1250 Basics

1250

1250 =

an interim target for methane levels, thus 1250 parts per billion methane

in the atmosphere.

This is a complement to the “350” idea, and thus the group 1250 is meant to form a complement to Bill McKibben’s 350 group, but focusing more on

near-term concerns.

Dr. Robert Watson, Chair of IPCC (1997-2002)

We need to get moving to cool the planet's temperature. Methane is the most effective place for us to start.

Robert Watson

Some differences between “1250” and “350”:

350ppm CO2 is not achievable, physically or politically, for the near-term.

1250ppb methane, with great effort, could be fully achieved in two decades.

Achieving 350ppm CO2 will demand altering much of our economy, and probably the engagement of major populations around the world.

Achieving 1250ppb methane demands no major change of world economy and does not depend on full engagement of world populations.

Further, 350 might never be achievable unless 1250 is reached first.

“1250 is the route to 350.”

Hansen: “There seems to be a dichotomy of possible futures: either achieve strong reductions of both CO2 and CH4 emissions or both gases are likely to increase substantially.”

“There seems to be a dichotomy of possible futures: either achieve strong reductions of both CO2 and CH4 emissions or both gases are likely to increase substantially.”

James Hansen, Director, NASA GISS:

Dr. Michael MacCracken,Chief Scientist for Climate Change programs, Climate Institute, Washington, DC

In working to limit warming over next few decades, other than geoengineering, sharply reducing emissions of short-lived species is the only way to reverse the ongoing increase in radiative forcing.

Michael MacCracken

Achieving 1250 will not - and cannot - be about methane cuts alone.

Important caveat:

Just as reaching a lower, stable level of CO2 might depend upon getting methane under control first, so, too, getting methane lower and under control

will demand achieving other things first.

Like what?

1250 might never be achievable unless we rapidly move to protect the arctic.

Source: University of Alaska - Fairbanks/INE, 2007

The arctic could emit quantities of methane (and CO2) that dwarf human emissions.

Thus, just as 1250 is the route to 350, protecting the arctic will be necessary to achieving 1250.

Methane

The greenhouse gas that looks both ways - towards opportunity and danger.

Thus, 1250 is a group focused on building policy around near-term climate needs.

It is centered around the concept that methane levels can become central to short-term climate,

especially at times of climate change.

....other than geoengineering, sharply reducing emissions of short-lived species is the only way.....

Again, MacCracken -

“short-lived species” or SLCPs =

mostly, methane and black carbon cuts

(with additional advantages from cuts to HFCs, VOCs, CO, etc.)

Last year, Hillary Clinton announced the forming of the CCAC, or Climate and Clean Air Coalition

Its goals were formed around the findings of the recent UNEP Assessment, and it has become a part of UNEP itself.

United Nations Environment Program, World Meteorological Organization, 2011

Does this create conflict with attempts to reduce CO2 emissions?

No!

“It would be better if all climate forcings were not packaged together and made interchangeable with CO2 in mitigation strategies.”

“Sources of different gases are usually independent and greater progress is likely from complementary focusedprogrammes.”

James Hansen

Thus, we quickly need to rethink climate:

we need both a near-term strategy

and a long-term strategy

how to keep radiative forcing as low as possible

how to avoid tipping points, especially in the arctic, from tipping

final stabilization points

revising global energy and reshaping economic systems

What we need are some leaders who will really lead, and some creative approaches that will entice those fearing moving forward.

Michael MacCracken

The UNEP Assessment, 2011: black carbon and ozone are its targets,

but since methane is a prime ozone precursor, methane reductions are central to the

assessment.


The climate mitigation impacts of the CH4 measures are the most certain because there is a high degree of confidence in the warming effects of this greenhouse gas.

Many CH4 measures are cost-effective and its recovery is, in many cases, economically profitable.


Then why isn’t this happening already?

Some reasons include:

• Lack of understanding of the outsized value of methane.

• Lack of widespread appreciation of the need for fast action to cool the planet quickly.

• Little understanding, even in the air regulatory community, much less the general public, of the value of methane reductions in reducing background global ozone.

