A Better BCS: Reaching College Football's Potential

A Be%er BCS: Reaching College Football’s Poten9al

Lance Hedges December 6, 2011

DraD

How Cool Would This Be?

A Be%er BCS

#1 LSU

#2 Alabama

Na.onal Champion

TBD

TBD

TBD

TBD c

#4 Stanford

#7 Boise St

#3 Oklahoma St

#5 Oregon

Fiesta Bowl

Rose Bowl Orange Bowl

Sugar Bowl

CoJon Bowl

Round 1 Week 17 (Mid Dec) “BCS Qualifiers”

Round 2 Week 19 (New Years)

“BCS Semis”

Round 3 Week 21 (Mid Jan)

“BCS Finals”

“A” Bracket

“B” Bracket

A Be%er Bowl Championship Series

It’s doable. It’s an evolu9on of the current system. And it’s what fans want. Unfortunately, it’s not what (most of) the BCS wants.

At least not yet.

The BCS Misinterprets Its Mandate It’s not just #1 v. #2 anymore.

The BCS seeks to provide a na9onal championship game between the #1 & #2 teams and uses the

regular season to iden9fy such teams

Fans wants the post-‐season games to be a meaningful and progressive way to conclude the season, with exci9ng

matchups across the board.

The results: weak matchups, empty seats, poor TV ra9ngs and frustrated stakeholders

The Bowl Championship Series What is it? :

“The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) is a five-‐game showcase of college football. It is designed to ensure that the two top-‐rated teams in the country meet in the na9onal championship game, and to create exci9ng and compe99ve matchups among eight other highly regarded teams in four other bowl games.” BCSfootball.org

Who is it? “The BCS is managed by the commissioners of the 11 NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision ("FBS") (formerly Division I-‐A) conferences, the director of athle9cs at the University of Notre Dame, and representa9ves of the bowl organiza9ons. “-‐ BCSFootball.org

“Realis9cally, six men control college football: the commissioners of the Atlan9c Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-‐10, and Southeastern conferences….(They) guide the BCS to a place where their conferences receive automa9c bids to the BCS games with massive payouts. This is college football’s Cartel.“-‐ DeathToTheBCS.com

The BCS…A Contrary Opinion

While the truth is somewhere in the middle…

•  College football’s popularity is as consistently popular, on a rela9ve basis, as professional football, through its regular season, and even the off season.

•  Like football at all levels, it accomplishes this by providing enough 9me between games to savor/despair over the previous week’s win/loss, while gelng ready for the next game.

•  This is unique to football in American popular sports, as it provides a recurring cycle of elongated an9cipa9on and guaranteed payoff.

•  Fans reward this structure in the form of high a%endance and television ra9ngs. •  The NFL has reached the pinnacle of success with its Super Bowl achieve default na9onal holiday status.

That’s because the NFL builds upon its regular season with an even more compelling post-‐season, culmina9ng in Super Bowls that are the most watched television events in history.

•  As the college season progresses, and the an9cipa9on for an exci9ng conclusion builds up as more and more na9onal interest is placed on how the rankings will turn out, the powers that be, in the form of the BCS, pull a bait and switch on the fans.

•  The BCS does provide a Na9onal Championship game, but all the work in gelng there will already have taken place in the regular season.

•  For most fans, this leaves them without that sense of closure one naturally dedica9ng a season to a sport. •  The fans then vote with their feet and TVs. Tickets go unsold and sports fans fail to tune in.

…the bo%om line is the BCS is a perpetual missed opportunity.

A Reality Check This argument presumes the following points to be fact...

1.  The athle9c conferences, in the form of the BCS, control their own des9ny…

…Not individual teams. They are represented by their respec9ve conferences. And independents, like Notre Dame and the military academies have their own seats at the table.

…Not individual bowls. The bowls are willing partners in that endeavor, but in reality are useful, but expendable partners. They are responsible for raising their own money to host them, and must eat their losses when forced to host low-‐interest games.

2. It is essen9al to the BCS to retain that self-‐direc9on. They do not want to relinquish control to the NCAA.

3.  The logis9cal challenges of shiDing the bowls to the planorm for execu9ng a playoff system are real, but not insurmountable.

4.  Concerns about the welfare of student athletes being subjected to addi9onal games are not relevant. The Div II schools u9lize a far lengthier, in terms of game) playoff system and are governed directly by the NCAA. This is ul9mately about the business of college football.

5.  There is a lot of money involved. But not nearly as much as there could be.

Lots of Money, but not for everyone

•  Current program…$18M per Conference that automa9cally qualifies…$4.5M per team beyond the first that earns a spot.

•  This usually means 6 Automa9c Qualifying Conference (AQC) teams, plus 2 or 3 at large selec9ons.

•  This leaves only 1 or 2 slots for non-‐Automa9c Qualifying conferences (NQCs), who have agreed amongst themselves to 5 of them to split the proceeds any of them receive amongst themselves, which is the remaining balance.

•  Who are the AQCs?

Payout for 2010-‐2011 Bowl Season (in millions)

ACC-‐ $21.2M*

Big 10-‐ $27.2M88

Big East-‐ $21.2M*

Big XII-‐ $21.2M*

PAC 10-‐ $27.2M**

SEC-‐ $27.2M**

MAC-‐ $4.8M***

Conf USA-‐ $4.8M***

WAC-‐ $4.85M***

Mt West-‐ $4.8M***

Sun Belt-‐ $4.8M***

* 1 Team Automa9cally Qualified (AQ) ** 2 Teams Qualified *** Per mutual agreement, all Non AQ Conferences split appearance revenues amongst themselves

Are there any Non AQCs that historically outperform the AQCs and s9ll earn less? Absolutely.

WAC Outperformed the ACC and Big East in every category…

…and earned only 22% of the revenue the others each received.

Cycle of Dependency

• The TV network depends upon the fans to tune into the games.

• The Fans depend upon the Bowls to provide exci9ng conclusion to the season.

• The BCS depends upon its TV contract for its revenue.

• The Bowls depend upon the BCS structure to select teams.

Bowls BCS

TV Fans

This dependency leads to stress and frustra9on as the season ul9mately fails to reward anyone, with the excep9on of a very few, as well as it could.

Cycle of Frustra9on

• The TV network wants a system that will maximize poten9al audience share. The current system falls well short of its poten9al.

• The fans want a meaningful end to the season they invested so much 9me watching. The current system precludes this.

• Conferences split on how best to split revenue and assign bowl slots. Some are protec9ng their slice of the pie, others are challenging the equity of the system dividing the pie up.

• The Bowls want to host meaningful games. They know that is ul9mately the best way to sell 9ckets. The current system prohibits this.

Bowls BCS

TV Fans

What exactly is at stake, and what is the poten9al being missed

There is a lot of money at stake, but could there be more?

Current Contract

$500M

The current contract with ESPN is for $500 Million over three years. How much more would it be worth if it meant it’s poten9al? We can measure this by looking at how the BCS performs regarding its TAW numbers and PACE curve

Total Audience Weight (TAW) Scores

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

BCS (Current) BCS (Poten9al) NFL (NFC)

TAW compiles the individual ra9ngs for an event into a single score, providing a way to compare rela9ve popularity and total viewership. The score directly relates to how much a network will pay for the rights to televise the event.

How is that Poten9al calculated? By reviewing its PACE performance.

PACE Curve

How steep the curve rises (increases in popularity) is directly connected to the perceived quality of the matchup and the level of tradi9on amongst the audience to follow the event, year aDer year.

