Scottish Public Opinion Monitor: January 2015

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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor January 2015

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Westminster Parliament voting

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Q. How would you vote if there were a UK General Election tomorrow?

General Election – Voting Intention

Base: All giving a voting intention = 874; all certain to vote = 650. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 18+, 12th-19th January 2015

SNP 51%

Lab 25%

Cons 13%

Lib Dem 4%

Green 5%

Others 3%

All giving a voting intention

SNP 52%

Lab 24%

Cons 12%

Lib Dem

4%

Others 3%

Green 4%

Certain to vote

SNP lead

+26

SNP lead

+28

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Perceptions of key figures

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36% 42%

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing her/his job as First Minister/Deputy First Minister?

Satisfaction with FM/Deputy FM

Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t know

Net

satisfaction

49%

16%

65%

67%

31%

47%

21%

32%

27%

64%

19%

43%

3%

6%

34%

36%

5%

Nicola Sturgeon

John Swinney

69% 20%

43% 30% 27%

7%

Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 18+, 12th – 19th January 2015

11%

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Willie Rennie

42%

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his/her job as / Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the

Scottish Conservatives/Scottish Green Party/?

Satisfaction with Scottish party leaders

Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 18+, 12th – 19tth January 2015

Jim Murphy

Ruth Davidson

Patrick Harvie


Net

satisfaction

-8%

-4%

21%

-16%

34%

20%

47%

38%

38%

36%

17%

28%

45%

44%

30%

38%

6%

32

%

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36% 42%

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of Labour Party

Satisfaction with UK party leaders

Ed Miliband


Net

satisfaction

-40%

-51%

-45%

65%

67%

47%

32%

27%

64%

43%

3%

6%

34%

5%

David Cameron

Nick Clegg

27% 67% 5%

18% 13% 69%

21% 66% 13%


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Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the

Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?

Satisfaction with party leaders trend

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Jan-15

Jim Murphy Nick Clegg Ruth DavidsonWillie Rennie Patrick Harvie David CameronEd Milliband Nicola Sturgeon John Swinney

Jim Murphy, 34%

Base: All . Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

John Swinney, 43%

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Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the

Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?

Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Jan-15

Nick Clegg Ruth Davidson Willie RenniePatrick Harvie David Cameron Ed MilibandNicola Sturgeon Jim Murphy John Swinney

John Swinney,

16%

Jim Murphy, -4%

Base: All . Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

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Q. As you may know, Jim Murphy was elected as the new leader of the Scottish Labour Party in December 2014. Does his appointment make you more likely or less likely to vote for the Labour Party at the UK General Election in May? Does it make you….

General Election – Impact of new Labour leader


7%

13%

48%

9%

19% A lot more likely

A little more likely

Makes no difference

A little less likely

A lot less likely

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• This presents the topline results from Scotland

• Results are based on a survey of 1,001 respondents

(adults aged 18+) conducted by telephone

• Fieldwork dates: 12th-19th January 2015

• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using

census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private

sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly

Public Sector Employment series data

• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to

computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of

“don’t know” categories

• Results are based on all respondents (1,001) unless

otherwise stated

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@IpsosMORIScot

News & Politics

Scottish Public Opinion Monitor: January 2015