Democracy International - Afghanistan Public Opinion Poll December 2013

PUBLIC OPINION POLL #1

METHODOLOGY AND KEY FINDINGS

www.democracyinternational.com 1

OBJECTIVE

2

To inform voters and candidates in a timely manner about key election issues, voter participation trends and level of public support for individual candidates.

METHODOLOGY

3

Study design• Quantitative Survey

Questionnaire • Desk Review of Existing Literature• Qualitative Interviews & Focus Group Discussions

National and International Experts Leaders/Members of Civil Society Organizations

Pilot test• 3 settlements (Urban & Rural) - Random Selection

To Ensure the Clarity of Individual Questions To Fine-tune Each Question Based on the Pretest Results

4

Sample Size and Stratification• 2500 Face-to-Face Interviews in 500 PSUs

METHODOLOGY

5

Sample Size and Stratification• 115 Districts and 34 Provinces

METHODOLOGY

METHODOLOGY

6

Stratification (Distribution of Sampling Points):

• (PPS) Sampling Plan, Multi-stage Random Sampling :

Provincial level: Proportional to Population Size of Each Province

(CSO 2013 Population Data)

Urban/Rural: Proportional to Urban/Rural Population

District selection: Random Selection of Districts

PSU (Primary Sampling Unit): Random Selection of Settlements in

Each Selected District

SSU (Households): Households Selected Using Systematic

Random Sampling

Selection of Respondent: Respondents Selected Using the Kish

Grid

7

Data Collection & Quality Control

• SPS: 100 Interviewers (Male & Female), 35 Provincial

Supervisors

• Back check by DI Quality Control Officers 8%

• Observation by DI Quality Control Officers 8%

Inaccessibility and Replacements:

• (4.5%) sampling points replaced (Security)

METHODOLOGY

8

Margins of Error - Overview• The Margin of Error (MoE) for the entire population is estimated to be

(±1.96%). • With each subsequent decrease in the sub-sample of the population the MoE

increases.MARGINS OF ERROR

Total Sample_x000d_(n

= 2500)

Females_x000d_(n = 1254)

Hazara_x000d_(n = 291)

University_x000d_(n = 148)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Agree

EXAMPLE: Do you agree or disagree that…?

METHODOLOGY

9

Population SampleMARGIN OF ERROR (at 95% confidence)

Total Sample 2500 ± 1.96%

GenderMale 1246 ± 1.97%

Female 1254 ± 1.95%

Ethnic

Pashtun 977 ± 2.45%

Tajik 886 ± 2.65%

Hazara 291 ± 5.40%

EducationSecondary 213 ± 6.42%

University or above 148 ± 7.82%

Margins of Error – Gender, Ethnic Group & Education Level

METHODOLOGY

GENERAL ISSUES

10

11

Security issues/ Ter-rorism48%

Poor economy/Poverty19%

Unemployment17%

Government/Weak au-thority4.1%

Lack of Education/ Low Literacy

4%

Corruption committed by authorities

3.6%

Lack of electricity1.3%

Unpaved Roads0.9%

Lack of health care1%

Crime0.8%

Lack of potable drinking water0.3%

Lack of national unity0.1%

Foreign occupation0.1%

THE SECOND BIGGEST PROBLEM

Unemployment26%


Corruption committed by authorities

12%

Government/Weak authority

9%

Lack of Education/Schools/ Low Literacy

9%

Security issues/Violence/Terrorism

7%

Lack of electricity6%

Crime4%

Unpaved Roads4%

Lack of health care centers/Poor quality of health care services

3%

Lack of potable drinking water

2%

BIGGEST PROBLEM AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL

12


Unemployment26%

Unpaved Roads4.9%

Lack of potable drinking water3%

Lack of Governance/Weak authority2.9% Corruption committed by authorities

2.1%

Lack of health care centers/ Health care services2%

Crime0.6%

THE SECOND BIGGEST PROBLEMUnemployment 20%Lack of electricity 14%Unpaved Roads 12%Poor economy/Poverty 12%Lack of Education/Schools/ Low Literacy 9%Corruption committed by authorities 7%

Lack of health care centers/Poor quality of health care services 6%

Lack of governance/Weak authority 6%Lack of potable drinking water 6%Security issues/Violence/Terrorism 4%Crime 2%

