Scotland Public Opinion Monitor August 2014

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As Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling prepare for the first live television debate of the campaign, Ipsos MORI Scotland’s latest poll for STV News shows that ‘Yes’ continues to make some gains while there are signs that more and more people are now making up their minds ahead of September.

Text of Scotland Public Opinion Monitor August 2014

  • 1 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor August 2014
  • 2 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention Base: All (1,006); all certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July 3rd August 2014 Yes 37% No 52% Undecided 11% All voters Yes 40% No 54% Undecided 7% Certain to vote
  • 3 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention recent trend Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 No Yes Undecided
  • 4 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Voting intention excluding undecided Base: All excluding undecided (893); all certain to vote excluding undecided (771). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July 3rd August 2014 Yes 42% No 58% All voters Yes 42% No 58% Certain to vote
  • 5 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention excluding undecided recent trend Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 No Yes
  • 6 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and definitely decided how they will vote Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (683). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July 3rd August 2014 Yes 41% No 59% All definitely decided and certain to vote 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 No Yes
  • 7 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI And, how likely would you be to vote in an immediate referendum, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 that you would be absolutely certain NOT to vote? Turnout is likely to be high Base: All. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 55+ All 16-24 % Absolutely certain to vote
  • 8 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI 33% Scots who may not vote (19%) will vote but are undecided (5%) will vote but may change their vote (9%)
  • 9 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI 17% 20% 15% 83% 80% 85% All Yes voters No voters Definitely decided May change mind Have you definitely decided to vote in this way or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Definitely decided or might you change your mind? Base: All giving a voting intention (893). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July 3rd August 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 % Definitely decided No Yes
  • 10 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI Which way are you most inclined to vote? Which way are undecided voters leaning? Base: All undecided (113). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July 3rd August 2014 Yes 29% No 23% Undecided 47% All undecided voters
  • 11 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI If you still havent made up your mind on the day of the referendum, which of the following are you most likely to do? What will voters do if they havent made up their minds by polling day? Base: All who are undecided or may change their mind (254). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July 3rd August 2014 Vote Yes 26% Vote No 38% Not vote at all 22% Other/Don't know 14% All who are undecided or may change their mind
  • 12 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI Long-term trend of support for independence Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
  • 13 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI Voting intention by gender Base: All certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July 3rd August 2014 47% 48% Yes No 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Men Women % voting Yes 33% 59%
  • 14 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI 40% 53% 7% Voting intention by age group Base: All certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July 3rd August 2014 Yes No 44% 54% 56% 36% 8% 33% 60% 7% 16-24 25-34 35-54 55+ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+ *Jan 2012 May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds % voting Yes
  • 15 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI Voting intention by levels of deprivation Base: All certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July 3rd August 2014 43% 56% 26% 66% Most deprived areas Least deprived areas Yes No 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Most deprived areas Least deprived areas % voting Yes
  • 16 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI 95% 4% 90% 5% Voting intention by party support Base: All certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July 3rd August 2014 Yes No 84% 11% 18% 77% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% SNP Lab Con Lib Dem % voting Yes
  • 17 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI Impact of the Commonwealth Games
  • 18 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI 18 Commonwealth Games Very closely 27% Fairly closely 42% Not very closely 16% Not closely at all 15% How closely, if at all, have you been following the games? Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July 3rd August 2014 Very successful 67% Fairly successful 29% Fairly/very unsuccessful 1% Don't know 3% Based on what you have read, seen or heard, how successful or unsuccessful do you think the Games have been overall?
  • 19 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI 19 What impact, if any, do you think the Games will have on how you plan to vote in the referendum? Impact of the Games on referendum voting More likely to vote Yes 7% More likely to vote No 3% Make no difference 89% 14% 1% 10% 0% 5% 1% Yes voters No voters Undecided voters More likely Yes More likely No Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July 3rd August 2014
  • 20 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI Scottish Parliament voting
  • 21 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Ipsos MORI If there were ele