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Trends in the World Traditional & Renewable Heating Markets Krystyna Dawson Heating & Renewables Manager BSRIA WMI Mostra, March 2014

Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

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Trends in the world traditional & renewable heating markets presented at MCE Milan 2014 Covers energy supply to Europe, World Heating and Renewables market

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Page 1: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

Trends in the World Traditional &

Renewable Heating Markets

Krystyna Dawson

Heating & Renewables

Manager

BSRIA WMI

Mostra, March 2014

Page 2: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

2 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Agenda

Energy supply to Europe – uncertainty rising again

Efficiency and Control on the top of the agenda – ErP and its impacts

Space and water heating in Europe

How competitive are renewables in Europe

2020 outlook for main EU heating markets

World heating – hot and cold spots

World Renewables markets

Future prospects for European heating controls

2

Page 3: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

3 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Energy supply to Europe

3

First Ukrainian crisis - January 2009

Souce: bbc news

Recent events

are again

threatening the

stability of

supply

Targets for increased share of

RES in electricity production

have been set

US and Europe discovered the

shale gas and fracking

Page 4: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

4 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Share of RES & Fracking

4

France Italy Spain Poland Germany UK Belgium

Share of RES

in electricity

generation

2012:17%

2020: 27%

2012: 11%

2020: 38 %

2012: 11%

2020: 31%

2012: 20%

2020: 26%

2012: 27%

2020: 36%

2012:10%

2020: 19%

2012: 8%

2020: 21%

Substantial amounts available

Permits issued

Lots of uncertainty about

environmental impact

and economic viability

Ambitious targets,

High cost

Energy Efficiency,

Management,

Control,

at the top of the

agenda.

Page 5: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

5 Excellence in Market Intelligence

ErP - Impact on products

Increase in Combined and Hybrid systems Eco Design

A +++ ≥150%

A ++ ≥125%

A + ≥98%

A ≥90%

B ≥82%

C ≥75%

D ≥36%

E ≥34%

Cogeneration Gas HP

Condensing

boilers

Non-

condensing

boilers

Ground /Water to

water HP

Air to water HP

From 26/9/2015

products with Label

D to G are no longer

allowed to be sold

Hybrid Heat Pumps

Combined CB + ST system

+ enhanced Controls

Fuel cell

Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015

5

Page 6: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

6 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Combining systems

Product label

High efficiency

gas boiler

Solar thermal

system (VT)

Temperature

controls

System label example:

89%

6%

4%

+

+

System

efficiency 99%

A + ≥98%

System label

Separate labelling for

Space Heating and SHW.

6

Page 7: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

7 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Technology shift

Domestic gas & oil boiler sales, 2012 - 2017

Outside the EU market

12% 15%

88%

85%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2012 2017

Inside the EU market ‘000 units ‘000 units

70%

85%

30%

15%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2012 2017

non-condensing

condensing

7

Page 8: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

8 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Water Heating Europe

8

Water Heating market,

by type of provision, 2013

Water Heating market

by type of provision, 2010

• Combi boilers have been the most

popular product.

• The share of ST systems has fallen.

Based on BSRIA market analysis for 19 European countries

Electric storage

41%

Gas storage

1%

Electric inst 8%

Gas inst 10%

Combi boilers

35%

ST systems

5%

SHWHP 0%

ST Water Heaters

3% SHW HP

1%

Combi boilers 41%

Electric storage

38%

Gas storage 1%

Electric instantaneous

8%

Gas instantaneous

8%

Page 9: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

9 Excellence in Market Intelligence

European Solar thermal Market

2012 - 2017

‘000 m2

9

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2012

2013

2017

2012 – 2.8 mln m2

2017 – 3.2 mln m2

CAGR 2.2%

Page 10: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

10 Excellence in Market Intelligence

European Heat Pump market

2012 – 2017

CAGR

2012 – 2017

Cylinder-

integrated WH:

17%

Split:

14%

Exhaust-air:

1%

Monobloc:

5%

Ground /

Water: 1%

2013 Ground/Water sales:

64,200

Split: 84,300

Monobloc: 78,800

Cylinder-integrated WH:

156,300 Exhaust air:

13,800

Based on data for: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Switzerland, UK

10

Split: 153,700

Monobloc: 73,200

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Cylinderintegrated HPWH

Split A/W Monoblock A/W Exhaust air HP Ground source HP

2012

2013

2017

units

Page 11: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

11 Excellence in Market Intelligence

How competitive are renewables

in Europe

11

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

GCB GCB+Combi ST HP HP + Combi ST Hybrid HP Fuel cell

Operating cost, € per year, 2013 (existing dwellings)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

GCB GCB+Combi ST HP HP + Combi ST Hybrid HP Fuel cell

Germany

UK

Lifetime cost, € per year, 2013 (existing dwellings)

