

4%

28%

25%

7%

34%

3%

3%

I have already started

Before Thanksgiving, but I have notstarted yet

Black Friday

First two weeks in December

The 10 days before Christmas

Other (gift cards, money, etc)

Total

Men

Women

When do you expect to do the bulk of your holiday shopping this year?

Nearly 2/3 of shoppers use credit cards

when holiday shopping.

45


Do you mostly use cash or credit

while holiday shopping?

Cash/Debit cards, 35%

Credit cards, 63%

Other, 2%

46


Which of the following do you use

to make shopping decisions?

Shoppers make purchasing decisions based on newspaper

ads/inserts and coupons. Newspaper ads/inserts and

online retail are the main sources for shoppers.

Which is your main source

(#1 choice) for holiday specials?

28%

24%

19%

9%

8%

5%

5%

2%

Inserts in the newspaper

Online retail

Ads in the newspaper

None of these

Coupons

Catalogs

Online review websites

TV/Radio advertising

56%

54%

53%

52%

36%

29%

14%

9%

Ads in the newspaper

Inserts in the newspaper

Online retail

Coupons

Catalogs

Online review websites


Other

Other = mostly wish

lists from family/friends

47


In which, if any, of the following ways do

you use newspapers for holiday

shopping?

Nearly 7 in 10 shoppers plan to use advertisements for gift ideas

and to compare prices. Nearly 1/3 said that Thanksgiving

specials WILL have an impact on purchasing decisions.

Will the Thanksgiving specials have an

impact on your purchase decisions?

69%

65%

28%

12%

10%

Browse advertisements forgifts ideas

Use ads to compare prices

Read articles related toconsumer warnings

Read articles related totrends in fashion

Don't use newspapers forholiday shopping

Yes, 31%

No, 22%

Maybe, 47%

89% of shoppers will look for Thanksgiving

specials in the newspaper

48


89%

64%

39%

32%

27%

20%

7%

1%

Newspaper

Internet/Online

E-mail

Weekly papers or shoppers

Direct Mail/Coupons mailed to home


Text/Mobile messages

Other

Where will you look for the Thanksgiving specials?

Marketing

2015 holiday season marketing information