Alabama Center for Real Estate Alabama Center for Real Estate

Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index®Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index®  

2nd Annual Summer Roundtable2nd Annual Summer Roundtable ACRE Leadership CouncilACRE Leadership Council

  Tom Brander, ACRE Council MemberTom Brander, ACRE Council MemberRudulph/Brander Real Estate ReportsRudulph/Brander Real Estate Reports

&&Grayson Glaze, Executive Director, ACREGrayson Glaze, Executive Director, ACRE

  Thursday, July 29, 2010Thursday, July 29, 2010    Bradley Arant Boult Cummings, LLPBradley Arant Boult Cummings, LLP   

Calculation of Survey ResultsCalculation of Survey Results

The economic and Industry indicators use a five-part scale with the following wording: much better, better, about the same, worse, much worse

These choices are weighted 100,75,50,25,0

Index = (Σ weighted responses/# surveys)

Index range is 0 to 100, with 50 as the neutral point, and 0 as much worse

A Quick Summary Q3 2010A Quick Summary Q3 2010

3q chg 3q chg 3q chg 3q chg 3q chg 3q chg 3q chgStatewideOverall 44 -3 45 -2 49 -5 48 -8 44 -2 39 -2 37 -2Residential 43 -4 45 -2 49 -6 48 -9 44 -2 38 -3 36 -1Commercial 46 -1 48 0 49 -4 48 -5 47 3 40 -1 44 0Rural 40 -4 41 -4 46 -5 46 -10 42 -2 36 -2 30 -2Residential 40 -4 42 -2 46 -5 46 -10 41 -2 37 0 30 -1Suburban Urban 44 -4 46 -1 49 -6 48 -9 45 -1 39 -3 39 -1Residential 44 -4 46 -1 49 -7 48 -10 44 -2 39 -3 37 -2Commercial 47 0 49 1 49 -3 48 -5 46 2 42 1 46 1

Inventory Prices CreditTotal Stat National Alabama Sales

Generally the outlook is somewhat unfavorable from last quarter, which was also somewhat unfavorable compared with the 1st quarter outlook. The Commercial sector has a more favorable outlook than the Residential all fronts which is a bit of a surprise. While both groups were negative in their outlooks on credit availability the Commercial market participants were less negative.

A Quick Summary Q3 2010A Quick Summary Q3 2010

Overall scores by region, there was not a lot of difference between the Suburban-urban markets and the Rural markets. The overall result was influenced by the Coastal outlook but view of the remainder of the state has also been trending down. The expectation for sales in all regions except the coast remain at or above the 50 mark indicating a (very) modestly positive outlook. Inventory is expected to continue to worsen. Credit expectations are quite negative.

3q chg 3q chg 3q chg 3q chg 3q chg 3q chg 3q chg

North_Huntsville-Decatur-FlorenceOverall 47 -3 44 -2 56 -4 53 -9 48 -1 44 1 38 -1North_Central-Birmingham-Tuscaloosa-AnnistonOverall 45 -3 47 -2 51 -4 50 -6 45 0 40 -2 39 -3South_Central-Montgomery-Auburn-Wiregrass-DothanOverall 45 -1 46 -1 51 -2 52 -1 45 0 40 0 37 2South_Mobile-BaldwinOverall 36 -8 43 -1 36 -14 34 -21 38 -5 30 -7 33 -3

Total Stat National Sales PricesAlabama Inventory Credit

Origins of ARECI SurveyOrigins of ARECI Survey

In the Fall of 2009 ACRE proposed a statewide online survey of Real Estate sentiment, to be conducted quarterly and called the ARECI Real Estate Survey.Questions were developed in consultation with the Participation of the leadership board of the Alabama Center For Real Estate at The University of Alabama.Alabama all areas of the state have been solicited and sub specialties, such as Residential and Commercial.ACRE recruited participants, while the website, survey analysis, and results newsletter were managed by Tom Brander in conjunction with ACRE.This initial survey received 637 valid responses well distributed over the four regions of the state.

Survey DesignSurvey Design

The ARECI survey is forward-looking and asks during the month prior to a new quarter about expectations for change from the current to the upcoming quarter

There are two general economic indicators:– Real Estate conditions in the United States– Real Estate conditions in Alabama

There are four industry and location specific indicators:– Sales– Inventory– Pricing expectations– Credit Availability

ARECI panelistsARECI panelists

Participation is voluntary; panelists register on the survey websitePanelists recruited by target mailings, association contacts, events, etc.Total participation has begun with 637 participants from all four areas of the stateTargeted Real Estate Professionals; mostly Agents and Brokers, with some Developers and Financing sources

ARECI indicesARECI indices

Each quarter the overall index is calculated and a component index is computed for the six variables on the survey.

Composite indices are also derived for various industry sectors: Residential vs. Commercial

The index and component indices are calculated for the state’s four regions (North, North Central, South Central, South).

As our data deepens and we notice significant divergences more indices may be developed. (e.g. Rural vs. Urban)

ARECI ResultsARECI Results

Results are compiled in a newsletter that is distributed to panelists first and then posted on the ACRE website, http://www.acre.cba.ua.edu/

Survey results are also released to the media.

Presentations made to the ACRE events

We hope that the survey will raise the awareness of the public about ACRE and the importance of the Real Estate industry.

CommentsComments

Help Us Help YouHelp Us Help You

Send comments, questions and suggestions to:

Tombrander@tombrander.com or of course to gglaze@cba.ua.edu Participate in the survey If you have not signed up do so, the link to register is at the top of the ARCE home page.PLEASE answer the next survey, for which, you will receive a e-mail to you with a link to click on to take the survey. That is how we will know about your region and specialty.

Next SurveyNext Survey