Dangerous Minds. Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group

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<ol><li> 1. The third eye. (or what happens when n=millions)How digital media and behavioural data might finally provide us with a robust way of understanding human behaviour.@rorysutherland </li><li> 2. All models are wrong, but some of them are useful. </li><li> 3. All models are wrong, but some of them are dangerous. </li><li> 4. The sweet spotTechnologyPsychologyEconomics </li><li> 5. How it should work. </li><li> 6. How economists* pretend it works* Business executives and civil servants are more guilty than economists in this respect </li><li> 7. Thus, the conventional view that natural selection favors nervous systems which produce ever more accurate images of the world must be a very naive view of mental evolution (Trivers 1976/2006) </li><li> 8. Heuristics"Isnt more information always better? In economics, Nobel prizes are regularly awarded for work that assumes that people make decisions as if they had perfect information and could compute the optimal solution for the problem at hand. But how do real people make good decisions under the usual conditions of little time and scarce information? Consider how players catch a ballin baseball, cricket, or soccer. It may seem that they would have to solve complex differential equations in their heads to predict the trajectory of the ball. In fact, players use a simple heuristic. When a ball comes in high, the player fixates the ball and starts running. The heuristic is to adjust the running speed so that the angle of gaze remains constant that is, the angle between the eye and the ball. The player can ignore all the information necessary to compute the trajectory, such as the balls initial velocity, distance, and angle, and just focus on one piece of nformation, the angle of gaze."Gerd Gigerenzer </li><li> 9. David Rock's SCARF model Status Certainty Autonomy Relatedness Fairness </li><li> 10. Reading List Kahneman - Thinking Fast &amp; Slow Kurzban - Why Everyone (Else) is a Hypocrite Seabright - The Company of Strangers Haidt - The Righteous Mind Sutherland (Stuart) - Irrationality Frank - The Darwin Economy Dan Ariely - Predictably Irrational Thaler &amp; Sunstein - Nudge Kenrick &amp; Griskevicius - The Rational Animal @rorysutherland / @ogilvychange</li></ol>