BIGGEST PROBLEM AT THE COMMUNITY LEVEL

13

Wrong Direction 21%

Some in right, some in wrong 34%

Right Direction 33%

Don’t Know 12%

Freedom of movement

Peace/End of war

Good government

Legitimate Constitution

Better economic conditions

Democracy/Elections

International assistance

Good security

Schools for girls have opened

Good reconstruction

1%

2%

4%

4%

5%

10%

11%

14%

17%

32%

Deficiencies in the education system

Lack of international development assistance

Neighboring countries causing problems

Presence of the Taliban

No reconstruction has occurred

Poor economy

Innocent people being killed

Administrative corruption

Poor governance

Insecurity

1%

2%

4%

7%

8%

8%

9%

14%

21%

23%REASONS FOR GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION REASONS FOR GOING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION

COUNTRY’S DIRECTION

14

Very bad Fairly bad Fairly good Very good

22%19%

41%

14%

Very bad Fairly bad Fairly good Very good

13%

19%

49%

17%

COUNTRY’S PRESENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

RESPONDENTS’ PRESENT LIVING CONDITIONS

PRESENT LIVING AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

15

No26%

Yes72%

Refused2%

No14%

Yes81%

Refused5%

5 YEARS AGO 15 YEARS AGO(DURING THE TALIBAN

GOVERNANCE)

FEELING MORE ECONOMICALLY SECURE COMPARED TO:

16

A lot w

orse

The sa

me

Little

bet

ter

Muc

h be

tter

14%

32% 31%

21%

A lot w

orse

The sa

me

Little

bet

ter

Muc

h be

tter

20%

30%

34%

12%

COUNTRY LOCAL AREA

SECURITY SITUATION TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST 12 MONTHS

17

A lot w

orse

The sa

me

Little

bet

ter

Muc

h be

tter

Don’t K

now

13% 14%17%

10%

46%

A lot w

orse

The sa

me

Little

bet

ter

Muc

h be

tter

Don’t K

now

10% 10%15%

11%

52%ELECTIONS TIME SUBSEQUENT 12 MONTHS

HOW WILL THE SECURITY SITUATION DEVELOP DURING:

DEMOCRACY AND INSTITUTIONS

18

19The Taliban

Political Parties

Local Commanders (Warloards) in your area

The Judiciary

Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC)

The Provincial Council

The Independent Election Commission (IEC)

The Wolesi Jirga

Your District Governor

Provincial Governor

The Media

Village leader (Malik/Arbab/Khan/Qaryadar)

Police

The President

Afghan National Army

Your neighbors

7%

24%

24%

35%

40%

45%

50%

44%

51%

46%

39%

35%

43%

43%

34%

22%

2%

7%

9%

11%

12%

16%

15%

21%

24%

29%

37%

44%

38%

43%

58%

71%

Some confidence A lot of confidence

CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS AND GOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY

20

No Democracy in Afghanistan

Dissatisfied Satisfied

4%

28%

60%

Dissatisfied Satisfied

19%

74%

THE WAY DEMOCRACY WORKS IN AFGHANISTAN

THE WAY ELECTIONS WORK IN AFGHANISTAN

SATISFACTION WITH:

IMPORTANCE OF AND PARTICIPATION IN ELECTIONS

21

22

To promote stronger democratic practices

To secure the delivery of better governmental services

To eliminate corruption

To promote national reconciliation

To ensure economic prosperity for all Afghan citizens

To secure a safe future for all Afghan citizens

33%

28%

22%

25%

26%

26%

48%

59%

65%

64%

67%

68%

Important Very important

94%

93%

89%

87%

87%

81%

IMPORTANCE OF HOLDING GENERAL ELECTIONS

23

2%11%

34%

52% 59%

96%

77%63%

44%34%

Disagree Agree

PARTICIPATING IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS

24

6%6%

92 % 92%

Disagree Agree

FACTORS PREVENTING WOMEN FROM PARTICIPATING IN ELECTIONS

Participation is not socially appropriate

Lack of accessibility of polling stations

Family members prevent them from participating

Lack of Awareness

Insecurity

13%

28%

35%

51%

70%

WOMEN AND ELECTIONS

25

No Yes

16%

83%

31%

68%

Male Female

24%

76%

No Not decided yet Yes

11%

29%

59%

31%

37%

31%

Male Female

41%24%

34%

WILL THEY REGISTER?

