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What is regional development policy for and how does it work?
4th International Conference on Overcoming Regional Disparities “Implementing Regional Development Policies: What are the key factors for success?”Chişinǎu, 22 May 2014
William TompsonHead of the Urban Development ProgrammePublic Governance and Territorial Development Directorate OECD
2
What is the problem?
Wide variation in growth performance before the crisis
Convergence vs Agglomeration
3
What is the problem?
Tends to concentrate at all scales
y = 0.6509x-1.311
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n t
oO
EC
D g
row
th
TL2 regions
Source: Calculations based on the OECD Regional Database..
4
What is the problem?
Concentration is increasing over time
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n t
oO
EC
D g
row
th
TL2 regions
95_98 98_01 01_04 04_07
Source: Calculations based on the OECD Regional Database..
5
What is the problem?
In most economies, a few big hubs account for a large share of aggregate growth. This implies:• Policy makers are right to be concerned about the
performance of the big regional hubs that are their main drivers of growth.
• Most growth still occurs outside the hubs. An exclusive focus on the hubs neglects the potential of policies that can help the great mass of regions.
• The notion of an “average region” is effectively meaningless, statistically and in policy terms.
What this means for policy
6
What is the problem?
Overall, the crisis contributed to rising disparities across the OECD
Differential impact of the crisis
obs 2007-2010 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010
urban (PU) 307 -0.67% -0.21% -3.91% 2.41%
intermediate 386 -0.86% 0.11% -3.75% 1.53%
PRC 301 -0.44% 0.84% -3.88% 2.09%
PRR 199 -1.22% -0.57% -4.30% 1.69%
GDP growth (2007-2010)
7
What is the problem?
Labour mobility – constrained in many places – did not alter the picture much in the short term.
Differential impact of the crisis
2007-2010 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010
urban (PU) 307 -1.10% -0.67% -4.38% 2.01%
intermediate 386 -1.18% -0.38% -4.18% 1.38%
PRC 301 -0.56% 0.66% -4.06% 2.06%
PRR 199 -1.27% -0.75% -4.38% 1.77%
GDP per capita growth (2007-2010)
8
What is the problem?
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..
Chi
le
Mex
ico
Col
ombi
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Bra
zil
Indo
nesi
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Ukr
aine
Tur
key
Hun
gary
OE
CD
av
Can
ada
Sou
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fric
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Cze
ch R
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Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Italy
Uni
ted
St..
.
Fin
land
Nor
way
Pol
and
Por
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ted
Ki..
.
Aus
tral
ia
Den
mar
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Aus
tria
Spa
in
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itzer
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Fra
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Kor
ea
Net
herla
nds
Japa
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0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.61
0.46
0.410.400.370.360.35
0.310.29
0.280.250.240.22
0.200.190.190.180.160.150.150.150.140.130.130.130.130.120.120.120.11
0.090.090.080.080.060.06
Gini idex of GDP per capita (TL2), 2011
Large inter-regional disparities
9
What is the problem?
• Little evidence of convergence over time
No evidence of convergence over time
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
1.38777878078145E-17
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.0800000000000001
0.1
0.12
0.14 Change in the inter-regional Gini coefficient, 1995-2011
10
Why is this a problem?
Market forces and economy-wide policies do not guarantee first-best outcomes from the perspective of:1. Efficiency:
Spatially blind policies are not spatially neutral. Chronically under-performing regions are a drag on aggregate
growth.
2. Equity Citizens’ access to services and life chances should not depend
on where they are born. Not everyone can/will/should move!
3. Political reality: Failure to act can lead to costly remediation in the long run.
Agglomeration is beneficial, but other factors call for a differentiated approach…
11
The solution: unlocking regions’potential
• Regions compete on absolute advantage. (Forget your Ricardo!)
• This a need to focus on immobile assets.
• Regional development strategy relatively immobile assets + policy co-ordination + multi-level governance.
• This is where much stakeholder engagement occurs: information revelation and balancing top-down leadership and bottom-up initiative.
Designing regional development strategies
12
The solution
It’s not all about cohesion investments and shiny new infrastructure projects. Good regional development policy is nothing more nor less than good economic policy, without recourse to macroeconomic policy instruments. So think about:• Entrepreneurship, entry, regulation and competition.• Education, training and skills.• Innovation.• Active labour-market policies.
Don’t neglect the boring bits
13
The pitfalls
• Too many goals dispersion of effort.
• Focus on current service delivery rather than development.
• Too much localism (often linked to the above!).
• Compensatory logic (often contributes to dispersion).
• Too little variety: often the result of following the (actual or perceived) priorities of the national government or donor.
• Too little risk.
• Failure to think seriously about spillovers.
Regional policy for national performance
14
Why policy co-ordination?
Isolated sectoral actions have unintended outcomes.
Persistence of inequality
Infrastructure provision
Leaking by linking
Policyresponses
15
Why policy co-ordination?
Isolated sectoral actions have unintended outcomes.
with labour mobility
Persistence of inequality
Policyresponses
Human capital formation
Brain drain
16
Towards an integrated approach
Infrastructure provision
Human capital formation
Businessenvironment
Innovation
Regional growth and convergence
at the regional scale
Many countries are reforming in this direction, but implementation is still difficult.
Policyresponses
17
Paradigm shift in regional policy
The “old new” OECD Paradigm: still a challengeTraditional
Regional Policies New Paradigm
ObjectivesBalancing economic performances by
temporary compensating for disparities
Tapping under-utilised regional potential for competitiveness
Strategies Sectoral approach Integrated development projects
Tools Subsidies and state aid Soft and hard infrastructures
Actors Central government Different levels of government
Unit of analysis Administrative regions Functional regions
Redistribution from leading to lagging regions
Building competitive regions by bringing together actors and targeting key local assets
18
A word about structural funds
• Don’t focus on absorption capacity to the exclusion of all else.
• Money matters but sometimes less is more – harder choices can make for better decisions.
• Impact is greatest when investments take place in the context of a well-developed, cross-sectoral strategy.
• Provision of local amenities is nice – but it’s not a motor for development.
An instrument, not a substitute for policy
19
A word about structural funds
Good practice doesn’t look like this…
20
A word about structural funds
…Or this
21
To sum up
• Provide infrastructure as part of an integrated regional approach.
• Invest in human capital.
• Emphasise innovation and R&D.
• Work at a scale and with a vision that makes sense for growth.
• Focus on integrated regional policies.
• Treat structural funds as a policy tool within an overall strategy – not as a policy in and of themselves.
OECD analysis points to a few broad lessons for policy: