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Whilst our technology has increased our understanding of natural and man-made systems, our fundamental intelligence and abilities have remained static, and so have our limits of comprehension. It turns out that we are ill equipped to deal with the underlying non-linear mechanisms governing the natural, evolved and designed worlds. Exemplars that embody these challenges include: the folding of proteins; the design of targeted medicines; the creation of new materials; dense energy storage; adaptive/programmable materials; and artificial intelligence. So, to live, prosper and survive as a species we have to look to a symbiotic relationship with our technology to aid our comprehension and amplify our intelligence, and our knowledge in an increasingly connected complex an non-linear world.
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DataMeta Data
Knowledge
IntelligencePeter Cochrane
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
cochrane.org.ukca-global.org
Sunday, 20 May 12
We are challenged by a rising tide of complexity
Sunday, 20 May 12
B u t w e h av e n o general methods and models to analyse & understand...we are largely flying blind...
Sunday, 20 May 12
Hypothesis:
•The time of simple models & mathematics has gone
•We m a y n e v e r f u l l y understand many underlying mechanisms
•Outcomes & implications may only become clear after the fact...
Sunday, 20 May 12
Decoding DNA is but one example of humans be i ng de fea ted by complex i ty. . . to be rescued by machines...
Sunday, 20 May 12
Decoding Protein >1000x more complex...networked machines are the only way...
Sunday, 20 May 12
Similarly:
•Weather systems •Seismic data •Money markets •Mapping the heavens •Medical imaging•Logistics•Data networks•Political negotiations•++++
...again machines come to our rescue...
Sunday, 20 May 12
Underlying non-linear m e c h a n i s m s a r e difficult / impossible to characterise... and even m o r e d i f fi c u l t t o understand...
Sunday, 20 May 12
Hypothesis:
The future is about emergent behaviours and surprises...
Sunday, 20 May 12
It is about to get more complex by way of new mechanisms & technology
Sunday, 20 May 12
The next industrial revolution starts here...
Nano Bio
IT + AI
Sunday, 20 May 12
The next industrial revolution starts here...
This is where all the real action is going to be
Nano Bio
IT + AI
Sunday, 20 May 12
And a move from cycles of:
‘Food to Waste’...to
‘Food to Waste to Food’
Sunday, 20 May 12
Sustainability cannot be realised with old techno log ies , o ld industry models... and old thinking...
Sunday, 20 May 12
Moving on from bulk materials and the d e s t r u c t i o n o f resources...
. . . 3 D p r i n t i n g i s g o i n g mainstream in industry... and soon it will be in every office
and home
Sunday, 20 May 12
Programming materials to form 3D objects of predefined shape & function...
Sunday, 20 May 12
Sensors and decoding the genome in minutes will change medicine and care...
...whilst the decoding the protein will lead to a new chapter for the human race...
Sunday, 20 May 12
We can only guess at the social implications of new technologies as we roll them out...
Sunday, 20 May 12
What does it know
about you?
Sunday, 20 May 12
What does it know
about you?
Where you are ?Where you have been ?Where you are likely to be going to ?Who you have met ?Who you are going to meet ?Who you call ?Who calls you ?Who you TXT - IM - Link ?All your contactsAll your urlsAll you passwordsWhat you are doing now ?What have you done in the past ?What games you play ?What apps you use ?What music you listen to...?What you watch...?What you read...?++++++++++
Sunday, 20 May 12
Sunday, 20 May 12
The £ $ € is in the ‘Meta Data’
Sunday, 20 May 12
The Cloud - will be a big game changer...
Sunday, 20 May 12
We will generate more and more data...
Sunday, 20 May 12
So where does all this lead ?
Sunday, 20 May 12
Symbiotic relationships with our machines...
Sunday, 20 May 12
New intelligences born of networked people and machines...
Sunday, 20 May 12
PerspectivePerspective
PerspectivePerspective
Perspective
Sunday, 20 May 12
Amplifiers of human muscle...
