Social Media Potential in Forecasting Presidential Election Results in Poland 2011

General Online Research ConferenceGOR 11, March 14-16, 2011, Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf,

Germany

Pawel Kuczma, Institute of Journalism, University of Warsaw

Wlodzimierz Gogolek, Institute of Journalism, University of Warsaw

Social Media Potential in Forecasting Presidential Election Results in

Poland 2010

Contact: [email protected]

Social Media Potential in Forecasting Presidential Election Results in Poland 2010

Paweł Kuczma, Włodzimierz GogołekInstitute of JournalismUniversity of Warsaw

Graphic source: http://jonnewman12.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/sm-crystal-ball.png

„Markets collect and diffuse information”Hayek F., ’The use of knowledge in society”, American Economic Review, 1945;35 (4): 519–530/ Chen K.Y., Fine L.R., Huberman B.A.,’Predicting the Future’, Information Systems Frontiers 5:1, 47–61, 2003

„What consumers are searching for online can also predict their collective future behavior days or even weeks in advance.” Goel, S.; Hofman, J.M.; Lahaie, S.; Pennock, D.M.; Watts, D.J: Predicting consumer behavior with Web search, http://research.yahoo.com/pub/3359 [2010]/

Inspirations

Data Refining

Results

Data from Social Media & News Portals

Qualitative Analysis

Quantitative Analysis

The purpose of this study:

to identify factors allowing prediction of the outcome of the presidential electionin Poland in 2010 basing on Social Media websites in pre-election period.

The research question was:

Is it possible to predict the action (in this case casting a vote for a candidatein the presidential election) basing on content quantitative (number ofcontent related to the subject of the research) and qualitative (thecontexts in which they appear and their emotional values) analysis ofSocial Media?

Study Details - Methodology

Study Details - Methodology

Type of content analysed:

Social Media websites (such as social networking sites, forums, blogs and microblogs)

News portals (websites with content written by professionals) for comparative analysis

Time of the study: Analysed content was published in pre-election period in 2010

(between April 10th and July 5th)

The following indicators of the content were examined :

Quantitative assessment:

- Amount of the content about candidates,

- Trends / dynamics of changes in the amount of the content,;

Qualitative assessment:

- Contexts analysis (finding topic content),

- Sentiment analysis (distinction between positive and negative content).

Quantitative assessment

Qualitative potential of Social Media

2/3 of all references regarding presidential candidates in pre-election period was generated in Social Media

Portale Informacyjne

33%Media

społecznościowe67%

Social Media 67% News Portals 33%

Share of voice by different types of Social Media websites

Udział procentowy odniesień z poszczególnych rodzajów mediów

społecznościowych

Blip0,8%

Komentarze0,3%

Twitter0,3%

Fora21,8%

Blogi74,1%

Facebook2,7%

Most important sources were Blogs and Forums – 96% of content

Facebook was not very strong at that time (around 2 mil. users)

Forums 21,8%

Facebook 2,7%

Blip 0,8%

Comments 0,3%

Blogs 74,1%

Election results

First Round Second Round

Source: State Electoral Comission, gazeta.pl

Candidates’ visibility on the Internet, especially in Social Media

More content regarding Bronislaw Komorowski

than Jaroslaw Kaczynski in news portals

Portale informacyjne 10.04-4.07.2010

Bogusław Ziętek1%

Jarosław Kaczyński34%

Bronislaw Komorowski

36%

Kornel Morawiecki1%

Waldemar Pawlak7%

Andrzej Olechowski4%

Janusz Korwin-Mikke3%

Grzegorz Napieralski

9%

Andrzej Lepper2%

Marek Jurek3%

More content regarding Jaroslaw Kaczynski than Bronislaw Komorowski in Social Media

Portale informacyjne 10.04-4.07.2010

Bogusław Ziętek1%


Bronislaw Komorowski

36%

Kornel Morawiecki1%

Waldemar Pawlak7%



Grzegorz Napieralski

9%

Andrzej Lepper2%

Marek Jurek3%

Social Media 10.04-4.07.2010

Grzegorz Napieralski7%

Bronisław Komorowski32%


Andrzej Lepper2%

Kornel Morawiecki1% Boguslaw Zietek

1%Marek Jurek

3%Waldemar Pawlak5%



Janusz Korwin-Mikke unexpectedly strong in Social Media. 4th place in the amount of content and 4th place in election. This candidate was almost ignored by mainstrem news portals.

There was much more content regarding two candidates than all others in news portals …

0

500

1000

1500

2010

-04-

10

2010

-04-

17

2010

-04-

24

2010

-05-

01

2010

-05-

08

2010

-05-

15

2010

-05-

22

2010

-05-

29

2010

-06-

05

2010

-06-

12

2010

-06-

19

2010

-06-

26

2010

-07-

03

Andrzej Lepper Andrzej Olechowski Boguslaw Zietek Bronislaw Komorowski Grzegorz Napieralski

Janusz Korwin-Mikke Jaroslaw Kaczynski Kornel Morawiecki Marek Jurek Waldemar Pawlak

Election silence

# of pieces of content

…as well as in Social Media

Social Media All times

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2010

-04-

10

2010

-04-

17

2010

-04-

24

2010

-05-

01

2010

-05-

08

2010

-05-

15

2010

-05-

22

2010

-05-

29

2010

-06-

05

2010

-06-

12

2010

-06-

19

2010

-06-

26

2010

-07-

03

Andrzej Lepper Andrzej Olechowski Boguslaw Zietek Bronislaw Komorowski Grzegorz Napieralski

Janusz Korwin-Mikke Jaroslaw Kaczynski Kornel Morawiecki Marek Jurek Waldemar Pawlak

Content regarding these two candidates prevailed: Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Bronislaw Komorowski


The closer to the election day, the more content appeared

The greatest intensity of content concerning presidential candidates could be observed in June

1 243

446

1 544

658

2 942

1 587

2 627

1 473

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Kwiecień Maj Czerwiec Lipiec

Media społecznościowe PortaleSocial Media News Portals


Qualitative assessment

News PortalsUdział odniesień tematycznie 10.04-4.07.2010 - portale informacyjne

Wybory 22,41%

Partie 21,59%

Polityka wewnętrzna 15,31%

Prezydent 15,27%

Katastrofa 4,29%

Gospodarka 4,98%

Media 8,79%

Polityka zagraniczna 3,53%

Powódź 2,13%

Rosja 1,71%Smolensk Crash 4,29%

Foreign Policy 3,53%

Flood 2,12%

Russia 1,71%

Election 22,41%

Home Affairs 15,32%

Economy 4,98%

President 15,27%

Media 8,79%

Political Parties 21,59%

Social MediaLiczba odniesień (%) w mediach społecznościowych 10.04-4.07.2010

Media10,88%

Polityka zagraniczna

5,39%

Wybory18,30%

Prezydent13,73%

Gospodarka5,20%

Rosja3,45%

Powódź2,23% Partie

19,08%

Katastrofa6,11%

Polityka wewnętrzna

15,63%

Smolensk Crash 6,11%

Foreign Policy 5,39%

Flood 2,23%Russia 3,45%

Election 18,30%

Political Parties 19,08%

Home Affairs 15,63%

Economy 5,20%

President 13,73%

Media 10,88%

The intensity of the content in pre-election period

In pre-election period in Social Media the biggest number of pieces of content concerned topics associated with political events at that time.Smolensk plane crash and the flood in Poland did not eclipse pre-election period. Foreign policy was hardly visible.

Liczba odniesień w mediach społecznościowych tematycznie [podział tygodniowy] 10.04-4.07.2010

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Tygodnie

Liczba odniesień

Gospodarka Katastrofa MediaPartie Polityka wewnetrzna Polityka zagranicznaPowodz Prezydent RosjaWybory


Social Media vs. News Portals: share of voice per candidate

Udział treści dotyczących kandydatów w podziale na źródło [%]

68% 62% 56% 65% 61%78% 71% 65% 70% 60%

32% 38% 44% 35% 39%22% 29% 35% 30% 40%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Andrz

ej L

eppe

r

Andrz

ej O

lech

owsk

i

Bogus

law Z

iete

k

Bronislaw

Kom

orow

ski

Grz

egor

z Nap

iera

lski

Janu

sz K

orwin

-Mikk

e

Jaro

slaw

Kac

zyns

ki

Korne

l Mor

awie

cki

Mar

ek J

urek

Wal

dem

ar P

awla

k

Media społecznościowe Portale informacyjne

• Janusz Korwin-Mikke had the biggest share of content in Social Media sources• Waldemar Pawlak (deputy prime minister) had very low share of content in Social Media

Social Media News Portals

Sentiment analysis in Social Media (in numbers) Wydźwięk treści wiodących kandydatów w mediach społecznościowych 5.05-4.07

11 518

14 753

1 015835

2 245

1 730

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

Bronisław Komorowski Jarosław Kaczyński Kandydaci

Liczba odniesień

Negative Neutral Positive


Candidates

Data gathered: 5.05-4.07.2010

Wydźwięk treści wiodących kandydatów w mediach społecznościowych 5.05-4.07

5,93% 5,63%

81,79% 81,90%

12,46%12,28%

0%

10%20%

30%

40%50%

60%

70%

80%90%

100%

Bronisław Komorowski Jarosław Kaczyński Kandydaci

Liczba odniesień (%)

negatywny neutralny pozytywny

Sentiment analysis in Social Media (%)

Candidates

Share of content

Negative Neutral Positive


0

50

100

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350

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450

500

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Tydzień

Liczba odniesień

Jarosław Kaczyński Bronisław Komorowski

Positive content

Wydźwięk pozytywny w portalach informacyjnych [podział tygodniowy]

0

200

400

600

800

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Tydzień

Liczba odniesień


Social Media

News Portals



Weeks

Weeks


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Tydzień

Liczbaodniesień


Wydźwięk negatywny w portalach informacyjnych [podział tygodniowy]

0

50

100

150

200

250

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Tygodnie

Liczba odniesień


Negative content

Social Media

News Portals

Weeks

Weeks




Correlation between candidates and campaign topicson Blogs

Source: Attentio.com, http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=US&v=v0k0DWbddX8

Research Results

• Social Media is an extremely valuable source of information which reflects public opinion - including those relating to social and political phenomena, what is confirmed by this study.

• Although the hypothesis concerning the possibility of predicting election results was not definitely proven - study helped to provide the names of candidates who qualified for the second round of the election.

• Moreover, it shows the importance of certain Web 2.0 forms in terms of providing information and their competitiveness against the traditional Internet resources.

Next Steps

This research is the first step towards creating a method supporting the diagnosis of the condition and dynamics of changes of candidates/parties /ideas preferences. Therefore it can be used to influence democratic processes with the use of Social Media.

Thank youDanke Schön

Paweł Kuczma, Włodzimierz Gogoł[email protected]