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The internet has become our defacto distribution network for utility computing (otherwise known as cloud computing). The global response to IPv4 exhaustion has not been adoption of IPv6; as such we face a future internet where the incumbent players dictate the terms and conditions for entry. This will have a negative impact on innovation in systems that are build on cloud.
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Cloud Distribution Forecast:
Unsettledhttp://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00665/first-ever-fish_665107n.jpg
The new IT paradigm is here!
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bellatrix6/167778974/
But distribution is needed
http://www.flickr.com/photos/elsie/67224092/
Our global cloud distribution network
http://www.zageex.ro/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/internet-24591-288x300.jpg
The numbers game: IPv4 exhaustion
Why is this such a complex issue to solve?
http://www.potaroo.net/ispcol/2009-05/ipv4model.html
Problem #1"The Internet is not a thing"*
* quote stolen from Martin Geddeshttp://blog.ecomm.ec/2010/07/martin-geddes-interview-cloud.html
It’s a collection of agreements to exchange traffic
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/io9/2009/03/85283245.jpg
Problem #2 Question: Is cloud distribution cool, fashionable and strategic?
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/io9/2009/03/85283245.jpg
Problem #2 Question: Is cloud distribution cool, fashionable and strategic?
Nope! IP = digital commodity
Problem #3: It's all about Game Theory
http://www.i-know.ro/upload/editor/Game-Theory.jpg
Millions of players (acting in their own interests)
Possible impacts for cloud (and building on cloud)
1000 customers behind one public IP? Hmmm...
http://www.delegator.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Geo-Targeting.jpg
Geo-targeting? (Ad revenue models?)Abuse detection? Lawful intercept?
Rising costs?
IPv4 Black market:
New entrants "pay to play" with IPv4.
http://blogs.creditcards.com/assets_c/2011/02/price-hike-tag-thumb-250x290-1029.jpg
Performance?
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/prod/collateral/iosswrel/ps6537/ps6553/images/white_paper_c11-558744-00-06.jpg
http://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-donley-nat444-impacts-01
"advanced tasks fail outright or are subject to severe service degradation"
IETF - Internet-Draft - Assessing NAT444:
(Good luck cloud gaming!)
Failure of the free market?
"...in a networked environment that stalls on IPv6 the resultant NAT and ALG-ridden IPv4 environment is one where the current incumbents will hold all the addresses and any further competitive entry into the Internet by new actors, at both the levels of carriage and content services, would be effectively limited to the terms and conditions imposed by the incumbents."
Geoff Huston, APNIC
Innovation and tech evolution
•New protocols, applications, services? •Peer-to-Peer Cloud? •Internet of things?
All face major obstacles in a NAT444 and ALG world
http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/whitepapers/IEEEUSAWP-IPv62009.pdfhttp://www.potaroo.net/ispcol/2011-07/oecdhlm.html
Thanks for listening!
Daniel [email protected]: dan0young