Understanding the Demographic and Economic Forces that Shape Land Use and Development

Abby Thorne-LymanCongress for the New Urbanism

June 11, 2009

Making the Invisible Visible:

Presentation Overview

Why are demographic and economic forces important?

How to evaluate a local economy

Bringing transportation into the story

Lessons learned for comprehensive planning

Why Are Demographic and Economic Forces Important

The Economy (Jobs & Wealth)

Buildings, Infrastructure,

Public Services

Purview of the Comp Plan

Workers (and their families)

Population and Job Growth

Coming Demographic Shifts

U.S. Household Structure is Changing

In 2000, only 1/3 of total households had kids under 18

About 24 percent were traditional nuclear families

A “Minority Majority” Future

By 2023, majority of children will be non-WhiteBy 2042, majority of whole population will be

non-White

Households are Aging

By 2050: 19 million people over the age of 85, more than three times the number we have today

National Demand for TOD by Income, 2030

$75,000 and Greater21%

$20,000 - $34,999

19%$35,000 - $49,999

14%

$50,000 - $74,999

13%

Less Than $20,000

29%

Only 1/3 of demand is at the median income or

above

Growing Demand for TOD

Understanding and Supporting the Local Economy

Local Economic Activity Provides:

Quality of Life for Community Residents

(jobs/income, services, enrichment)

Tax Base for the Community (property taxes,

sales tax, etc.)

Metropolitan Competitiveness and Prosperity

(providing jobs, workers, or both to regional

economic “niches”)

Employment Areas are usually the least “understood” areas in a comp. plan

But, there is often considerable pressure to convert employment lands to other uses.

Standard Land Use Map

Employment areas should be defined by “function” and evaluated independently

Location, Location, Location!

Understand Your

Industries

Driving Industries – Sell goods and services beyond city

Household Serving Industries – Provides goods and services for residents (and other people in the city)

Business Serving Industries – Provides services to other businesses in the city

Monitor changing conditions when defining land use policies

Bringing Transportation into the Story

Source: San Mateo County

Location Matters!

When gas prices increase…

Transportation Costs as % Median HH Income(Center for Neighborhood Technology: http://htaindex.cnt.org)

$1.81 /gallon $4.47/gallon

Quality Transit has Origins and Destinations

Map

Current Worker Flow to Boyle Heights,

Downtown Current Worker Flow from BH

Plan Strategically for TOD

Four Lessons for Comprehensive Planning

1. Different opportunities for change influence the plan approach

Built Out Community Developing Community

Understand Your Opportunities for Change

2. Local Economies Are Not Just Local

Job CenterBedroom

Community

Workers in and out

Always Consider the Regional Context

3. Good Land Use Policy can support Economic Development

Use Real Estate Market Data and Projections to Test Land Use Assumptions

4. Plan for Diversity

This applies to every aspect of your community