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Climate
Mobility Lars Böcker Mar4n Dijst Jan Prillwitz
&
Contents
• Background • Methodology
• Climate change and mode choices
• Climate change and des4na4on choices
• Conclusions
• Loca4on of studies • Overemphasis on weather extremes
• Contradic4ng results • Lack of aFen4on to personal backgrounds • Lack of aFen4on to geographical contexts • Böcker, Dijst & Prillwitz (forthcoming) “Changing recurring clima4c condi4ons and travel behaviour: the role of personal backgrounds and geographical contexts”
Background
Methodology
• Selec4on of seasons within the last decade represen4ng current climate
• Selec4on of seasons within the last decade represen4ng the 2050 projected climate
• Analyzing mobility paFerns for different popula4on categories and geographical contexts
• Dutch Na4onal Travel Survey Randstad area
Methodology
Spring -‐Warmer -‐Slightly weFer
Summer -‐HoFer -‐Longer dry periods -‐Heavier rain showers
Autumn -‐Warmer
Winter -‐Milder -‐Overall weFer -‐Heavier precipita4on
Climate change and mode choices
winter spring summer autumn winter spring summer autumn
Current climate Future climate
Mode Shares (stacked)
100%
0%
Climate change and mode choices
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
>3000 addresses/km2 <700 addresses/km2
Increase/decrease in mode shares for 2050 compared to current
Address density
Climate change and mode choices
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
>3000 addresses/km2 <700 addresses/km2
Address density
Increase/decrease in mode shares for 2050 compared to current
Climate change and mode choices
€15000-€30000 -‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
<€15000 >€30000
Household income
Climate change and mode choices
€15000-€30000 -‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
<€15000 >€30000
Household income
Climate change and mode choices
30-64 years old 18-29 years old over 65 years old -‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
Age
Climate change and mode choices
30-64 years old 18-29 years old over 65 years old -‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
Age
Climate change and mode choices
men women
Gender
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
Climate change and mode choices
men women
Gender
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
-‐10,0
-‐5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
Climate change and des4na4ons
errands <30min
work/ study
social visit
shopping >30min
picking up persons
sports cultural & other
touring/ walking
-‐40
-‐30
-‐20
-‐10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
winter
spring
summer
autumn
Percentual changes in number of trips per person for different des4na4on ac4vi4es (for 2050 as compared to current)
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Conclusion • Insight into the rela4onship between (changing) recurring weather condi4ons and travel paFerns
• Importance of geographical contexts and personal backgrounds
• Applica4on of knowledge in planning support • Next: mul4variate analysis
• Next: Ac4vity diaries -‐situa4onal approach -‐subjec4ve interpreta4ons of weather -‐different residen4al environments
