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DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA INSTITUTE FOR LABOUR AND SOCIAL INSURANCE Prof. Dr. Alexander Razumov [email protected] Ministry for Labour and Social Protection of the Russian Federation (BRICS COOPERATION ON POPULATION ISSUES: INAUGURAL SEMINAR, 28 FEBRUARY 04 MARCH 2014, MBOMBELA, SOUTH AFRICA)

DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

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Apresentação utilizada pelo professor russo Dr. Alexander Razumov durante a reunião plenária da Comissão Nacional sobre População e Desenvolvimento (CNPD), realizada no dia 20 de fevereiro. O evento marcou o início das discussões do seminário “População e Desenvolvimento na Agenda do Cairo: balanço e desafios”. Para mais informações, acesse: www.sae.gov.br

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Page 1: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

INSTITUTE FOR LABOUR AND SOCIAL INSURANCE

Prof. Dr. Alexander Razumov

[email protected]

Ministry for Labour and Social Protection of the Russian Federation

(BRICS COOPERATION ON POPULATION ISSUES: INAUGURAL SEMINAR, 28 FEBRUARY –

04 MARCH 2014, MBOMBELA, SOUTH AFRICA)

Page 2: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

Main Legislative Documents of Population Policy

Concept of Demographic policy of the Russian Federation up to 2025 adopted

by the President of Russia Decree № 1351 on 9 October 2007. It defines objectives

and strategies of demographic development.

President of Russia Decree № 637 on 22 June 2006 “On measures of

promoting/inviting back to Russia of fellow/former citizens and their settlement in

Russia”.

Federal law “On additional measures of state support of families with children”

№ 256-FL on 29 December 2006. It put into practice since 1 January 2007 several

new allowances/grants on maternity and childhood including maternity capital and

increased old ones.

President of Russia Decree № 606 on 7 May 2012 “On measures to realizing

demographic policy in the Russian Federation”.

Page 3: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

146890,1 146303,6

145649,3 144963,6

144333,6 143801 143236,6 142862,7 142747,5 142737,2 142833,5 142865,4 143056,4

140000

141000

142000

143000

144000

145000

146000

147000

148000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Po

pu

lati

on

siz

e, t

ho

usa

nd

per

son

s

Years

73,1 73,2

73,3 73,3

73,5

73,1 73,2

73,3

73,5 73,5 73,6

73,8 73,9

72,6

72,8

73

73,2

73,4

73,6

73,8

74

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f u

rba

n

po

pu

lati

on

, p

ercen

t

Years

26,9 26,8

26,7 26,7

26,5

26,9 26,8

26,7

26,5 26,5 26,4

26,2 26,1

25,6

25,8

26

26,2

26,4

26,6

26,8

27

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f ru

ral

po

pu

lati

on

, p

ercen

t

Years

Slide 3

Alexander Razumov

Population Size in the Russian Federation as of 1st January

Page 4: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

Components of Total Population Size Changes, thousand persons

146890,1 146303,6

145649,3

144963,6

144333,6 143801

143236,6 142862,7 142747,5 142737,2 142833,5 142865,4 143056,4

-0,4 -0,45 -0,47

-0,43 -0,37 -0,39

-0,26

-0,08

-0,01

0,07 0,02

0,13

0,2

-0,6

-0,5

-0,4

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

140000

141000

142000

143000

144000

145000

146000

147000

148000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Years

Population, as of 1st January Total annual increase, percent

-586,5 -654,3 -685,7

-630 -532,6 -564,4

-373,9

-115,2

-10,3

96,3 31,9 191

290,7

-949,1 -932,8 -916,5 -888,5 -793

-846,5

-687,1

-470,3 -362

-248,9 -239,6 -129,1 -4,3

362,6 278,5 230,8 258,5 260,4 282,1 313,2 355,1 351,7 345,2

271,5 320,1

295

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Annual change

total increase natural increase net migration

Slide 4

Alexander Razumov

Page 5: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

Distribution of Population by Sex and Age in 2012, persons

66176283

76880100 Males

Females

917708 851544 861568 855373 811470 3716234 3364658 3895343 5897188 6197246 5518922 5068599 4534476 4739931 5303547 4437074 3463571 1485527 2119364 1118678 729802 288460