Progressive An9cipa9on and Collec9ve Excitement (PACE): The phenomenon in a televised sports whereby its popularity grows well beyond its regular season base as it approaches its championship conclusion, building momentum round aDer round

A sport’s PACE poten9al can be reviewed when comparing it to a constant baseline.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Regular Season

Regular Season

Regular Season

Playoff Championship

BCS (Current)

BCS (Poten9al)

NFL (NFC)

An event’s PACE poten9al can be iden9fied via its rela9ve comparison to another event similar in scope and intent, so long as the baselines (applicable regular seasons ra9ngs) remain propor9onate over the same extended period of 9me.

BCS PACE Curve

BCS is not maximizing its poten9al. How much does this mean in terms of lost opportunity revenue?

Note: The size and scope of the Super Bowl do not make for an appropriate comparison.

Money on the table…

Poten9al contract

$750M

Current Contract

$500M

…but what kind of system can be put in place to take advantage of it?

A New Way of Doing Things is Needed

If the BCS wanted to convert to a system that makes the most of the opportunity presented them, they must revise their system to do two things…

1.  Ensure the best match-ups possible are not interfered with by special rules favoring certain conferences to ensure their largest possible share of revenue (ex.WAC v. ACC and Big East)

2.  Implement a progressive winner moves on/ elimination regime that incorporates and maximizes the future potential of the bowls.

A Plausible Solu9on

#1

#1 Team

#2 Team

Na.onal Champ

TBD

TBD

TBD

TBD c

#4 Team

#5 Team

#3 Team

#6 Team

Fiesta Bowl

Orange Bowl Sugar Bowl

CoJon Bowl

Rose Bowl

Round 1 Week 17

“BCS Qualifiers”

Round 2 Week 19

“BCS Semis”

Round 3 Week 21

“BCS Finals”

“A” Bracket

“B” Bracket

Season End Week 15

“BCS Selec9on Party”

Team #1

Team #2

Team #3

Team #4

Team #5

Team #6

Proposed BCS College Football Post Season Tournament Format

If the BCS wanted to convert to a winner-moves-on system, as such.

A six team, two bracket, 3 tier playoff/tournament featuring the top six teams according to the BCS's own robust computer ranking system, with byes given to the numbers 1 & 2 teams directly into the second round.

Some Plan Details A six team, two bracket, 3 tier playoff/tournament featuring the top six teams according to the BCS's own robust computer ranking system, with byes given to the numbers 1 & 2 teams directly into the second round.

• It would take commence 2 weeks following the conclusion of the season with the first round taking place Mid December, the semis around the New Year, and the final 2 weeks later.

• The Bowls would continue hosting the championship in a rotating fashion.

• The Cotton Bowl would be incorporated as the 5th bowl in the rotation.

• The seeding of 3-6 into the varying brackets would be governed by certain rules, such as the "SEC" rule, which keeps two teams from the same conference from meeting until the final round, or the Hawaii rule which ensures the seeding of undefeated teams that win their Conference but who have not cracked the top 6 in ranking.

• Scrapping the Automatic bid regime. Currently the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, PAC-10 and SEC conference champions are all guaranteed spots in BCS games. This often leads to low ranking teams being slotted in place of undefeated teams from non-automatic bid conferences (i.e Boise State) missing the cut. Only two teams per conference max to

• An allocation of Television dollars based on a flat annual payment to each conference, $$ to each conference based on the amount of teams they have in the Top 25, and $$ for each team selected to compete in the post-season event.

Retro Alloca9on of 2010 Revenue per Proposal All $$ in Millions

Revenue

ACC-‐ $25M

Big 10-‐ $40M

Big East-‐ $10M

Big XII-‐ $30M

Pac 10-‐ $35M

SEC-‐ $40M

WAC-‐ $15M

Mt.West-‐ $5M

Conf USA-‐ $20M

MAC-‐ $5M

A much fairer distribu9on, based on performance, while s9ll growing the pie.

