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'Urban growth: Contemporary challenges‘

Anumita RoychowdhuryCentre for Science and Environment New Delhi, April 10, 2007

Unprecedented urban growth: A global challenge

1950-2006: The urban population of the world has increased from 739 million to 3.2 billion. By 2025 around 65 per cent of the world’s population is projected to live in cities. By 2010 more than 75 per cent of the world’s urban population will live in poorer countries (State of the World 2007).

More than 40 per cent of the world children are estimated to be living in polluted cities of developing world (WHO).

A billion more will be added over the next three decades in Asia – almost adding a whole new India. More than half of them will be living in cities

What about India?

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Huge numbers …. But sluggish trends

The classical view: Agrarian crisis accelerates urban growth – leads to exodus from villages. Exponential annual growth rate in urban population during 1940s, 50s and 70s …

But growth rate drops thereafter – from 3.8% in the 70s to 2.7% in 90s. Share of urban population increased slowly from 17.3%in 1951 to 27.78% in 2001.

Overall mobility of migrants stagnates. 2001: Share of total migrants in the country has increased slightly from 27% to 29% during the 90s but this is less than 31% in 1961.

The share of migrants in the total incremental urban population dropped from 21.7% in 80s to 21.0% in the 90s. This co-relates well with drop in the rate of urbanisation during the nineties.

The total urban population is still as big as 287.56 million which is almost equal to the total population of the United States.

The trend may accelerate. Urban population may double by 2021

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Problem of skewed growth

Top heavy growth: Class I are growing faster than the smaller cities – growth is not evenly distributed. Only large cities have integrated effectively with markets. Attracted more migrants.

Asymmetrical growth: Total towns have increased from 1827 in 1901 to 4368 in 2001. Million plus cities have increased from 24 in 1901 to 393 in 2001. Share of urban population in these cities have increased from 26% in 1901 to 69% in 2001. The remaining 30% are distributed in the remaining 3979 towns and cities.

Stagnation at the bottom: The transformation of rural settlement as urban centres is not so pronounced. Lower rung towns largely stagnating. Some have grown due to infrastructure investments and rural to urban migration.

Shadow growth: Top rung cities have grown due to in-migration and aerial expansion. Strong influence on suburbanisation.

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Concerns

Skewed growth leads to inequity, and serious social and environmental imbalances

Big cities have not been able to absorb labor and investments within the formal sector of economy leading to problem of slums and informal economy. 21% of urban population live in slums. Nearly 40-50 per cent of people live in slums of Mumbai.

About 25.7% of the urban population live below the poverty line. While in class I cities 12 per cent of the households are below poverty line, in medium towns it is 23% -- even higher than rural areas.

Urban planning has tried density control through physical planning but failed to check in-migration or address the issue of basic services.

Social and environmental impacts of these trends are severe as there is also high level of inequity in the provision of basic services in cities. Poor are pushed to periphery.

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The challenge of mega cities

If cities grow big its scale and density also make waste treatment, recycling facilities, and public transport more efficient. But they also exceed their ecological limits. But efficiency gains are limited in Indian cities due to poor urban governance.

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Growing pollution and toxification: new struggles in cities

• Cities in grip of toxic model of growth: Intensive use of energy and materials leading to huge amounts of waste -- pollution.

• Major health impacts – toxic air causes one death per hour, dirty water is the biggest killer of babies till date…

Poor and Polluted. Deadly combination.

Where will the future growth take us? It all depends on the choices we make

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How are we going to manage this growth?

The issue is not about growth but about distribution, equity and urban governance

Air pollution and mobility crisis: Cities are being built for a small group of car owners, disregarding the mobility needs of the majority of urban population. Pollution and congestion costs high.

Solid waste and hazardous waste: 120,000 tonnes of garbage everyday in Indian cities. But very limited disposal, re-use and recycling capacities. Waste to energy remains a non-starter. Colonisation of land for waste disposal is leading to conflicts.

Water and waste water: Per capita water supply ranges from 9 lpcd to 584 lpcd across urban India. Only 72 cities have partial sewerage facilities and 17 have some primary treatment facilities and …..

Energy crisis: Wide gap in demand and supply, wastage. One third of India living in cities consumes 87% of nation’s electricity. Remains energy inefficient. But heavily built cities like Tokyo and New York use less energy per capita than rural residents.

Land constraints: Urban sprawl and inefficiencies

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Air quality: an urban challengeMore than half of the cities monitored have recorded

critical levels of fine particulate matter (PM10)

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70

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10%

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SO2 NO2 PM10

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of c

ities

in p

er c

ent

Critical Pollution Level* (More than 90 microgramme per cubic metre)

High Pollution Level* (60 to 90 microgramme per cubic metre)

Moderate Pollution Level* (30 to 60 microgramme per cubic metre)

Low Pollution Level* (0 to 29 microgramme per cubic metre)

Air Quality Classification:

65% Asia

35% Rest of the world

The Gas Chamber: Poor people more The Gas Chamber: Poor people more vulnerable to air pollution related diseasesvulnerable to air pollution related diseases

WHO estimates 0.8 million deaths and 4.6 million lost life years every year globally. Two-third of this occurs in Asia.

