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Data Meta Data Knowledge Intelligence Peter Cochrane COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org Sunday, 20 May 12

Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

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Whilst our technology has increased our understanding of natural and man-made systems, our fundamental intelligence and abilities have remained static, and so have our limits of comprehension. It turns out that we are ill equipped to deal with the underlying non-linear mechanisms governing the natural, evolved and designed worlds. Exemplars that embody these challenges include: the folding of proteins; the design of targeted medicines; the creation of new materials; dense energy storage; adaptive/programmable materials; and artificial intelligence. So, to live, prosper and survive as a species we have to look to a symbiotic relationship with our technology to aid our comprehension and amplify our intelligence, and our knowledge in an increasingly connected complex an non-linear world.

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Page 1: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

DataMeta Data

Knowledge

IntelligencePeter Cochrane

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

cochrane.org.ukca-global.org

Sunday, 20 May 12

Page 2: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

We are challenged by a rising tide of complexity

Sunday, 20 May 12

Page 3: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

B u t w e h av e n o general methods and models to analyse & understand...we are largely flying blind...

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Page 4: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Hypothesis:

•The time of simple models & mathematics has gone

•We m a y n e v e r f u l l y understand many underlying mechanisms

•Outcomes & implications may only become clear after the fact...

Sunday, 20 May 12

Page 5: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Decoding DNA is but one example of humans be i ng de fea ted by complex i ty. . . to be rescued by machines...

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Decoding Protein >1000x more complex...networked machines are the only way...

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Similarly:

•Weather systems •Seismic data •Money markets •Mapping the heavens •Medical imaging•Logistics•Data networks•Political negotiations•++++

...again machines come to our rescue...

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Page 8: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Underlying non-linear m e c h a n i s m s a r e difficult / impossible to characterise... and even m o r e d i f fi c u l t t o understand...

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Page 9: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Hypothesis:

The future is about emergent behaviours and surprises...

Sunday, 20 May 12

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It is about to get more complex by way of new mechanisms & technology

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The next industrial revolution starts here...

Nano Bio

IT + AI

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Page 12: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

The next industrial revolution starts here...

This is where all the real action is going to be

Nano Bio

IT + AI

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And a move from cycles of:

‘Food to Waste’...to

‘Food to Waste to Food’

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Sustainability cannot be realised with old techno log ies , o ld industry models... and old thinking...

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Page 15: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Moving on from bulk materials and the d e s t r u c t i o n o f resources...

. . . 3 D p r i n t i n g i s g o i n g mainstream in industry... and soon it will be in every office

and home

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Page 16: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Programming materials to form 3D objects of predefined shape & function...

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Page 17: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Sensors and decoding the genome in minutes will change medicine and care...

...whilst the decoding the protein will lead to a new chapter for the human race...

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Page 18: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

We can only guess at the social implications of new technologies as we roll them out...

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Page 19: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

What does it know

about you?

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Page 20: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

What does it know

about you?

Where you are ?Where you have been ?Where you are likely to be going to ?Who you have met ?Who you are going to meet ?Who you call ?Who calls you ?Who you TXT - IM - Link ?All your contactsAll your urlsAll you passwordsWhat you are doing now ?What have you done in the past ?What games you play ?What apps you use ?What music you listen to...?What you watch...?What you read...?++++++++++

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The £ $ € is in the ‘Meta Data’

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The Cloud - will be a big game changer...

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Page 24: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

We will generate more and more data...

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Page 25: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

So where does all this lead ?

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Page 26: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Symbiotic relationships with our machines...

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New intelligences born of networked people and machines...

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PerspectivePerspective

PerspectivePerspective

Perspective

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Page 29: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Amplifiers of human muscle...

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Amplifiers of human minds...

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Amplifiers of human capacity, capability...and machine intellect ?

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AI for the professions and the masses via The Cloud...

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Being used by the medical profession today...

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AFundamental question...

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Why is my loptop so dumb ?

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It has an abundance of: - processing power

- memory

- RAM

- network access

- WWW information

Sunday, 20 May 12

Page 37: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

But it acts dumb and doesn’t:

- learn my habits

- anticipate my needs

- correct my errors

- learn from mistakes

- monitor me and my life

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Page 38: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

38,700,000

14,600,000

Not all that helpful !

Sunday, 20 May 12

Page 39: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

And yet machines are better at games than us...and outsmart us on general knowledge...

Sunday, 20 May 12

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They control our industrial processes to feed, clothe, and transport us...

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And bring new levels of creativity and p rob l em so l v i n g skills to the party...

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But aren’t we just talking about mere algorithms running on stacks of silicon...they are not really intelligent - are they ?

Sunday, 20 May 12

Page 43: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

The big problem is we have no:

•Description

•Definition

•Quantification

•Measure

...we don’t actually know what intelligence is...

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Page 44: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

And there is nothing of much use in the published literature !

Sunday, 20 May 12

Page 45: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

However, one voluble group often voice their opinion on this topic... the priesthood of the singularity...

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Page 46: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

1960 70 80 90 2000 10

Com

putin

g Po

wer

MIP/s

Inte

llige

nce

Leve

l

PC

Internet SuperComputer

Their predictions look like this..

Sunday, 20 May 12

Page 47: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

P.M The deep theoretical assumption behind their predictions !!

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On this basis they predict that the machines will take around 2035 !

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compare

systems ?

how do weSo,

complex

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No P or M !

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No P or M !

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Scanning long term comatose patients of 10 years...considered to be totally vegetative !

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Sensors S > 0

Actuators A > 0

Memory M > 0

Processor P > 0

Necessary conditions for intelligence...

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Page 54: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Axiom

Intelligence is Entropic

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ActuatorA

So starting with a simple model of this form...

ProcessorP1

SystemEnvirons

MemoryM

ProcessorP2

SensorsS

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Page 56: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Starting with simple models and building the complexity a layer at a time...

SystemEnvirons

MemoryShortTerm

Processor1

Actuator

Sensors

MemoryLongTerm

Processor2

Sunday, 20 May 12

Page 57: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )]

S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory

Followed by mathematical juggling,normalisation, a few liberties, & of engineering licence...

Sunday, 20 May 12

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So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?

Sunday, 20 May 12

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So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?

How about: - sensors? - adaptability?

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But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!

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But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!

And our machines will see, hear, smell….…detect and communicate in a way and

at a rate we cannot!

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In fact we are rolling out mobile Sensors and Actuators by the Bn !

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1960 70 80 90 2000 10

Com

putin

g Po

wer

MIP/sIntelligence

Level

PC

Estimates of Artificial Intelligence

Internet

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Page 64: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

1960 70 80 90 2000 10

Com

putin

g Po

wer

MIP/sIntelligence

Level

PC

Estimates of Artificial Intelligence

Internet

Sunday, 20 May 12

Page 65: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

What’s hot for the future:

- Networked people and devices- Networked machines- Sensors- Nano, Bio, AI- New materials- Sustainable production- Emergent intelligences- Emergent behaviours

- Our adaptability

Sunday, 20 May 12

Page 66: Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Thank You

ca-global.org

cochrane.org.uk

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

Sunday, 20 May 12