Retro Applica9on of Concept to 2006-‐2010 seasons (all $$ in Millions)

As the following slides show, this concept applied retroac9vely to past 5 seasons yields compelling matchups and exci9ng rounds of football. It should be easy to narrow the PACE gap in a few short years and begin maximizing its poten9al.

Rank School Record Conf Actual Bowl Score TV Ra9ngs

1 LSU 13-‐0 SEC BCS

2 Alabama 11-‐1 SEC BCS

3 Oklahoma St 11-‐1 Big 12 Fiesta

4 Stanford 11-‐1 PAC 12 Fiesta

5 Oregon 11-‐2 PAC 12 Rose

6 Arkansas 10-‐2 SEC

7 Boise St 11-‐1 Mt West

8 Kansas St 10-‐2 Big 12

9 South Carolina 10-‐2 SEC

10 Wisconsin 11-‐2 Big 10 Rose

11 Virginia Tech 11-‐2 ACC Sugar

13 Michigan 10-‐2 Big 10 Sugar

15 Clemson 9-‐3 ACC Orange

23 West Virginia 10-‐3 Big East Orange

2011-‐2012 BCS Format Actual & Proposed

#1 LSU

#2 Alabama

TBD

TBD

TBD

TBD

TBD c

#4 Stanford

#7 Boise St

#3 Oklahoma St

#5 Oregon

Fiesta Bowl

Rose Bowl Orange Bowl

Sugar Bowl

CoJon Bowl

Round 1 Week 17


Round 2 Week 19

“BCS Semis”

Round 3 Week 21

“BCS Finals”

“A” Bracket

“B” Bracket

•  Based on Projected Results ** Based on Actual Bowl Match Ups


1 Auburn 13-‐0 SEC BCS 22 15.3

2 Oregon 12-‐0 Pac 10 BCS 19 15.3

3 TCU 12-‐0 Mt West Rose 21 11.7

4 Stanford 11-‐1 Pac 10 Orange 40 7.1

5 Wisconsin 11-‐1 Big 10 Rose 19 11.7

6 Ohio St 11-‐2 Big 10 Sugar 31 8.4

7 Oklahoma 11-‐2 Big 12 Fiesta 48 6.7

8 Arkansas 10-‐2 SEC Sugar 26 8.4

9 Michigan St 11-‐1 Big 10

10 Boise St 11-‐1 WAC

13 Virginia Tech 11-‐2 ACC Orange 12 7.1

26 Uconn 8-‐4 Big East Fiesta 20 6.7


#1 Auburn

#2 Oregon

#1 Auburn

#4 Stanford**

#3 TCU*

#1 Auburn

#2 Oregon c

#4 Stanford

#5 Wisconsin

#3 TCU

#6 Ohio St

Orange Bowl

CoJon Bowl Sugar Bowl

Rose Bowl

Fiesta Bowl

Round 1 Week 17


Round 2 Week 19

“BCS Semis”

Round 3 Week 21

“BCS Finals”

“A” Bracket

“B” Bracket



1 Alabama 13-0 SEC BCS 37 17.17

2 Texas 13-0 Big 12 BCS 21 17.17

3 TCU 12-0 Mt West Fiesta 10 8.23

4 Cincinatti 12-0 Big East Sugar 24 8.5

5 Florida 12-1 SEC Sugar 57 8.5

6 Boise St 13-0 WAC Fiesta 17 8.23

7 Oregon 10-2 Pac 10 Rose 17 13.18

8 Ohio St 10-2 Big 10 Rose 26 13.18

9 Georgia Tech 11-2 ACC Orange 14 6.8

10 Iowa 10-2 Big 10 Orange 24 6.8

2009-‐2010 BCS FormatActual & Proposed

#1 Alabama

#2 Texas

TBD

#6 BoiseSt**

#5 Florida**

#1 Alabama*

#5 Florida* c

#3 TCU

#6 Boise St

#4 CincinaT

#5 Florida

CoJon Bowl

Fiesta Bowl Sugar Bowl

Orange Bowl

Rose Bowl

Round 1 Week 17


Round 2 Week 19

“BCS Semis”

