Upload
tbli-conference
View
167
Download
3
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
April 13, 2023
Daisy ZhangChina Utility & Renewable EnergyBNP Paribas Equities (Asia) LtdShanghai Representative Office+8621 6096 [email protected]
China Renewable Energy – Growth for the Next Decade
April 13, 2023 2
Agenda
Actions to stimulate renewable energy development
Current energy structure in china
Current development of renewable energy in china
Concerns over the development and their solution
April 13, 2023 3
Currently, China is relying too much on coal
Over 70% of China primary energy consumption are supported by coal
74% of installed power generation capacity are thermal power
81% of electricity is generated from coal
Downside: Environmental impact, GHG emission, Sustainability, etc …
Sources: China Electricity Council, BP Energy Review 2011, National Bureau of Statistics
Installed capacity breakdown (end - 2010)
Power generation breakdown (2010)
Primary energy structure (2010)
April 13, 2023 4
… but appetite for energy will not stop
The high reliance on coal power is NOT sustainable
China must find new way to support the future growth
Power demand growth remain high, 12% y-y growth in 7M11
The continued growth of the energy intensive industry such as chemical, construction material, ferrous and non-ferrous metal processing is driving the total demand
Total power consumption for 7M11 has grew 12% y-y
China is experiencing a sever power shortage partially due to the high demand growth
On the other hand, the government has start to put stringent control over future coal consumption for environment protection
e.g., Beijing government has planned to REDUCE the coal consumption of city by 26% in the next five years
the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and other seven regions are likely to adopt similar environment protection plan
On the other hand, China has enormous potential for renewables
April 13, 2023 5
Fuel typeDeveloped (end-2010)
Economical Resources
Developed %
Hydro 213 GW 402 GW 53%
Wind (onshore)
44 GW 297 GW 15%
Wind (offshore)
0.1 GW 180 GW 0.06%
Solar 0.24 GW
1-7 trillion ton standard coal
equiv. sunlight
Minimal
Biomass 5.5 GW1.17 bn ton
standard coal equiv.
Minimal
Sources: Chinese Academy of Engineering , Energy Bureau, China Electricity Council
Renewable resources and development Wind power resources
Solar power resources Solar power resources
April 13, 2023 6
The nation is determined to promote renewable energy
In September 2007, the NDRC first released its Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for Renewable Energy. This sets out targets for renewable energy up to 2020, with a 10% contribution to total energy consumption by 2010 and 15% by 2020.
To meet its targets, the PRC government has announced its intention to invest about RMB 2 trillion in the development of renewable energy.
In addition, this plan also includes a “Mandated Market Share” policy, It sets targets that the market share of power generated from non-hydro renewable sources shall reach 1% by 2010 and 3% by 2020.
In August 2009, the NDRC announced that the “New Energy Industry Promotion Plan” would be issued.
According to a draft of the plan, China plans to invest RMB 5 trillion in new energy infrastructure development (including nuclear, wind, solar, and biomass power generation) by 2020, upgrading traditional energy, and industrializing the clean coal, smart grid and electric car industries.
April 13, 2023 7
A bundle of policies to benefit the renewable players are issued
Favourable policy to cultivate the renewable energy sector
Differentiated on-grid tariff – to benefit the renewable energy operators
Priority to sell on grid – energy from the renewable sources has been granted the priority to be sold on grid among all categories
Tax cut – 50% VAT tax rebate to wind power operators
Favourable policies towards lending and R&D investments
On grid tariff by power category
Sources: NDRC, BNP Paribas
April 13, 2023 8
Renewable share will be increased significantly in next decade
Fuel type2010(MW)
2015E(MW)
2020E(MW)
2010-2020CAGR (%)
Thermal 706,634 917,000 1,150,000 5.0
Hydro 213,397 284,000 330,000 4.5
Nuclear 10,824 43,000 80,000 22.1
Wind (on grid)
31,070 90,000 150,000 17.1
Solar 240 10,000 40,000 66.8
Biomass 5,500 13,000
Total 962,190 1,437,000 1,885,000 7.0
Power Installed Capacity Breakdown
Source: China Electricity Council, NDRC; BNP Paribas
Global wind power capacity ranking
By 2010, wind and solar only account for only 3.3% in total installed capacity
By 2015 and 2020, the share of renewables is estimated to reach 7.0% and 10.1%.