Global Methane Initiative Concept :A Fast Action Plan for Methane Abatement, 2009

• Political resistance from both big CO2 emitters, and their critics.

• Big emitters want to preserve methane action as part of a cheap basket of offsets for CO2; and many climate advocates would like to keep methane action contained exclusively within Kyoto-type mechanisms, fearing also that a focus on near-term climate forcers will distract from the task of long-term CO2 reduction.

• Finally, lack of any alternative mechanism on the table to advance methane reductions at a speed commensurate to their short term value.

Global Methane Initiative Concept :A Fast Action Plan for Methane Abatement, 2009

UNEP Assessment: when all measures are fully implemented, warming during the 2030s relative to the present day is only half as much as if no measures had been implemented.

In contrast, even a fairly aggressive strategy to reduce CO2 emissions under the CO2 measures scenario does little to mitigate warming over the next 20–30 years.


Full implementation of the identified measures would reduce future global warming by 0.5˚C.


There is a substantial near-term climate benefit in accelerating implementation of the identified measures even if some of these might eventually be adopted owing to general air-quality and development concerns.



The identified measures could reduce warming in the Arctic by about 0.7˚C in 2040.

This could reduce warming in the Arctic in the next 30 years by about two-thirds compared to the projections of the Assessment’s reference scenario.....and substantially decrease the risk of global impacts from changes in this sensitive region, such as sea ice loss, which affects global albedo, and permafrost melt.


Timing and sequential ordering can become critical

in an emergency.

Are we in an emergency today?

Yes!

If so, what is the greatest danger today?

Methane!

Eastern Siberian Shelf methane emissions now equal all the rest of the oceans combined

N. Shakhova, I. Semiletov, 2010deep shallow

Photo courtesy Peter Essick/National Geographic Society

“drunken” trees, from melting permafrost

Siberian Lakes

Photo: NASA/Jesse Allen

1980

2007

Sea ice extent minimum 2012

Source: New Scientist, 2010

Changes in Sea Ice Volume: Daily Volumecompared with the 1979-2000 average

Summer Sea Ice Volume: PIOMAS estimates July- Sept

Greenland melting this summer

July 8, 2012 July 12, 2012

Could ice losses also be driving extreme weather events?

Intense downpours in Chicago

Scorching heat in Atlanta

Big snowstorm in Philadelphia

Intense cold in Europe

All show anomolous high amplitude patterns at 500 hPaheights that tend to move slowly

Western RussiaAugust 1 – 8, 2010

Moscow

Russia

Ukraine

Mongolia

Kazakhstan

Carbon Monoxide (ppbv)

0 240120

© 2010 Google, TeleAtlas, Europa TechnologiesNASA, NCAR, University of Toronto MOPITT

>50,000 deaths

and at the exact same time:

© 2010 Reuters/Ho New

PakistanAugust 2010

20,000,000 displaced

Campo de la Cruz, Colombia

© 2010 Reuters/Atlantico Govermment/Handout

Over two million people displaced - in an

event you never heard of until just now!

Economic costs to U.S. of drought plus superstorm Sandy and other

extreme weather eventsin 2012 alone:

Over $100 Billion

High latitude changes in 1000-500 hPa average thickness in 2000-2010 relative to 1970-1999 averages,

divided by season

Fall Winter

Spring Summer

Francis, Vavrus: Geophysical Research Letters, 2012

Note strong perturbation during season after ice is low

Fall Winter

Spring Summer

Francis, Vavrus: Geophysical Research Letters, 2012

Was superstorm Sandy’s path impacted by

sea-ice loss?

Further temperature increase

Icecaps start to melt

Tundra meltsIncreased methane

Increasing greenhouse gases

Dark ground and oceans absorb more heat

Reduced albedo

Our whole society could soon find itself deeply stressed.

Further temperature increase

Icecaps start to melt

Tundra meltsIncreased methane

Increasing greenhouse gases

Dark ground and oceans absorb more heat

Reduced albedo

1250 = Twice as aggressive methane cuts as GMI or CCAC

Arctic protection program

+

Technology

1250 Basics