VOTER REGISTRATION BY GENDER

26

No 34%

Yes 65%

North West Central South East

24%27%

38%40%

44%

76%

70%

61% 60%

54%

No Yes

VOTED IN THE 2009 PRESIDENTIAL AND PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS

27

Disaree Agree Don’t Know

25%

55%

19%

North Central West East South

15%

31%

24%22%

38%

64%

59%

51% 50%

41%

19%

9%

25%27%

21%

Disagree Agree Don't Know

LEGITIMACY OF 2009 PRESIDENTIAL AND PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS BY REGION

28

North West Central East South

2% 4%

15%10%

14%

92%87%

81% 80% 79%

6% 9%3%

9% 7%

No Yes Don't Know

8%

Yes 85%

7%

INTENTION TO VOTE IN 2014 PRESIDENTIAL AND PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS BY REGION

Most peo-ple will not

vote

Most people

will vote

Don't Know

16%

66%

18%

Central North West East South

14%

5%

18% 16%

37%

77% 77%

59% 58%

43%

8%

18%

23% 25%

19%

Most people will not vote Most people will vote Don't Know

PERCEPTION OF NEIGHBORS’ VOTING BEHAVIOR IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS BY REGION

29

30

Family members

Media Friends Village elders/Tribal

leaders

GIRoA officials Religious leaders

Political party leaders

Taliban

9%4%

6% 8%4%

11%8%

75%

85% 83% 83%

73%71%

59%

49%

3%

Discouraging Encouraging

ENTITIES THAT ENCOURAGE/DISCOURAGE PARTICIPATION IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS

31Not

impo

rtant

at a

ll

Not ve

ry im

porta

nt

Impo

rtant

Very i

mpo

rtant

1% 3%

25%

67%

Central North East West South

1% 1% 1% 1%4%2% 2% 4% 3%

6%

18%

27%

19%25%

38%

78%

67% 67% 66%

51%

Not important at all Not very important Important Very important

IMPORTANCE OF VOTING IN INFLUENCING THE OUTCOME OF THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS BY REGION

32

Central North South East West

1.4% 0.3% 2.3% 1.0% 1.3%1% 2% 3% 3% 8%

15%

23% 21% 20%

28%

80%

72% 71% 70%

58%

Not important at all Not very important ImportantVery important

Not im

porta

nt a

t all

Not ve

ry im

porta

nt

Impo

rtant

Very i

mpo

rtant

1% 3%

21%

71%

IMPORTANCE OF THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FOR THE FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN BY REGION

33

Not in

clusiv

e

Somew

hat in

clusiv

e

Very i

nclu

sive

Don't K

now

7%

45%

28%

20%

Central South East West North

7%

15%

5%9%

2%

57%

51%

41% 40%38%

27%

17%

25% 24%

37%

9%

18%

28%26%

22%

Not inclusive Somewhat inclusive

Very inclusive Don't Know

INCLUSIVITY OF THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL AND PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS BY REGION

34

No Yes Don't Know

54%

15%

30%

Kuchis

Kyrkyz

Tajik

Turkmen

Uzbek

Hazara

Baloch

Nuristani

Pashtun

.9%

1%

2%

2%

2%

5%

6%

7%

63%

Fear of fraud in election

Not receiving information about election

Problem of roads

Male family members preventing women to vote

Lack of polling station in their area

Lack of awareness

Threat of Taliban

Insecurity

1%

3%

4%

6%

9%

9%

21%

26%

EXCLUDED ETHNIC GROUPS REASONS FOR BEING EXCLUDED

PERCENTAGE OF ETHNIC GROUPS BEING DISPROPORTIONATELY EXCLUDED FROM PARTICIPATING IN THE ELECTIONS

35

9%

48%

14%

28%

Central South West North East

12%16% 13%

4% 5%

60%53%

44% 44%40%

15%8%

12% 15%19%

14%

23%

30%36% 34%

Not transparent at all Fairly transparentVery transparent Don't Know

TRANSPARENCY OF THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL AND PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS BY REGION

