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The Science of Audience and Attribution Modeling
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Matt FisherSr. Program ManagerDemand MonetizationBing Ads, Microsoft@StuckInTheNet
Kevin KleinInsights ManagerBing Ads, Microsoft@kkwrites
Today’s Speakers
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6m 6m 6m
MAFISHER08
Matt FisherSr. Program Manager, Data Science / Ad SolutionsBing Ads, Microsoft@StuckInTheNet
C9H13NO3
Kevin KleinInsights Management, Bing Ads
B.A. in Jazz Guitar Performance
Willfully signs up for perennial heartbreak at the handsof the Washington Capitals
Avid reader of fantasy and science fiction
Blues guitar performer
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• Attribution • What is it…..
• Bing UET • How can it help…..
• Remarketing• Tying it all together
Agenda
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“In digitial marketing, Attribution is defined as the process of identifying a set of user actions (“events” or "touchpoints") that contribute in some manner to a desired outcome, and then assigning a value to each of these events.”*
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Attribution
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Defining Attribution
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Understanding attribution through the lens of….Basketball
Does this represent value? Or does this?
Karl Malone, AKA ‘The Mailman’
All time Utah Jazz points leader
Avg. 25 PPG (points per game)
Avg. 3.6 assist per game
John Stockton, AKA ‘Pasty Gangsta’
All time Utah Jazz assist leader
Avg. 10.5 assist per game
Avg. 13.1 PPG (points per game)
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Understanding attribution through the lens of….Hockey
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Does this represent value? Or does this?
Joe Thorton, AKA ‘Jumbo Joe’
All time San Jose Sharks assist leader
Total Assist w/ Sharks: 718
Avg. Assist per Game: 0.79
Games Played: 903
Patrick Marleau
All time San Jose Sharks points leader
Career Points w/ Sharks: 1,075
Avg. Points per Game: 0.72
Games Played: 1,479
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Understanding attribution through the lens of….Soccer
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Understanding attribution through the lens of… fantasy stories.
Does this represent the resistance to Voldemort? Or does this?
Descriptortext here
Understanding attribution through the lens of… fantasy stories.
Does this show the cumulative rebel power that destroyed two of the galaxy’s most sinister spacestations?
Or does this?Descriptortext here
Understanding attribution through the lens of… fantasy stories.
Does this show the fellowship responsible for delivering Middle-Earth from the brink of an Age under the influence of malevolent shadow?
Or does this?Descriptortext here
Understanding attribution through the lens of…fantasy stories.
When you don’t think about attribution in your search funnel, you’re failing to acknowledge your:• Hermione Grangers• Ron Weasleys• Han Solos• Princess Leias• Gandalfs• Samwise Gamgees
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Choose an attribution model based on your overall marketing objectives
Growth
Efficiency
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First Click Last Click Last Non-Direct Click Pole-Based
Attribution Models – The Most Common Attribution Models
Position Based Attribution Models
• Splits value to first & last clicks
• Not good for long purchase cycles
• Top of the Funnel (TOFU)• Favors: Awareness &
Acquisition• Most likely inefficient (low
ROI)
• Bottom of the Funnel (BOFU)
• Favors: Brand & Remarketing
• Highly efficiency (high ROI)
• Similar to Last Click• Removes last non-
paid channel
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Attribution Models
Time Decay Reversed Time Decay LinearRegression Models All Touches are Equal
• Distributes across touch points• Uneven distribution for either Bottom of the Funnel or Top of the
Funnel
• Every touch point is created equal
Attribution Models
Data Driven
Adwords OnlyDigital “Fingerprint”
Data Driven Custom Model
• Unique to each company• A lot of effort/time investment • Based on YOUR internal performance data & models
• Single channel view only • Only based off of Adwords
Data
Which is the Perfect Attribution Model
First / Last ClickThe last of the first channel
clicked is awarded 100% for the conversion
Data-DrivenIncludes same level of
scoring – allocates value across assists to
the final conversions
Bing UET for Attribution & Remarketing
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Bing Universal Event Tracking (UET) – One Code to Rule Them All
Who is using UET?
Remarketing?
The combination?