April 13, 2023 9
Energy structure will be much improved
China Primary Energy Structure
By 2010, share of wind and other renewable is insignificant
By 2015 wind, solar and other renewable energy is expect to take 2.6% share
By 2050, China aims to lower the dependency on coal and oil to 50% and increase share of hydro, wind, solar and other renewables to 25%
Sources: NDRC, National Bureau of Statistics
April 13, 2023 10
Wind power has been growing robustly in the past years
Wind power installed capacity almost double each year in the past 5 years, thanks to the favourable policies and declining wind farm construction costs
By end 2010, China has become the largest country in the world in terms of both cumulative wind power installed capacity and annual installed capacity
Wind power installed capacity growth Global wind power capacity ranking
Sources: CEC, GWEC
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2,010 2015E
Biomass(MW)
April 13, 2023 11
PV and Bio-mass will also experience phenomenal growth
Source: BP Energy Review 2011, NDRC, China Securities Journal
PV installed capacity growth 2000-2010-2020E
Bio-mass capacity growth 2010-2015E
~20% grow p.a.
500 to 700 new plants to be built before 2015
April 13, 2023 12
However, there are some concerns
Concerns Solution
Fluctuation of renewable power generation
The output of wind farms and PV cells does not match the power consumption across time
Distribution of renewable resources:
Wind resources and sunlight resource are concentrated in Northwest, Inner Mongolia, and Northeast China
However, the main power load of China are located along the coast line and in central China
Thus grid connection becomes a major bottle neck for renewables
Ultra High Voltage Power Grid
3 horizontal, 3 vertical, 1 loop of UHVAC grid to integrate China’s renewable plant and power users in one inter-connected grid
Over 10 UHVDC line to deliver electricity over thousands of kilometres
Over RMB 500 bn will be invested
Construction of Pump Storage Stations
To store the energy from the renewable sources and release when needed
April 13, 2023 13
National Power Grid Upgrade Plan - UHVAC
Chongqing
Urumqi
Yongdeng
Completed
Planned/In construction
Northwest China Grid(State Grid)
Central China Grid(State Grid)
East China Grid (State Grid)
North China Grid(State Grid)
Northeast China Grid (State Grid)
South China Grid(South Grid)
Shanghai
Ximeng
Beijing
North ZhejiangHefei
Xuzhou
Jinan
Weifang
Zhangbei
Jingbian Central Shanxi
North Hebei
Zhumadian
Nanyang
Jingmeng Wuhan
ChangshaNanchang
Leshan
Ya’an
Nanjing
West Inner Mongolia
West Inner Mongolia Grid
UHVAC
Will help connect the wind power from Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Gansu to the Central China and North China power Grid
Sources: State Grid, BNP Paribas
April 13, 2023 14
National Power Grid Upgrade Plan - UHVDC
UHVDC
Connect the wind power and PV plant from Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and north east to central and east China
Connect the hydro power from Southwest China to south and east China
Completed
Planned/In construction
Zhengzhou
Chongqing
Hami
Zhundong
Xiluodu
ZhejiangXiangjiaba
Shanghai
Nuozhadu
Guangdong
Jiuquani
Zhuzhou
Longdong
Xinyu
Xichang
South Jiangsu
NingdongQingdaoNorthwest China Grid
(State Grid)
Central China Grid(State Grid)
East China Grid (State Grid)
North China Grid(State Grid)
Northeast China Grid (State Grid)
South China Grid(South Grid)
West Inner Mongolia Grid
Hulunbeier
Chifeng
±1100kV
±660kV
±1100kV Voltage, all non labeled lines are ±800kV
Sources: State Grid, South Grid, BNP Paribas
April 13, 2023 15
Development of pump storage station
Pump storage stations offers the possibility to store the excessive power generated from wind power/solar power, and output the energy to the power grid when required
China plans to quadruple the capacity of pump storage stations from 15GW in 2010, to 60GW by 2020
Forecast of pump storage station capacity Configuration of a pump storage station
Sources: NDRC
Illustration from internet
April 13, 2023 16
Conclusion
China has been relying on coal too much in the past. This has to be changed, in a green way
Favorable policy and investment are poured into the sector stimulating the growth
The share of renewable energy in China will be significantly increased in the next decade, benefiting China and the green energy players
There are headwinds, but we are confident that these issues can be solved with combined effort from government and market participants
April 13, 2023
Daisy ZhangChina Utility & Renewable EnergyBNP Paribas Equities (Asia) LtdShanghai Representative Office+8621 6096 [email protected]
The end
Thank you!