Sunday, 20 May 12
Amplifiers of human minds...
Sunday, 20 May 12
Amplifiers of human capacity, capability...and machine intellect ?
Sunday, 20 May 12
AI for the professions and the masses via The Cloud...
Sunday, 20 May 12
Being used by the medical profession today...
Sunday, 20 May 12
AFundamental question...
Sunday, 20 May 12
Why is my loptop so dumb ?
Sunday, 20 May 12
It has an abundance of: - processing power
- memory
- RAM
- network access
- WWW information
Sunday, 20 May 12
But it acts dumb and doesn’t:
- learn my habits
- anticipate my needs
- correct my errors
- learn from mistakes
- monitor me and my life
Sunday, 20 May 12
38,700,000
14,600,000
Not all that helpful !
Sunday, 20 May 12
And yet machines are better at games than us...and outsmart us on general knowledge...
Sunday, 20 May 12
They control our industrial processes to feed, clothe, and transport us...
Sunday, 20 May 12
And bring new levels of creativity and p rob l em so l v i n g skills to the party...
Sunday, 20 May 12
But aren’t we just talking about mere algorithms running on stacks of silicon...they are not really intelligent - are they ?
Sunday, 20 May 12
The big problem is we have no:
•Description
•Definition
•Quantification
•Measure
...we don’t actually know what intelligence is...
Sunday, 20 May 12
And there is nothing of much use in the published literature !
Sunday, 20 May 12
However, one voluble group often voice their opinion on this topic... the priesthood of the singularity...
Sunday, 20 May 12
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Com
putin
g Po
wer
MIP/s
Inte
llige
nce
Leve
l
PC
Internet SuperComputer
Their predictions look like this..
Sunday, 20 May 12
P.M The deep theoretical assumption behind their predictions !!
Sunday, 20 May 12
On this basis they predict that the machines will take around 2035 !
Sunday, 20 May 12
compare
systems ?
how do weSo,
complex
Sunday, 20 May 12
No P or M !
Sunday, 20 May 12
No P or M !
Sunday, 20 May 12
Scanning long term comatose patients of 10 years...considered to be totally vegetative !
Sunday, 20 May 12
Sensors S > 0
Actuators A > 0
Memory M > 0
Processor P > 0
Necessary conditions for intelligence...
Sunday, 20 May 12
Axiom
Intelligence is Entropic
Sunday, 20 May 12
ActuatorA
So starting with a simple model of this form...
ProcessorP1
SystemEnvirons
MemoryM
ProcessorP2
SensorsS
Sunday, 20 May 12
Starting with simple models and building the complexity a layer at a time...
SystemEnvirons
MemoryShortTerm
Processor1
Actuator
Sensors
MemoryLongTerm
Processor2
Sunday, 20 May 12
Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )]
S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory
Followed by mathematical juggling,normalisation, a few liberties, & of engineering licence...
Sunday, 20 May 12
So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?
Sunday, 20 May 12
So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?
How about: - sensors? - adaptability?
Sunday, 20 May 12
But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!
Sunday, 20 May 12
But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!
And our machines will see, hear, smell….…detect and communicate in a way and
at a rate we cannot!
Sunday, 20 May 12
In fact we are rolling out mobile Sensors and Actuators by the Bn !
Sunday, 20 May 12
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Com
putin
g Po
wer
MIP/sIntelligence
Level
PC
Estimates of Artificial Intelligence
Internet
Sunday, 20 May 12
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Com
putin
g Po
wer
MIP/sIntelligence
Level
PC
Estimates of Artificial Intelligence
Internet
Sunday, 20 May 12
What’s hot for the future:
- Networked people and devices- Networked machines- Sensors- Nano, Bio, AI- New materials- Sustainable production- Emergent intelligences- Emergent behaviours
- Our adaptability
Sunday, 20 May 12
Thank You
ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
Sunday, 20 May 12