Home Price MonitorJune 2011

National Association of REALTORS®Research DivisionCutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure

Highlights

• Existing home prices increased in April. Only new home prices weakened a bit in the month. Over the year, home prices are down a bit, but the decline is smaller and almost non-existent in the distressed-excluded data.

• Housing market activity is seasonal, so year over year comparisons are typically the most informative. However, the expiration of the tax credit one year ago makes year over year comparisons less informative than usual this period.

• Data continue to show that new homes have better price performance over the year; low levels of new construction and very little activity in the new home sector should help maintain this trend though low sales levels also contribute to the substantial volatility in the data.

Outlook• Distressed sales, which hold back existing home prices,

continued to trend down. In May they were 31 percent of all sales.

• Data from the REALTORS® Confidence Index show that the share of distressed sales peaked in the first quarter of 2009 and 2010.

• April and May data suggest that this pattern will also hold in 2011. suggesting that price performance is likely to improve in the months ahead. Stable inventories coupled with the seasonal boost in sales activity will also help support prices.

• Affordability remains high, but continued job growth, confidence, and available financing are necessary for consumers to take advantage. Tight credit spurred by proposed QRM rule changes may hold future buyers back. Learn more about the QRM here.

Home Prices

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER

Home Price Data – Year over Year Change

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER

Home Price Changes

*All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.

Data Series

Apr-11 Monthly Change*

Apr-11 Annual Change*

May-11 Monthly Change*

May-11 Annual Change*

Next Release Date

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes 0.8% -6.5% 3.4% -4.6% 20-JulNAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes 0.4% -6.5% 3.3% -4.5% 20-JulFHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only 1.8% -5.6% -- -- 21-JulS&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 0.7% -4.0% -- -- 26-JulS&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 0.8% -3.1% -- -- 26-JulCoreLogic National HPI 0.7% -7.5% -- -- Mid-JulyCoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded 1.8% -0.5% -- -- Mid-JulyNew 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price -1.1% 4.2% 2.6% -3.4% 26-Jul

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER

Spread of Existing Home Price ChangesYear over Year

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER

Supply and Demand Factors – Inventory

Sources: NAR

Supply – New Housing Starts and Permits

Sources: Census

Underlying Demand – Job Growth and Hires

Sources: BLS

Potential Job Growth – Openings

Sources: BLS

Housing Affordability

Sources: NAR

About the Price Data Series

Data Series Strengths/Weaknesses of Data SeriesNAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing HomesNAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes

FHFA House Price Index: Purchase OnlyWeighted Repeat Sales (WRS) Index, sourced from Fannie/Freddie purchase & refinance mortgages (excludes FHA, VA, Jumbo, Subprime)

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 CoreLogic National HPI CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price Based on home builder interviews in the Survey of Construction

Most timely Data, broad geographic coverage, sourced from MLS and Realtor® board data, data in dollars, total exisiting includes condos and coops

WRS Index, sourced from County recorder data, weighted by property value; quarterly national index (not shown), monthly 10 and 20-city metro indexes and composites are 3 month moving averagesWeighted Repeat Sales Index, sourced from database of loan servicing and County recorder data

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER