Chasing Predictability

Chasing Predictability

“In fiction: we find the predictable boring. In real life: we find the unpredictable terrifying.” Mokokoma Mokhonoana, South African author

Chasing Predictability 1

Frank Saucier, Executive and Agile [email protected]

© FreeStanding Agility 2012-2014

Team Time

Organize yourselves into teamsof 4-5 people and share thefollowing info with your team:

1.Your name.

2.Why you decided to attend tonight.

3.Your definition of the word predictable.


Hello


Working Definitions

Predictable (adj): Behaving in a way that is expected, especially on the basis of previous or known behavior.

System (n): A group of interconnected items.

Predictable System (n): A group of interconnected items that behave in a way that is expected, especially on the basis of previous or known behavior.



One of My Coaching Goals

To help teams take ownership for becoming a high functioning, self organizing, collaborative, and predictable system.



Simple System Model


Input OutputSystem


Simple Team as System Model


Input OutputTeam


Examples of Simple Systems


To Do DoneDoing

ProductBacklog

SprintBacklog

SprintPlanning

Sprint Event

Simple Kanban


Scrum as String of Simple Systems


Sprint Planning

SprintReview RetrospectiveDaily Daily…


Working Definition

Predictability Lens (n): Perspective used to consider or examine the relationship that something has to the predictability of a system.



Predictability Matrix


Input

System

P

P U

U

P U

P U

As a team, completethe predictability matrix.

P = PredictableU = Unpredictable


Energy Loss

While a highly predictable team may be able to accommodate for some unpredictable work, it will expend significant energy to do so.


Input

System

P

P U

U

P U

P U


Where to Chase Predictability


Input OutputSystem

Step 1: Work to improvethe predictabilityof the system.

Step 2: Work to improvethe predictability

of the inputs.


Said Differently

If you want to increase the predictability of the outputs of a team, you need to:

1.Help the team become more predictable.

2.Help the work going to the team become more predictable.



Question Time

As a team, answer the followingquestion:

What are 3 ways practices likeScrum, Kanban, and Lean helpteams become more predictable?



Where Teams Struggle With PredictabilityScrum:•Grooming (where, when, how much)•Collaboration (silo behaviors)•Acceptance Criteria (level of detail)

•Kanban:•Work in Process Limits (not used)•Policies (missing or not visible)•Collaboration (silos as lanes)



How Beliefs Impact Predictability

In order for Agile practices (behaviors) to produce more predictable results, a team needs to undergo a shift in their mindset (beliefs).


Beliefs Behavior

Harder Easier

Expectations

Experiences


How Visibility Impacts Predictability

When team’s make their work visible:

1.They can see what’s coming and prepare for it.

2.They can see what’s being worked on and influence it.

3.They can see what the system wants to reveal.

When we can prepare for and influence our work, we are more predictable.



Bad Tools

These are not good tools for chasing predictability.



Better Approaches

These are better tools for chasing predictability.


ConductExperiments

Gather Data

ExamineBehaviors


Team Scenario

Your on a Scrum team and when your Sprint ended the following information was revealed.

As a team, discuss how the information might be related to predictability and share ideas on approaches you could use to chase predictability.


PlannedWork

CompletedWork


Recap, TakeAways,and To Dos



Upcoming Classes



FreeStanding Agility 1-Day Classes

Lean and Kanban Fundamentals - 9/17

Agile and Scrum Fundamentals - 9/23

Product Owner Skills - 9/24

Become an Awesome Scrum Master - 10/29

Visit FreeStandingAgility.com for more info.


Software

Chasing Predictability