36

Not fair at all Fairly fair Very fair Don't Know

10%

48%

14%

27%

Central South West North East

12%17%

14%

4% 6%

60%

51%47%

43% 43%

16%8%

11%16% 16%

13%

24%27%

36%35%

Not fair at all Fairly fair Very fair Don't Know

FAIRNESS OF THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL AND PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS BY REGION

INFORMATION ABOUT THE UPCOMING ELECTION

37

38

No in

form

atio

n

Some

info

rmat

ion,

but

not

suffic

ient

Suffic

ient

info

rmat

ion

23%

40%

30%

West

South

Central

East

North

30%

29%

28%

17%

17%

36%

45%

30%

52%

41%

21%

23%

41%

22%

34%

No information Some information, but not sufficient

Sufficient information

21%

41%34%

26%40%

26%

Male Female

RECEIVED INFORMATION ABOUT VOTER REGISTRATION BY GENDER

39

The internet

Newspapers

Mosque

Mullahs

Independent Election Commission

Friends or neighbors

Family members

Elders

Radio

Television

8%

15%

18%

23%

33%

44%

46%

47%

57%

59%

Information about political parties

Information about the incumbents, their policies, successes and failures

Information about how to file an electoral complaint

Information about electoral law and human rights

Information about security arrangements to protect voters

Information about the location of polling stations

Information about Islam and elections

Information about how to vote/choose candidates on a ballot

Information about voter registration

Information about candidates

17%

19%

20%

28%

31%

43%

50%

52%

61%

76%

SOURCE OF INFORMATION

TYPES OF INFORMATION

SOURCES AND TYPES OF INFORMATION

40

Did n

ot re

ceive

any

info

rmat

ion

Not h

elpf

ul a

t all

Fairly

hel

pful

Very h

elpf

ul

11% 9%

53%

25%

18%

11%

50%

17%

Male Female

Did n

ot re

ceive

any

info

rmat

ion

Not h

elpf

ul a

t all

Fairly

hel

pful

Very h

elpf

ul

14%10%

52%

21%

HELPFULNESS OF THE INFORMATION RECEIVED BY GENDER

CANDIDATES

41

42

Hedayat Amin Arsala

Engineer Qotbuddin Helal

Mohammad Nadir Naiem

Mohammad Dawood Soltanzoi

Zalmai Rasoul

Abdul Rahim Wardak

Mohammad Shafiq Gul Agha Sherzai

Professor Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf

Abdul Qayum Karzai

Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah

35%

35%

36%

39%

53%

62%

65%

78%

81%

86%

92%

HEARD ABOUT THE CANDIDATE

FAMILIARITY WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

43

Dr. Abdul-lah Abdul-

lah

Ashraf Ghani

Ahmadzai

Abdul Qayum Karzai

Prof. Abdul Rab Rasul

Sayyaf

Gul Agha Sherzai

Abdul Rahim Wardak

Zalmai Rasoul

Mohammad Dawood

Soltanzoi

Engineer Qotbuddin

Helal


Hedayat Amin Arsala

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%94.9%

89.1%

82.8%86.4%

71.0%

76.2%

63.5%

52.7%

45.5% 46.6%50.9%


FAMILIARITY WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES BY REGION

44Hedayat Amin Arsala




Abdul Rahim Wardak

Zalmai Rasoul



Abdul Qayum Karzai



59%

59%

58%

56%

56%

53%

53%

54%

41%

39%

39%

11%

15%

15%

16%

17%

25%

25%

27%

40%

48%

52%

Least likely Most likely

LIKELY TO SUPPORT THE CANDIDATE

SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