UET Tags enable important features across the search experience
Targeting criteria
Advertiser bid
Search query
Click to website
Conversion on
website
Remarketing – Create audience profiles based on past visitors
Auto-bidding – Modify bids to achieve conversion and CPA goals
Conversion tracking – Provides conversion attribution back to ad spend
Website
Set Up Goals to Deliver More Insights – Think Multiple Processes & Funnels
Goal
Goal
Goal Transaction
Actions
Engaged w/Content
Goals Completion
Visits & Visitors
Shipping Details
Add to Cart
Cart Visitors
Billing Details
Completion
Define Multi-Step Processes
Visits Longer than X time Visits More then X pageviews
Visit Duration
Account LoginsVideo ViewsViewed Specific Content/PagesLive Chat / Help
Request More Information / Contact UsDownload MaterialsForm CompletionsCreate an AccountItems Saved to Wishlist
Measuring & Distributing Influence Across Touch Points (Single Channel)
Car Seats
Top Safety Rated Infant Car Seats
Britax B-Safe 35
Britax vs Mesa Car Seats
Infant Car Seats
Query Path
0
0
100
0
0
5
15
50
25
10
50
15
5
10
25Education / Research
Comparison
Transaction
5
8
25
20
17
Use Goals to Create a More Inclusive View of Top to Bottom Performance
Assist shows the number of times each keyword contributed to a conversion that is associated with a different keyword
Download and analyze!
Key Learning:
Keyword example 10 has only produced 2 conversions during this time period, but it has assisted 28 other conversions!
Your To-Do List
Add UET Code to Website
Set-up & Define Goals
Use Assists or Goals to see full value across the funnel
Conversions Micro-ConversionsMulti-step Funnels
Pull keyword performance reports and include assists + goals to customized attribution model
To get a cross-channel view of performance, set-up the same goals from UET in your analytics platform.
Then you can pull the goals data by channel and campaign to understand
interactions.
Sample size : 1,000 users (US)Time : 2016/03/01 ~ 2016/05/31 Filters• Travel relevant domains : orbitz.com,
Tripadvisor.com, Expedia.com, Priceline.com, etc.
• Keywords : hotel, flight, resort, car rental, etc.
• User action : Hotel review, flight search, package search, etc.
Data Profile
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1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 880
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Weighted Average:37 days
Hotel CDJ Length by User Distribution
Number of Users
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Search tripadvisor booking expedia hotels priceline hilton trivago kayak marriott orbitz travelocity ihg bookingbuddy0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
764
672
501 476422
303 287 278 263 257218 204 187
154
Avg_PV Avg_Time (min.) Users
Top Hotel CDJ Domains
32
Key Takeaways:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
# of domain visits per user
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Remarketing & Audiences
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With Bid & Target adjustments, All Campaigns could be remarketing
campaigns…….
Include+% BidExclude-% Bid
Layering Audience Lists
Exclude
-% BidInclud
e+% Bid
SEARCH
DISPLAY EMAILS
SEARCH
DISPLAY EMAILS
Think Holistically about Audiences LINKEDINHow can you remarket to audiences other channels have engaged with?
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Creating Cross-Channel Audiences:
Simple:Include targeting for other marketing channel:
• Affiliates• Social• Email• Display
Advanced:Onsite actions/behaviors and include specific audiences and demographics targeting by channel:
Social by Demographic Data:Facebook & LinkedIn• Age Range• Job Title• Employer• Interests
Basic:PPC only.Targeting onsite actions and behaviors.
Onsite Behaviors & Actions
Set Up Audience Lists to Tailor Content, Messaging & Optimization
Transaction
Actions
Content Engagement
Completion
Visit Duration
Shipping Details
Add to Cart
Cart Visitors
Billing Details
Completion
Define Multi-Step Processes
Cross Channel VisitorsDuration on Site (Bounces)
Visits, Visitors, Visit Duration
Logged In UserVideo ViewsViewed Specific Content/PagesLive Chat / Help Request More Information / Contact Us
Download MaterialsForm CompletionsCreate an AccountItems Saved to Wishlist
Customized & Target Content to the Audience Behind Your Clicks:
Everything tracked with Goals +
Cross-Channel TrafficCombination of pages visitedPages not visited Abandoned shopping cartsReferral URLDuration of time since last
visitLoyal Consumers
KeywordsAd CopyLanding Pages
Actions & Behaviors:Traditional PPC Targeting
Targeting outside of the Audience Lists
Messaging
Landing Pages
KeywordsTop of the Funnel
Refining the Funnel &
Congruent Customer Journeys
Optimization
Bid Strategy
Your Remarketing To-Do List
Define Target Audiences
Customize Content &PPC Campaigns
Customize Ad Copy, Keywords, Landing PagesTake Customers Through the Purchase Journey
Cross-Channel VisitorsMulti-Step Processes & FunnelsOnsite Behavior & Actions
Bid Optimization Strategy
Non-linearMulti-channel
PersonalizedLong term
Holistic
MessagingAttribution & Value
Digital strategy Purchase path
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Q A
© 2016 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.
The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation.
Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted as a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the dateof this presentation.
Microsoft MAKES NO WARRANTIES–EXPRESS, IMPLIED, OR STATUTORY–REGARDING THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.