Page 12: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

12 Excellence in Market Intelligence

World Heating Market Value by region, 2012

North America

Radiators 0%

UFH 7%

WH 74%

CB 5%

DB** 14%

Total: US$ 5,658 million

Radiators 1%

UFH 6%

WH 79%

CB 2%

DB 12%

Japan

Total: US$ 5,214 million

Radiators 23%

UFH 11%

WH 23%

CB 4%

DB 39%

Europe* Total: US$ 18,897 million

• Europe includes 25 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany , Greece, Italy, Netherlands,

Norway , Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech

Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

** Domestic boilers in NA doe not include furnaces.

Population (million inhabitants)

USA + Canada Europe Japan China

352 778 127 1,360

12

China Total: US$ 7,100 million

Radiators 20%

UFH 19%

WH 47%

CB 5%

DB 9%

Page 13: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

13 Excellence in Market Intelligence

World Heating hot and cold spots, 2013

Warm spots ≥10-20%

Cold spots <0%

Hot spots ≥20%

Cool spots ≥0-10%

2012/2011 value growth

Belgium

Russia

China

North America

Turkey

Netherlands

Sweden

Spain Japan

France Germany

Italy

Norway

South Korea

Products included: Domestic boilers, commercial boilers, traditional water heaters, radiators & wet underfloor heating.

UK

13

Poland

Iran

Page 14: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

14 Excellence in Market Intelligence

World Water Heating market,

by technology

14

EIWH 36%

ESWH 36%

GIWH 20%

GSWH 8% OSWH

0%

Global market:

89.8 million units

2012 Sales volume per technology

0 5000 10000 15000

China

North America

Russia

France

Italy

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

China

Japan

Russia

North America

Spain

0200040006000

North America

China

Italy

France

Germany

02004006008001000

China

Germany

Russia

North America

Turkey

To

p 5

GIW

H m

ark

et

To

p 5

ES

WH

ma

rke

t

To

p 5

EIW

H m

ark

et

To

p 5

GS

WH

ma

rke

t

Page 15: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

15 Excellence in Market Intelligence

World Renewable Market Value by region, 2012

* Europe HP, ST & HRV includes 13 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany, Italy,

Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom,, Czech Republic, Poland.

Europe CHP / FC & Gas HP includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Poland

15

Europe* Total: US$ 4,604 mln

El. Hydronic HP

10%

ST systems 13%

Gas HP 0%

CHP/ Fuel Cells 21%

Heat recovery

56%

El. HP 44.7%

Solar Thermal s

27.6%

Gas HP) 1.1%

CHP/ Fuel Cells.5%

Heat recovery

21.1%

USA Total: US$ 343.0 mln

El. Hydronic

HP 75%

ST systems

2%

Gas HP 0%

CHP/ Fuel Cells 22%

Heat recovery

1%

Japan Total: US$ 3,207 mln

El. Hydronic

HP 11%

ST systems 45%

Gas HP 0%

CHP/ Fuel Cells 43%

Heat recovery

1%

China Total: US$ 10,116 mln

Page 16: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

16 Excellence in Market Intelligence

World hydronic Heat Pump Market by value, 2012

16

Regional market, share by value Top 10 ranking by country, US$ mln

105.9

107.9

116.9

136.9

196.1

277

362.6

662.9

1177.6

2,398

0 500 1000 1500 2000

Finland

Italy

Australia

Austria

Switzerland

Sweden

France

Germany

China

Japan

Total market: US$ 6,022 million

38.0% 61.3%

0.7%

Europe Asia Pacific Americas

Page 17: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

17 Excellence in Market Intelligence

World Heat pump Major players

17

Top 10 players by value 2012, US$ million

Panasonic, 796

Mitsubishi Electric, 656.1

Daikin, 644.3

Corona, 359.2

Nibe 275.1

Bosch Thermotechnik,

218.4

Midea, 213.4

Stiebel Eltron, 151.8

Glen Dimplex, 133.9

Viessmann, 102.5

1

2

3

Page 18: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

18 Excellence in Market Intelligence

World Solar Thermal Market by value, 2012

18

6,125

1,341.6

575.6 211.3 38.5

Asia Pacific

Europe

Americas

India

Africa

Regional market, share by value

59.2

73.8

89.1

120.8

181.6

204.1

329.2

456.3

668.2

5,720.2

Japan

Mexico

Italy

Poland

Turkey

India

Australia

Brazil

Germany

China

Top 10 ranking by country, US$ mln

Total market: 8,292 million US$

Page 19: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

19 Excellence in Market Intelligence

European heating controls

19

‘000 units

Traditional heating controls sales (DE, F, UK), 2012 / 2020

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2012 2020

TRV other valves

dampers/actuators system controls

Room Thermostats

22% growth

72%

94%

81%

28%

6%

19%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

France UK Germany

Smart home controls*

Traditional heatingcontrols

Traditional & smart home controls market, 2012

€ million

Page 20: Heating and renewable trends edited - MCE 2014

20 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Thank you

Contact:

Krystyna Dawson

Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables

BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence

Direct: +44 (0)1344 465 638; Mob: +44 (0)7990 595836

Email: [email protected]