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Early History of Ecological Niche Modeling and Species Distribution
Modeling
Town Peterson
University of Kansas
SEND QUESTIONS TO [email protected]
An Exciting Analytical Functionality
• ENM – estimate the ecological niche; SDM –estimate the distribution
• Information on geographic distribution is a crucial currency in many aspects of biodiversity science:– Invasive species biology– Conservation biology– Biogeography– Macroecology
• ENM/SDM offers a means of obtaining such information via analysis of ‘cheap’ and commonly available data
Publication Rate in ENM/SDM
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Publication Rate in ENM/SDM
Year
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Publication of Phillips et al. 2006Elith et al. 2006
Outline• Grinnell and early points of light• Early initiatives
– Australia– Mexico– CLIMEX– GAP
• First complex algorithms– Improving on BIOCLIM– GARP– Statistical school
• End of the beginning– Elith et al. 2006 – broad comparative testing– Phillips et al. 2006 – A Star is Born
Outline• Grinnell and early points of light• Early initiatives
– Australia– Mexico– CLIMEX– GAP
• First complex algorithms– Improving on BIOCLIM– GARP– Statistical school
• End of the beginning– Elith et al. 2006 – broad comparative testing– Phillips et al. 2006 – A Star is Born
Early Niche Confusions
The 'niche' of an animal means its place in the biotic environment, its relations
to food and enemies
mixes requirements with role…
same word, multiple and very-different meanings
Rome News-Tribune, 1952
Outline• Grinnell and early points of light• Early initiatives
– Australia– Mexico– CLIMEX– GAP
• First complex algorithms– Improving on BIOCLIM– GARP– Statistical school
• End of the beginning– Elith et al. 2006 – broad comparative testing– Phillips et al. 2006 – A Star is Born
What about Grinnell?????
Mexico: Arturo Gómez-Pompa
CLIMEX• Species’ ecological niche defined in terms of
response to environment vs and environments in which it can persist
• An interesting mixture of correlational and process-based characteristics
• Population and growth assessed weekly; survival and growth capacity integrated to annual values
• To persist at a site, the species needs to grow sufficiently during the favorable season to offset population losses during inclement season(s)
• The overall potential for persistence is modelled using the Ecoclimatic Index
Taking the Bad With the Good
Time of Year
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Growth Season Survival Season
1.0
-1.0
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Outline• Grinnell and early points of light• Early initiatives
– Australia– Mexico– CLIMEX– GAP
• First complex algorithms– Improving on BIOCLIM– GARP– Statistical school
• End of the beginning– Elith et al. 2006 – broad comparative testing– Phillips et al. 2006 – A Star is Born
Outline• Grinnell and early points of light• Early initiatives
– Australia– Mexico– CLIMEX– GAP
• First complex algorithms– Improving on BIOCLIM– GARP– Statistical school
• End of the beginning– Elith et al. 2006 – broad comparative testing– Phillips et al. 2006 – A Star is Born
Outline• Grinnell and early points of light• Early initiatives
– Australia– Mexico– CLIMEX– GAP
• First complex algorithms– Improving on BIOCLIM– GARP– Statistical school
• End of the beginning– Elith et al. 2006 – broad comparative testing– Phillips et al. 2006 – A Star is Born
Major Steps Forward in Early Years
• Niche, not distribution …
• Suitability, not presence …
• Importance of calibration area
• Simplicity versus complexity of models
Future Lessons
• Key nature of model evaluation in creating the image of “good” versus “bad” models
• “Garbage in, garbage out” in modeling and consequent emphasis on data quality
• Individual algorithms less important; correct ecological and biogeographic framework more important
• Crucial need for effective ecological and biogeographic frameworks as a basis for models
SEND QUESTIONS TO [email protected]
Next Seminar: Donald Hobern
https://plus.google.com/events/choq0i9mdbesr2s696u8hkl9erk