45

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%69.0%

31.9

%

47

.5%

19.9%

26

.8%

23

.3%

16.9% 17.8%

25.7%

39.3

%

24.4%

56

.5%

15

.8%

43

.7%

7.5

%

25

.0%

9.0

%

3.9

%

3.1

% 7.7

%

29

.2%

8.8

%

23

.7%

23.9

%61.6%

17

.5%

14

.0% 2

0.7

%

6.8

%

23

.8%

7.0

%

38

.9%

4.1

%

51

.2%

52.2%

31

.9%

10

.2% 15

.6%

16

.6%

6.8%

7.7% 8.9

%

37

.5%

10

.3%

49

.1%

13.2%

54.8%

17

.9%

39.3%

50.6%

16

.6%

12.5%

30.1%

58.0%

23.9%


SUPPORT FOR CANDIDATES BY REGION

46

Dr. Abd

ulla

h Abd

ulla

h

Moh

amm

ad A

shra

f Gha

ni A

hmad

zai

Abdul

Qay

um K

arza

i

Profe

ssor

Abd

ul R

ab R

asul

Say

yaf

Zalm

ai R

asou

l

Moh

amm

ad S

hafiq

Gul

Agh

a She

rzai

Abdul

Rah

im W

arda

k

Moh

amm

ad N

adir

Naiem

Engin

eer Q

otbu

ddin

Hel

al

Moh

amm

ad D

awoo

d Sol

tanz

oi

Heday

at A

min

Ars

ala

31.5%

25.5%

13.2%

10.2%

5.4% 5.3%

1.4% 1.2% 1.2% .8% .4%

IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY, WHOM WOULD YOU CAST YOUR VOTE FOR?

47



Abdul Qayum Karzai



0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%

1.6%

8.9%

6.5%

20.3%

45.4%

1.2%

5.2%

10.2%

30.6%

38.2%

4.6%

6.3%

19.4%

43.5%

10.9%

1.3%

35.1%

14.4%

10.9%

33.7%

22.9%

1.9%

20.9%

18.0%

18.8%

South West East North Central

Hedayat Amin Arsala




Abdul Rahim Wardak

Zalmai Rasoul

.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

.2%

.6%

.9%

1.1%

3.1%

3.7%

0.3%

1.1%

0.9%

0.1%

0.8%

8.7%

0.0%

0.0%

2.9%

5.2%

0.2%

2.5%

.8%

.5%

.7%

.0%

.5%

1.8%

0.8%

1.5%

0.8%

0.0%

2.3%

8.0%

CANDIDATE PREFERENCE BY REGION

48

Enayatullah Enayat (Engineer Qotbuddin Helal)

General Khodaidad (Hedayat Amin Arsala)

Mohammad Khan (Dr. Abdullah Abdullah)

Taj Mohammad Akbar (Mohammad Nadir Naiem)

Shah Abdul Ahad Afzali (Abdul Rahim Wardak)

Sayed Hussain Alemi Balkhi (Gul Agha Sherzai)

Ahmad Saeedi (Moh. Dawood Soltanzoi)

Wahidullah Sharani (Abdul Qayum Karzai)

Ahmad Zia Masood (Zalmai Rasoul)

Abdul Rashid Dustom (Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai)

Mohammad Ismail Khan (Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf)

65%

62%

52%

52%

51%

49%

43%

40%

35%

33%

25%

28%

38%

30%

21%

28%

31%

26%

28%

31%

25%

26%

7%

12%

24%

9%

17%

15%

20%

20%

38%

45%

Not at all To some level Very much

HOW MUCH DOES THE INCLUSION OF FIRST VP ON THE TICKET INFLUENCE YOUR DECISION

49

General Khodaidad (Hedayat Amin Arsala)

Ahmad Zia Masood (Zalmai Rasoul)

Ahmad Saeedi (Moh. Dawood Soltanzoi)

Mohammad Khan (Dr. Abdullah Abdullah)

Shah Abdul Ahad Afzali (Abdul Rahim Wardak)

Enayatullah Enayat (Engineer Qotbuddin Helal)

Wahidullah Sharani (Abdul Qayum Karzai)

Taj Mohammad Akbar (Mohammad Nadir Naiem)

Abdul Rashid Dustom (Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai)

Sayed Hussain Alemi Balkhi (Gul Agha Sherzai)

Mohammad Ismail Khan (Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf)

100%

82%

74%

88%

86%

86%

75%

86%

68%

66%

58%

3%

5%

8%

9%

11%

12%

14%

28%

29%

36%

No Yes

IF THE FIRST VP LEAVES THE TICKET WOULD YOU STILL VOTE FOR THE CANDIDATE?