Round 3 Week 21

“BCS Finals”

“A” Bracket

“B” Bracket



1 Oklahoma 12-1 Big 12 BCS 14 15.8

2 Florida 12-1 SEC BCS 24 15.8

3 Texas 11-1 Big 12 Fiesta 24 10.4

4 Alabama 12-1 SEC Sugar 17 7.8

5 USC 11-1 Pac 10 Rose 38 11.7

6 Utah 12-0 WAC Sugar 31 7.8

7 Texas Tech 11-1 Big 12

8 Penn St 11-1 Big 10 Rose 24 11.7

9 Boise St 12-0 WAC

10 Ohio St 10-2 Big 10 Fiesta 21 10.4

12 Cincinatti 10-2 Big East Orange 17 5.4

19 Virgina Tech 9-4 ACC Orange 20 5.4


#1 Oklahoma

#2 Florida

TBD

#6 Utah**

#5 USC*

#1 Oklahoma*

#2 Florida* c

#4 Alabama

#6 Utah

#4 Texas

#5 USC

CoJon Bowl

Rose Bowl Fiesta Bowl

Sugar Bowl

Orange Bowl

Round 1 Week 17


Round 2 Week 19

“BCS Semis”

Round 3 Week 21

“BCS Finals”

“A” Bracket

“B” Bracket



1 Ohio St 11-1 Big 10 BCS 24 17.4

2 LSU 11-2 SEC BCS 38 17.4

3 Virgina Tech 11-2 ACC Orange 21 7.4

4 Oklahoma 11-2 Big 12 Fiesta 28 7.7

5 Georgia 10-2 SEC Sugar 41 7

6 Missouri 11-2 Big 12

7 USC 10-2 Pac 10 Rose 49 11.1

8 Kansas 11-1 Big 12 Orange 24 7.4

9 West Virgina 10-2 Big East Fiesta 48 7.7

10 Hawaii 12-0 WAC Sugar 10 7


#1 Ohio St

#2 LSU

TBD

#5 Georgia**

#5 Oklahoma*

#5 Georgia*

#2 LSU* c

#5 Georgia

#10 Hawaii

#3 VA Tech

#4 Oklahoma

CoJon Bowl

Orange Bowl Rose Bowl

Fiesta Bowl

Sugar Bowl

Round 1 Week 17


Round 2 Week 19

“BCS Semis”

Round 3 Week 21

“BCS Finals”

“A” Bracket

“B” Bracket



1 Ohio St 12-0 Big 10 BCS 14 17.4

2 Florida 12-1 SEC BCS 41 17.4

3 Michigan 11-1 Big 10 Rose 18 13.84

4 USC 10-2 Pac 10 Rose 32 13.84

5 LSU 10-2 SEC Sugar 41 9.29

6 Louisville 11-1 Big East Orange 24 6.98

7 Boise St 12-0 WAC Fiesta 43 8.4

8 Auburn 10-2 SEC

9 Notre Dame 10-2 Ind Sugar 14 9.29

10 Wisconsin 11-1 Big 10

11 Oklahoma 11-2 Big 12 Fiesta 42 8.4

14 Wake Forrest (14) 11-2 ACC Orange 13 6.98


#1 Ohio St

#2 Florida

TBD

#6 LSU*

#4 USC**

#5 LSU*

#2 Florida* c

#5 LSU

#6 Louisville

#3 Michigan

#4 USC

Sugar Bowl

CoJon Bowl Orange Bowl

Rose Bowl

Fiesta Bowl

Round 1 Week 17


Round 2 Week 19

“BCS Semis”

Round 3 Week 21

“BCS Finals”

“A” Bracket

“B” Bracket


Sports

A Better BCS: Reaching College Football's Potential