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CONFIDENTIAL | 1
CONFIDENTIAL | 2
Featured Project:
The Wroclaw West Bypass, Poland
Trusted by the world’s largest projects
Pivots for real: how we've hacked up some data to know we've hit the mark
Mark Smith @markjdsmith
CONFIDENTIAL | 3
Obligatory Who am I
CONFIDENTIAL | 4
BidContender
• Online Tender Management platform that has connected builders and subbies on $48 billion in projects this year
CONFIDENTIAL | 5
Stories -> Hypothesis
120 Points = done
http://www.agileproductdesign.com/
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How to know what’s of value?
• Experiments, validated learning, testing things
Read it, loved it, but… when it came to it. How?
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Torres format hypothesis
http://www.producttalk.org/2014/11/the-5-components-of-a-good-hypothesis/
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Hypothesis Wall
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Data Measures Outcomes
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Share your data using online apps, not IT, and not Excel
GeckoboardDataHero
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Then build until the number moves…
4 Weeks
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or doesn’t.
2 weeks
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Data can be sourced from anything…
• Don’t feel you need to build amazing infrastructure to get it
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Fake it `til you make it.
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TV’s are essential
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The motivation is palpable
CONFIDENTIAL | 19
The journey from spec to outcome
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An exampleHypothesis
2 X Transactions Fe
atu
res
Ou
tco
mes
$
Say, 20/ month 40/ month & growing
Many iterations of
price, duration
offer, app, marcomms
CONFIDENTIAL | 21Waterfront City, Australia | US $788M Value
Goals drive hypotheses
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Goal Hypothesis* Measure
* Many of these, in a hierarchy
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Discover the drivers for your goals (Impact Mapping)
The Goal
Who needs to change
Ways we can drive change
Down here –you’re just guessing
(hypothesis!)
http://www.impactmapping.org/
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The ‘guesses’ down the tree can be stated as hypothesis
.
We believe that if we implement semi automated invites we will see the number of invited friends increasex% within 1 month
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Goals are the outcome at the end of a funnel
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
% that get to this step is the
goal
100 users
50 users
10 users (10%)
CONFIDENTIAL | 26
Funnel maps steps through a product workflow
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
CONFIDENTIAL | 27
We took a flow from our app and created hypothesis for change
STEPSRegistered
Profile Updated
Subscribed
Subbie connected to builder
Labelled by builder
Invited to quote
quoted
CONFIDENTIAL | 28
Hypothesis for changes to a step
STEPSRegistered
Profile Updated
Subscribed
Subbie connected to builder
Labelled by builder
Invited to quote
quoted
Adding a list of ‘builders in their state’ will increase
connections to builders for subbies by 50% within 1 month of introduction
Hypothesis
CONFIDENTIAL | 29
Hypothesis for changes to a step
STEPSRegistered
Profile Updated
Subscribed
Subbie connected to builder
Labelled by builder
Invited to quote
quoted
Adding a list of ‘builders in their state’ will increase
connections to builders for subbies by 50% within 1 month of introduction
Hypothesis
Search filter for builders in Network directory
Send URL to builders list in email
Static list (A-Z) of builders
Options to solve
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Inference Tree
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Inference Tree
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Increasing Activation to 90% will increase retention by 20% for pro
subscribers within a quarter
Ensuring Subbies are being added to builders networks will increase
invitations to quote by 30% for subbies within 1 month of introduction
Adding a list of builders in their state will increase connections to builders for subbies by 50% within
1 month of introduction
If this holds
Then this may hold
And this will hold
(invitations create activation)
CONFIDENTIAL | 33
And then build it…
Adding a list of builders in their state will increase connections to builders for subbies by 50% within
1 month of introduction
As a subbie I want to see a list of
contractors in my state so that I can connect to them
As a builder I want an indication that subbies are trying to connect with me
so that I will go and complete the connection
As a product manager I want to know how many
subbies use the ‘find contractor feature’ so I can
measure the outcome
Etc…
CONFIDENTIAL | 34
There’s the measure:
CONFIDENTIAL | 35
Indira Gandhi International Airport, Terminal 3, India | US $2B Value
Data informs hypotheses.
Passing Hypotheses deliver your goals.
Failing Hypotheses don’t.
Find out which is which!
CONFIDENTIAL | 36
Further Reading
http://www.businessmodelgeneration.com/book
http://practicetrumpstheory.com/http://www.amazon.com/Value-Proposition-Design-Customers-Strategyzer/dp/1118968050
http://shop.oreilly.com/product/0636920033851.do
CONFIDENTIAL | 37
The Center to Grand Forks (CGF) Project, U.S.A. | US $350M Value
We’re Hiring!
http://Aconex.com/careers
CONFIDENTIAL | 38Seattle Tunnel State Route 99, U.S.A | US $1.4B Value
Thank You
CONFIDENTIAL | 39
Preparation (for 2nd Session – if you’re coming along!)
