EVALUATING PARADIGMS Shifts for Humanity through Systematic Game-Changers

Problem 1. The Issue of the Mind

A CONFERENCE ON STRATEGY

• Good strategy is a successful plan

• Quality of plan depends on quality of planners

• Plan is a product of psychology of the strategists

• Unfortunately we all have fallible minds

Your mind is…..

Cognitive Biases

Blindspots

Assumptions

Emotions

Irrationalities

But it’s not your fault……

You were affected by education

You’ve been affected by culture

You’ve been affected by consumerism You’ve been affected by other people

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Belief Systems underlie all our problems

Not just in our ‘strategizing’, but also in our ability to ‘convince’

Transhumanism brings up unpleasant truths…

..whilst 99.9% of the world prefers comforting lies

DEATH IS INTRINSICALLY BAD

“Man is literally split in two: he has an awareness of his own splendid uniqueness in that he sticks out of nature with a

towering majesty, and yet he goes back into the ground a few feet in order blindly and dumbly to rot and disappear forever.”

Ernest Becker

MINDS CAN MOVE MARKETS AND MARKETS CAN MOVE MINDS

By understanding minds/collective mindsets, we learn how to move markets better (and vice versa)

1.1 A Case Study in Markets/Minds The Birth of Consumerism

Freud Bernays

CONSUMERISM FOR NECESSITY

CONSUMERISM FOR DESIRE

late 19th Century 1920s onwards

Edward Bernays understood the necessity of understanding the collective mindset

Minds move markets, markets move minds…

…an example of good ‘strategy’

Problem 2. The Issue of the Mind (again)

THERE’S ALL THIS MONEY

AND ALL THESE PROBLEMS…..

AGING/DEATH

POVERTY

WARS

DISEASES

THE PROBLEM ISN’T A LACK OF CAPITAL….

THE PROBLEM IS… WE HAVE A SEVERE LACK OF GOOD

THINKERS

IT DOESN’T MATTER HOW MUCH CAPITAL THERE IS !

- It only matters who is judging the allocation

Do I have $500,000 for this painting to help gangs in NY?

audience of inebriated, fallible minds

PHILANTHROPY

MARKETS MOVE MINDS*

*Intelligent arguments don’t scale

PLANS THAT DEPEND ON SCALING A RATIONAL, INTELLECTUAL ARGUMENT WILL LOSE.

Scientific breakthroughs will act as catalysts as to what society thinks is possible.

Paradigm shifts don’t come from hypotheses

When aging process is disrupted in one human, everything changes

Transhumanist goals are hard to actualize in the short-term life cycles of both politics and venture capital

options narrow liabilities increase

*Responsibility of laying the correct foundations

WE LIVE IN THE PRE-PARADIGM SHIFT ERA**

We need to look at problems from a first-principle perspective.

INDUSTRIES/PROBLEMS ARE COMPARABLE TO BROKEN WALLS

Most start-ups and investors act as polyfillers… ..when we actually need bricklayers

(rest on faulty old assumptions/corrupted)

- Nick Bostrom

“For the advancement of human knowledge, we should focus more on indirect contribution. A

“superficial” contribution that facilitates work across a wide range of domains can be worth much more than

a relatively “profound” contribution limited to one narrow field.”

!

SOLUTION !

HYPOTHESES !

QUESTION

much needed tools

most companies strike here

Check- are we even asking the right questions?

– Nick Bostrom

“ [sic] Imagine a tool was invented to help a researcher to improve by just 1%. The gain would

hardly be noticeable in a single individual. But if the 10 million scientists in the world all benefited from the

tool the inventor would increase the rate of scientific progress by roughly the same amount as adding

100,000 new scientists. Each year the invention would amount to an indirect contribution equal to 100,000

times what the average scientist contributes..”

!!

Phase 1- It exists only once and is the pre-paradigm phase, in which there is no consensus on any particular theory. This phase is characterized by several incompatible and incomplete theories. Eventually gravitate to a conceptual frameworks on appropriate choice of methods, terminology and

experiments. Create preliminary assumptions. !

Phase 2- Normal Science, begins, in which puzzles are solved within the context of the dominant paradigm. As long as there is consensus within the discipline, normal science continues. Over time, progress in normal science may reveal anomalies, facts that are difficult to explain within the context of

the existing paradigm. While usually these anomalies are resolved, in some cases they may accumulate to the point where normal science becomes difficult. Certain assumptions trend.

!Phase 3- This phase is a crisis. Crises are often resolved within the context of normal science. However, after significant efforts of normal science within

a paradigm fail, science may enter the next phase. Assumptions are flawed. !

Phase 4- Scientific revolution is the phase in which the underlying assumptions of the field are reexamined and a new paradigm is established. Test assumptions.

!Phase 5- Post-Revolution, the new paradigm's dominance is established and so scientists return to normal science, solving puzzles within the new

paradigm. Paradigm shift.

– said no-one in Silicon Valley ever.

“LET’S TAKE A PRO-ACTIVE FIRST-PRINCIPLE APPROACH TOWARDS CREATING SOLUTIONS

FOR HUMANITY’S PROBLEMS.”

PSYCHOLOGICAL TOOLS FOR DECISION-MAKING

1. DESIGN THINKING APPLIED TO PROBLEMS/GOALS

· Understand the problem: Get an initial understanding of the problem e.g Want to improve Healthcare/Need to understand constraints for biotech industry

!·Observe users/field: Observe the industry at hand, talk to those involved, observe physical spaces and

places. Take a hands-on approach and document the problems found !

· Interpret the results: Interpret the empirical findings, look for pinch points/ problems that if solved could work as industrial catalysts

!· Generate ideas (Ideate): Engage in cross-discipline brainstorming sessions to generate as many ideas as

possible (in other words, expand the solution space) e.g What ideas/tools existing or otherwise, would create a paradigm shift?

!· Identify Areas for Possible Collaboration: Prevent overlap, shorten roadmap

!· Prototype, experiment: Look for companies working in these areas (may not be original industry

space) !

· Test, implement, improve: Test these tools, implement them with industry, and refine the design (narrow down the solution space again; solution-driven phase). Through this, we can verify the market size.

!!

We need to work on broadening horizons to find those outlier ideas that become breakthroughs

Fundamentally important work is often disregarded at first

CONTRIBUTION VS

SOCIAL RECOGNITION

SHORT TERM- Test assumptions

in industries- Create companies- Really, REALLY think

about strategy (it’s like chess)

LONG TERM- Education**

- Lay foundations

**Disrupting education to create more outlier thinkers = hasten paradigm shift

= Like humans, we are individually both significant and insignificant

Pointilism The artistic

technique of painting with dots

But in the end..

THANK YOU