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Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00665/first-ever-fish_665107n.jpg

Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

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The internet has become our defacto distribution network for utility computing (otherwise known as cloud computing). The global response to IPv4 exhaustion has not been adoption of IPv6; as such we face a future internet where the incumbent players dictate the terms and conditions for entry. This will have a negative impact on innovation in systems that are build on cloud.

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Page 1: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

Cloud Distribution Forecast:

Unsettledhttp://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00665/first-ever-fish_665107n.jpg

Page 2: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

The new IT paradigm is here!

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bellatrix6/167778974/

Page 3: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

But distribution is needed

http://www.flickr.com/photos/elsie/67224092/

Page 4: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

Our global cloud distribution network

http://www.zageex.ro/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/internet-24591-288x300.jpg

Page 5: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

The numbers game: IPv4 exhaustion

Why is this such a complex issue to solve?

http://www.potaroo.net/ispcol/2009-05/ipv4model.html

Page 6: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

Problem #1"The Internet is not a thing"*

* quote stolen from Martin Geddeshttp://blog.ecomm.ec/2010/07/martin-geddes-interview-cloud.html

It’s a collection of agreements to exchange traffic

Page 7: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/io9/2009/03/85283245.jpg

Problem #2 Question: Is cloud distribution cool, fashionable and strategic?

Page 8: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/io9/2009/03/85283245.jpg

Problem #2 Question: Is cloud distribution cool, fashionable and strategic?

Nope! IP = digital commodity

Page 9: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

Problem #3: It's all about Game Theory

http://www.i-know.ro/upload/editor/Game-Theory.jpg

Millions of players (acting in their own interests)

Page 10: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

Possible impacts for cloud (and building on cloud)

Page 11: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

1000 customers behind one public IP? Hmmm...

http://www.delegator.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Geo-Targeting.jpg

Geo-targeting? (Ad revenue models?)Abuse detection? Lawful intercept?

Page 12: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

Rising costs?

IPv4 Black market:

New entrants "pay to play" with IPv4.

http://blogs.creditcards.com/assets_c/2011/02/price-hike-tag-thumb-250x290-1029.jpg

Page 13: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

Performance?

http://www.cisco.com/en/US/prod/collateral/iosswrel/ps6537/ps6553/images/white_paper_c11-558744-00-06.jpg

http://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-donley-nat444-impacts-01

"advanced tasks fail outright or are subject to severe service degradation"

  

IETF - Internet-Draft - Assessing NAT444:

(Good luck cloud gaming!)

Page 14: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

Failure of the free market?

"...in a networked environment that stalls on IPv6 the resultant NAT and ALG-ridden IPv4 environment is one where the current incumbents will hold all the addresses and any further competitive entry into the Internet by new actors, at both the levels of carriage and content services, would be effectively limited to the terms and conditions imposed by the incumbents."

Geoff Huston, APNIC

Page 15: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

Innovation and tech evolution

•New protocols, applications, services? •Peer-to-Peer Cloud? •Internet of things?

All face major obstacles in a NAT444 and ALG world

http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/whitepapers/IEEEUSAWP-IPv62009.pdfhttp://www.potaroo.net/ispcol/2011-07/oecdhlm.html

Page 16: Cloud Distribution Forecast: Unsettled

Thanks for listening! 

Daniel [email protected]: dan0young