• Bring your laptop (or use one of the computers in the lab)
• Ensure you know your Google Analytics credentials.
• Have a google apps account so you can use google sheets
• Bring a list of 5 epics from your current backlog
CONFIDENTIAL | 40
CONFIDENTIAL | 41Dubai International Airport, U.A.E | US $4.5B Value
Session 2: Using Geckoboard and
DataHero to measure your hypothesis
CONFIDENTIAL | 42Yas Island, U.A.E. | US $40B Value
How do I turn my backlog of stories into hypotheses?
CONFIDENTIAL | 43
Some techniques
• Extract the assumptions/intention from the story
• As a <who>
• I want to <the change>
• So that <the measure>
As a player I want to have semi automated invites sent So that my list of friends increases
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But Why?• The 5 why’s exercise on a stories ass:
– Q: Why do I want to get semi automated invites?
– A: so I increase the list of my friends
– Q: why do you want to increase the list of my friends?
– A: so that we get more players
– Q: Why do I want more players?
– A: so that we get to 1M players
– Q: why 1M players
– A: Cos then I get a Ferrari….
As a player I want to have semi automated invites sent So that my list of friends increases
CONFIDENTIAL | 45
Check the (HIPPO’s) bullshit
Bullshit! Will semi automated REALLY drive more friends?
• The 5 why’s exercise on a stories ass:
– Q: Why do I want to get semi automated invites?
– A: so I increase the list of my friends
– Q: why do you want to increase the list of my friends?
– A: so that we get more players
– Q: Why do I want more players?
– A: so that we get to 1M players
– Q: why 1M players
– A: Cos then I get a Ferrari….
Bullshit! Will more friends in the list really
get more players?
The implied hierarchy of the 5 Why’s and the bullshit detector drives a natural inference tree
CONFIDENTIAL | 46
Let’s try it…. Volunteer?
• Let’s take someone’s backlog and have a go at converting it to an inference tree:
– Volunteer – bring out your top 5 cards
– Let’s do it together.
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Measures are easy in geckoboard
• Pick any piece of data you need for your inference tree
• Sign in to Geckoboard.
• Create a dashboard
• Put the data there.
CONFIDENTIAL | 48Dubai International Airport, U.A.E | US $4.5B Value
Demo: Geckoboard
CONFIDENTIAL | 49Dubai International Airport, U.A.E | US $4.5B Value
Demo: DataHero
CONFIDENTIAL | 50Dubai International Airport, U.A.E | US $4.5B Value
OK – your turn
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Get going!
Your turn – in groups of 4:
– Take your backlog, and find the real goal
– Find the assumptions
– Write down the hypothesis as a tree of inference
– Work out the data you need
– Connect it to your geckoboard
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Objections to Dashboards
• Data Objections:
– Don’t have access. (you don’t have permissions to that data)
– Can’t get that yet (integration problem)
– It’s in an email.
• Answer:
– Google Sheets.
• IT objection
– We’re not paying till you do a business case.
– OFFS – buy it on your credit card and then show the improvement, then get the corporate card on it…..
• Priority Objection
– We don’t have time to build measures, we need to build feature X
• (if nobody uses it, if it doesn’t convert, what’s the point!)
• A good product manager knows to kill features as well as make them.
CONFIDENTIAL | 53Seattle Tunnel State Route 99, U.S.A | US $1.4B Value
Visualisation
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Static Numbers tell us NOTHING!That’s nice. Are
we better or worse than last
month/ pre change?
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Stacked time series is better
Oh, up and to the right….
But why did it slow?
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Sparklines show some history – puts the number in context!
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Set a goal – so motivating
This goal is probably too far! Just to 5 would be great right
now!
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The % change – when you want to see increments
CONFIDENTIAL | 59Seattle Tunnel State Route 99, U.S.A | US $1.4B Value
Never forget you are telling a story
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Pro Activation Funnel has improved from our work….
• We’ve moved from 25% (28-May-2015) to 41% (3-Jun-2015) to 47% (17-Jun-
2015)
• We did these changes:
– Introduced auto-labelling
– Pending network connections show as icon on network directory
28-may-2015 3-Jun-2015 17-Jun-2015
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And look at starter!
• This has been sitting
on 7% for some
weeks (haven’t
captured the
progression).
• Look at the numbers
on it now!
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Still a problem, but not enough to finish?
• Drop off on connection
requests
– so we’re doing
reminder email tonight.)
• Drop off on invite to
quoted
– Will cover this as part
of builder onboarding
(they want to get
coverage).
CONFIDENTIAL | 63Seattle Tunnel State Route 99, U.S.A | US $1.4B Value
Thanks – questions?
CONFIDENTIAL | 64
The Center to Grand Forks (CGF) Project, U.S.A. | US $350M Value
We’re Hiring!
http://Aconex.com/careers