868465 808267 818295 816241 770572

3544547 3202294

3736229

5701511 6131148

5597343

5311353

4805447 5283256

6256988

5777721

4916216

2410011

4212239

2584087 2099340

1228530

1786173 1659811

1679863 1671614

1582042

7260781

6566952

7631572

11598699

12328394

11116265

10379952

9339923

10023187

11560535

10214795

8379787

3895538

6331603

3702765

2829142

1516990

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

under 1

1 2 3 4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 and over

of them at age, years

Males Females .

Population, total - 143056383

Slide 5

Alexander Razumov

Page 6: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

Population by Sex as of 1st January

68698 68339 67922 67491 67072 66696 66302 66052 65976 65961 66015 66050 66176

78192 77965 77727 77473 77262 77105 76934 76811 76772 76776 76818 76815 76880

146890 146304 145649 144964 144334 143801 143236 142863 142748 142737 142833 142865 143056

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

tho

usa

nd

pe

rso

ns

Years

Population, including

males females Population, thousand persons

46,8 46,7 46,6 46,6 46,5 46,4 46,3 46,2 46,2 46,2 46,2 46,2 46,3

53,2 53,3 53,4 53,4 53,5 53,6 53,7 53,8 53,8 53,8 53,8 53,8 53,7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

pe

rce

nt

Years

Share in total population size

males females

Slide 6

Alexander Razumov

Page 7: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

Вirths, Deaths and Natural Increase

1266800 1311604 1396967 1477301 1502477 1457376 1479637 1610122 1713947 1761687 1788948 1796629 1902084

2225332 2254856 2332272 2365826 2295402 2303935 2166703 2080445 2075954 2010543 2028516 1925720 1906335