Premature Deaths Due to Outdoor Air PollutionPremature Deaths Due to Outdoor Air Pollution

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Explosive numbers: Trend towards auto dependent cities

Transport infrastructure occupies significant part of the urban land

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Personal vehicles increasing phenomenally

Between 2001-02 and 2005-06, car sales increased by 73%, two wheelers by 68% in India

Private vehicles dominate the registered vehicle fleet

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1

1

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4

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90

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Years

Nu

mb

ers

in m

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Cars/jeeps Two-wheelers Other vehicles

Exponential increase in personal vehicles: Cars in Delhi record decennial growth rate of 92 per cent (1995-96-2005-06)

Delhi’s road network has increased three times between 1971 and 2001 but vehicles have increased 16 times. Mad scramble to increase road capacity, flyovers.

14Note: * one car is equal to one PCU, 1 bus = 2.5 PCU, 1 scooter = 0.75 PCU

Source: Anon 2003, Draft urban transport policy, Ministry of Urban Development, Delhi

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40

7.13

4.76

0.93

10.37

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0.37

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0.25

0.07

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Two-stroke two-wheeler

Four-strokefour-wheeler

Car withcatalytic

converter petrol

Diesel bus

Average number ofpassengers per vehicle

Pollution load ingramme/passenger km

Congestion effect inPCU* per passenger

Personal vehicles use more road space, pollute more, meet less travel demand

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Cars lead to most inequitous use of urban land

Cities are being built for urban minority

• Parking is one of the most wasteful uses of cars: Out of 8760 hours in a year the total steering time of an average car is 400 hours. For about 90 to 95 per cent of the time a car is parked.

• Insatiable demand for land: If demand for land for an average car is computed on the basis of the average size of the car and one parking space per car -- the total cars already uses up 3% of the city’s urbanised area; or 10.8% extra land available for urbanisation. The forest cover in Delhi is 11.5 %.

• Inequitous use of land: A car is allotted 23 sq m for parking. Under low cost housing scheme. The car owning minority using up more and more road space and urban space.

Land is limited. Where will cities find more land to park cars?

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Cars encourage urban sprawl

The “Gurgaon” cataclysm

Development and density controls also encourage move towards suburbs. Eg. Satellite towns around Delhi, Mumbai suburbs etc.

Uncontrolled suburbanisation: Gurgaon, 32 kilometer from Delhi: 1961: 37868 population. 2001: 1.66 million. Car dependent city -- unfettered growth despite severe water constraints. 70% of water demand met from ground water. Alarming drop in ground water level. No land for solid waste disposal.

Satellite townships have created 3.42 million daily trips -- of these 37 per cent of the trips are made from Delhi to NCR, 42 per cent from NCR to Delhi and the rest of the trips occur in NCR but outside Delhi – add to pollution and congestion.

Global cities are focussing on re-urbanisation

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How to assert importance of community, environmental and economic

responsibilities in cities?

2,90,431

30,521

2,725

5.69

2.39

0.44

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50000

100000

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200000

250000

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350000

Two wheeler Cars Bus0

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Total annual tax per vehicle Total tax per vehicle-km

Tax per vehicle-km

Annual tax

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100%

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Delh

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Hyde

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Bus Car, Taxi, two-wheelers Three-wheelers Rickshaw Cycle

Buses meet substantial travel demand in Delhi

Yet buses bear significantly higher tax burden in India. Tax correction can push a large number of two wheeler users to buses

Poor people spend higher share of income on travelling

Cities, cars and energy insecurityCities, cars and energy insecurity

Transport energy demand has grown at 1.2 times the GDP growth rate.

Transport sector is single largest user of oil and oil products – 30 per cent of total consumption.

Personal transport uses almost all of petrol. Road transport as a whole consumes more than 62 per cent of diesel.

ADB estimates; In India, consumption of fuels by vehicles in 2035 could be six times that of the 2005 level.

Urban car travel consumes nearly twice as energy on average as average urban bus travel; 3.7 times more than the typical light rail or tram; 6.6 times more than average electric urban electric train

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Are we losing advantage? Share of bigger cars increasing

Small and medium cars will remain dominant. But……Shift towards high end cars expected at a faster rate.

SUV market is expected to develop rapidly in future

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Strike at the very root….

Restrain personal vehicle usage.

Build public transport

International Energy Agency estimates 100 per cent difference in oil use in a future scenario dominated by high quality bus system as opposed to that dominated by personal vehicles in Delhi

ADB study projects that in Bangalore an increase in public transport share from 62 per cent to 80 per cent can save 21 per cent of fuel consumption.

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Poor mobility managementPoor mobility managementBy 2021 there will be a shortfall of nine million trips

per day

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Cities must be built on public transportCities must be built on public transport

23Public campaigns

Urban crisis and urban protest

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Targeting the Legislators

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December 2002 -- Battle won: CNG programme established

The current tally:

10,600 buses

52,623 Three-wheelers

10,350 private cars

4,497 mini buses

5,043 taxis

5,909 light commercial vehicles

689 Other commercial vehicles

Building public opinion

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Po

llu

tio

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Per-Capita GDP“The Kuznets Curve”

The message: LeapfrogThe message: LeapfrogAvoid the polluting pathways of the West. Avoid the polluting pathways of the West.

Adopt an alternative path that is precautionary and preventiveAdopt an alternative path that is precautionary and preventive

Business As Usual

Alternative Path Of Progress

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Thank You