50

Mohammad Ali Nabizadah (Engineer Qotbuddin Helal)

Mohammad Hashem Zareh (Gul Agha Sherzai)

Safiya Seddiqi (Hedayat Amin Arsala)

Azizullah Puya (Mohammad Nadir Naiem)

Sayed Hussain Anwari (Abdul Rahim Wardak)

Mohammad Mohaqiq (Dr. Abdullah Abdullah)

Mohammad Noor Akbari (Abdul Qayum Karzai)

Mohammad Sarwar Danish (Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai)

Abdul Wahab Erfan (Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf)

Habiba Sarabi (Zalmai Rasoul)

Kazima Mohaqiq (Mohammad Dawood Soltanzoi)

61%

51%

50%

49%

45%

41%

40%

34%

31%

29%

27%

28%

32%

38%

20%

26%

29%

28%

46%

50%

25%

37%

11%

14%

12%

23%

15%

25%

20%

16%

12%

39%

15%

Not at all To some level Very much

HOW MUCH DOES THE INCLUSION OF THE SECOND VP INFLUENCE YOUR PREFERENCE FOR THIS TICKET

51

Safiya Seddiqi (Hedayat Amin Arsala)

Abdul Wahab Erfan (Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf)

Mohammad Ali Nabizadah (Engineer Qotbuddin Helal)

Sayed Hussain Anwari (Abdul Rahim Wardak)

Kazima Mohaqiq (Mohammad Dawood Soltanzoi)

Mohammad Noor Akbari (Abdul Qayum Karzai)

Mohammad Mohaqiq (Dr. Abdullah Abdullah)

Mohammad Sarwar Danish (Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai)

Azizullah Puya (Mohammad Nadir Naiem)

Habiba Sarabi (Zalmai Rasoul)

Mohammad Hashem Zareh (Gul Agha Sherzai)

78%

90%

89%

83%

74%

77%

82%

80%

80%

66%

69%

4%

7%

8%

10%

11%

15%

15%

17%

25%

26%

No Yes

IF THE SECOND VP LEAVES THE TICKET WOULD YOU STILL VOTE FOR THE CANDIDATE?

52

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%33.4%

25.2%

20.3%

10.2%

2.5% 3.9% 2.9%0.9%

30.0%

23.2%18.8%

6.8% 6.4% 6.5%4.4%

2.9%

28.4% 24.7%29.1%

5.0%1.7% 1.4%

2.8% 3.2%

20.0%

33.4%

13.5%

3.6%

9.4%6.1%

3.4%

8.0%

29.6%24.3%

23.9%

6.7%5.5% 5.1%

3.5%1.3%


29%26%

21%

7% 5% 5% 4% 3%

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE THE ELECTED PRESIDENT SHOULD FOCUS ON BY REGION

53

No19%

Yes53%

Don't Know28%

No Yes Don't Know

WILL ANY ONE CANDIDATE GET ENOUGH VOTES IN THE FIRST ROUND TO AVOID A RUN-OFF ELECTION?

54

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah - Professor Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf

Abdul Qayum Karzai - Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah - Abdul Qayum Karzai

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah - Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai

8.4%

9.3%

11%

27.4%

LIKELY CONTENDERS IN THE RUN-OFF

55

No8%

Yes78%

Don't Know14%

No Yes Don't Know

AFGHAN DIASPORA AND VOTING IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS

56

Hedayat Amin Arsala




Abdul Rahim Wardak


Zalmai Rasoul


Abdul Qayum Karzai



.3%

.6%

.7%

1.1%

1.6%

5.1%

5.9%

11.0%

16.7%

27.4%

29.5%

WHO WILL BE PRESIDENT ONE YEAR FROM TODAY?

57Hedayat Amin Arsala




Abdul Rahim Wardak

Zalmai Rasoul



Abdul Qayum Karzai



.4%

.7%

.8%

1.0%

1.3%

5.4%

5.7%

10.3%

13.2%

28.2%

32.9%

WHICH CANDIDATE BEST REPRESENTS YOUR ECONOMIC INTERESTS?

DEMOGRAPHICS

58

59

18 - 25

35%

26 - 3524%

36 - 45

17%

46 - 5513%

55+10%

18 - 25 26 - 35 36 - 45 46 - 55 55+

Male51%

Fe-male49%

Male Female

GENDER AND AGE

60

40%

10% 9% 7% 9%18%

6%

3,000 AFG or less

3,001 - 5,000 AFG

5,001 - 10,000 AFG

10,001 - 15,000 AFG

More than 15,000 AFG

14%

22%

30%

20%

14%

HOUSEHOLD MONTHLY INCOME AND EDUCATION LEVEL

News & Politics

Democracy International - Afghanistan Public Opinion Poll December 2013