-958532 -943252 -935305 -888525 -792925 -846559 -687066

-470323 -362007 -248856 -239568 -129091 -4251

-1500000

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total, persons

births deaths natural increase

8,7 9 9,7 10,2 10,4 10,2 10,3 11,3 12 12,3 12,5 12,6 13,3

15,3 15,6 16,2 16,4 15,9 16,1 15,1 14,6 14,5 14,1 14,2 13,5 13,3

-6,6 -6,6 -6,5 -6,2 -5,5 -5,9 -4,8

-3,3 -2,5 -1,8 -1,7 -0,9

0

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Per 1000 population

births deaths natural increase

Slide 7

Alexander Razumov

Page 8: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

1,195 1,223 1,286 1,32 1,344

1,294 1,305

1,416 1,502 1,542 1,567 1,582

1,691 1,73

1,089 1,124 1,189 1,224 1,253

1,207 1,21 1,294

1,372 1,415 1,439 1,442

1,541 1,554 1,564 1,633 1,662 1,654

1,576 1,601

1,798

1,912 1,941 1,983

2,056

2,215

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Years

Total population Urban population Rural population

Slide 8

Alexander Razumov

Total Fertility Rate

Page 9: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

Life Expectancy at Birth, years

65,34 65,23 64,95 64,84 65,31 65,37

66,69 67,61 67,99

68,78 68,94 69,83

70,24 70,7

59,03 58,92 58,68 58,53 58,91 58,92

60,43

61,46 61,92

62,87 63,09 64,04

64,56 65,2

72,26 72,17 71,9 71,85 72,36 72,47

73,34 74,02 74,28

74,79 74,88 75,61 75,86 76,2

55

60

65

70

75

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

males and females males females

Slide 9

Alexander Razumov

Page 10: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

Life Expectancy at Birth, years Slide 10

Alexander Razumov

65,69 65,57 65,4 65,36 65,87 66,1

67,43 68,37 68,77

69,57 69,69 70,51 70,83

59,35 59,23 59,09 59,01 59,42 59,58

61,12

62,2 62,67

63,65 63,82 64,67

65,1

72,46 72,37 72,18 72,2 72,73 72,99

73,88 74,54 74,83

75,34 75,39 76,1 76,27

55

60

65

70

75

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Years

Urban population

males and females males females

Page 11: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

Life Expectancy at Birth, years Slide 11

Alexander Razumov

64,34 64,25 63,68 63,34

63,77 63,45

64,74 65,59 65,93

66,67 66,92

67,99 68,61

58,14 58,07 57,54 57,2 57,56 57,22

58,69 59,57

60 60,86 61,19

62,4 63,12

71,66 71,57 71,09 70,81

71,27 71,06 71,86

72,56 72,77 73,27 73,42

74,21 74,66

55

60

65

70

75

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Rural population

males and females males females

Page 12: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

504564 514688 536845 567031 573043 590752 534355 495968 487835 451260 443745 415486 394762

126418 134799 142357 150548 147827 149153

134125 125933 122745

116240 113096 107347 101550

630982 649487

679202 717579 720870 739905 668480

621901 610580 567500 556841

522833 496312

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Years

Total, persons

males females males and females

Deaths at Working Age

11,5 11,8 12,2 12,7 12,7 13 11,7

10,9 10,7 10 9,9

9,3 8,9

2,9 3,1 3,3 3,4 3,3 3,4 3 2,9 2,8 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,4

7,3 7,5 7,8 8,1 8,1 8,3 7,5 7 6,9 6,4 6,3 6 5,8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Years

Per 1000 persons of the corresponding sex and age

males females males and females

Slide 12

Alexander Razumov

Page 13: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

Infant Mortality

11248 11273 10703 10429 10090 9416 8660 8598 8234 8182 7626 7572 9219

8038 7831 7704 7713 7249 6657 6419 6260 6202 6089 5779 5596 7087

19286 19104 18407 18142 17339 16073

15079 14858 14436 14271 13405

13168 16306

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Years

Death of infants under 1 year

boys girls boys and girls

17,3 16,9 15,3

13,8 13,1 12,5 11,4

10,5 9,5 9,1

8,3 8,3 9,5 13,2 12,5

11,6 10,9 10 9,4 9

8,1 7,5 7,1 6,7 6,5 7,7

15,3 14,6 13,3

12,4 11,6 11

10,2 9,4

8,5 8,1 7,5 7,4 8,6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Years

Infant deaths per 1000 live births

boys girls boys and girls

Slide 13

Alexander Razumov

Page 14: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

International Migration, persons

326.561

183.650 175.068 119.661 110.374

163.101 177.657

273.872 261.170 261.495

171.940

310.549 363.955

6.259 9.800 9.544 9.483 8.783 5.386 8.723 13.084 6.231 5.667 6.394 11.413 11.706 26.510 2.071 1.696 1.194 1.005

8.743 1.432 3.035 14.213 12.745 13.322 34.573 42.020

359.330

195.521 186.308

130.338 120.162

177.230 187.812

289.991 281.614 279.907

191.656

356.535

417.681

-

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

450.000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Arrivals to the Russian Federation

CIS countries EU countries other countries Arrivals to the Russian Federation, total

80.510 61.570 52.099 46.081 37.017 35.418 35.262 31.329 25.542 20.326 21.206 22.568

95.572 45.064

59.596 54.586 47.937 42.778

25.236 18.799 15.684

8.795 7.509 7.185 7.749 8.606 20.146

2.657 2.733 2.478 2.806 9.144 3.117 3.008 5.171 4.623 5.187 6.457 18.573

145.720

123.823

109.418 96.496

82.601 69.798

57.178 50.021

39.508 32.458 33.578 36.774

122.751

-

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Departures from the Russian Federation

CIS countries EU countries other countries Departures from the Russian Federation, total

Slide 14

Alexander Razumov

Page 15: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

President of Russia Decree № 637 on 22 June 2006 “On measures of

promoting/inviting back to Russia of fellow/former citizens and their settlement

in Russia”: main results

146,7 thousand of fellow/former citizens came back to Russia for the period 2007-1

October 2013.

15

Page 16: DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY IN RUSSIA

Thank you for your attention!