The Power of the Boomer MarketGrowth in Older Adult Population in Austin, Texas

AustinUP Panel DiscussionApril 21, 2015

Bass Lecture Hall

Brian KelseyCivic Analytics LLC

7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108Austin, TX 78757

866-512-3835brian@civicanalytics.comhttp://civicanalytics.com

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• How fast is Austin’s older adult population growing?

• Where in Austin is the growth concentrated—urban core or suburban communities?

• What are potential economic & workforce impacts?

Presentation Overview

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• Population change (nom) #10

• Population growth (%) #2

• Job change (nom) #7

• Job growth (%) #1

• GDP change (nom) #21

• GDP growth (%) #3

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jobs are from 2000 to 2013. GDP is from 2001 to 2013 (2000 not available). Growth rankings (%) are among large MSAs.

For more on the Austin economy & U.S. economic development trends visit Insights at CivicAnalytics.com.

Austin’s rank among large U.S. metros (2000-)

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Age 60+2013

Age 60+2008

Age 60+Growth

Total PopGrowth

Charlotte 405,015 245,932 65% 37%

Grand Rapids 183,186 121,626 51% 31%

Austin 262,054 191,734 37% 14%

Raleigh 181,086 137,472 32% 12%

Indianapolis 338,107 264,167 28% 14%

Riverside 714,075 558,927 28% 6%

Columbus 334,654 262,308 28% 11%

Jacksonville 276,377 219,170 26% 6%

Nashville 303,288 240,522 26% 13%

San Antonio 387,312 307,818 26% 12%

Fastest growing (%) age 60+ markets in U.S.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 & 2008 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Table S0102. Forecast data is from EMSI.Table shows rank among metropolitan statistical areas with 1 million+ population (2013).

Austin ranks #3 in growth (%) of age 60+ population among large metros of one million or more residents.

Age 60+ population increased from 12% of Austin’s total population in 2008 to 14% in 2013, in line with % increases in other large TX metros.

Austin’s 60+ population is expected to surpass 350,000 people by 2020, nearing 17% of total population.

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ZIP City% Total Pop

Age 60+Population

Age 60+

78633 Georgetown 61% 14,983

78628 Georgetown 27% 7,657

78602 Bastrop 22% 6,777

78731 Austin 24% 6,770

78746 Austin 20% 6,196

78734 Austin 24% 4,793

78676 Wimberley 36% 4,156

76574 Taylor 21% 4,019

78645 Leander 30% 3,890

78735 Austin 21% 3,807

17 zip codes in Austin MSA w/ 1,000+ age 60+ residents comprising 20%+ total population

Source: EMSI.Table shows top 10 of 17 zip codes ranked by population age 60+. Bold zip codes are shown on map.

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ZIP CityAge 60+

2015Change

2015-20Growth

2015-20

78633 Georgetown 14,983 4,329 29%

78613 Cedar Park 9,256 2,638 29%

78660 Pflugerville 8,619 2,313 27%

78666 San Marcos 9,332 2,228 24%

78745 Austin 9,811 2,200 22%

78628 Georgetown 7,657 2,065 27%

78759 Austin 8,655 1,890 22%

78641 Leander 6,372 1,852 29%

78681 Round Rock 7,140 1,682 24%

78664 Round Rock 6,353 1,589 25%

Fastest growing (nominal) age 60+ zip codes

Source: EMSI.Bold zip codes are shown on map.

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ZIP CityAge 60+

2015Change

2015-20Growth

2015-20

78634 Hutto 2,849 1,081 38%

78653 Manor 2,486 856 34%

78610 Buda 4,616 1,581 34%

78645 Leander 3,890 1,286 33%

78691 Pflugerville 369 114 31%

78646 Leander 208 62 30%

78630 Cedar Park 275 80 29%

78641 Leander 6,372 1,852 29%

78633 Georgetown 14,983 4,329 29%

78613 Cedar Park 9,256 2,638 29%

Fastest growing (%) age 60+ zip codes

Source: EMSI.Bold zip codes are shown on map.

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• Austin residents age 60+ are more likely to be in labor force than the U.S. average (35% versus 28%).

• Austin residents age 60+ are more educated than U.S. average (39% bachelor’s+ versus 26%).

Economy: older adult population is key part of Austin’s economic development story

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates.Data is for the Austin-Round Rock MSA.

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• 17% of workers are age 55+ but much higher in agriculture (32%), government (25%), especially in management occupations.

• Estimated total HH income of age 65+ is about $7.5 billion.

Economy: older adult population is key part of Austin’s economic development story

Source: EMSI, ESRI.

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• Partner w/ City of Austin SBDP to identify older adult population’s role in entrepreneurship.

• Collaborate w/ workforce boards on understanding how long-term unemployment may be affecting older adult workers.

AustinUP Opportunities

7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108Austin, Texas 78757

@civicanalyticshttp://civicanalytics.com