The 2012 Drought:Perspectives, Opportunities, and Obligations

Jim Gaffney& The Drought Research Council

History of Drought Since AD 992 - Dendrochronology

Recreated from Stambaugh et al., 2011

4) 1934

2) 1800 3) 1821 6) 1820 8) 1874

1) 1020

Decadal/Multi-Decadal Droughts

5) 1548 – 15604) 1661 - 1705

1) 1815 – 1844 3) 1849 – 18802) 1909 - 1938

Worst Drought Years in History

Why Is the 2012 Drought Different?Emerging global middle class: China example

From http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2012/update102

The Challenge of Global Prosperity

Historically high demand

Drought events have greater impact

Limited expansion of land and water resources

Yield – major crops may be losing ground

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Addressing the Challenge: • 9 years• 448 hybrids• 17 countries• National research programs• Private seed companies• CIMMYT

Weber et al. 2012. Crop Science 52

Maize Managed Stress Screening in Africa• Erratic timing and

intensity of heat and drought

Hybrid Development for Drought in the Western U.S. Cornbelt

FOCUS ON

• Yield under drought • Emergence under stress• Resistance to

• brittle snap• head smut• Goss’s Wilt

• Plus herbicide and insect control traits

Success on Which to Build

• 40% more maize per acre today in the U.S. with same amounts of nitrogen and available water as 25 - 30 years ago

• 2012 maize yields (drought) better than good year yields 25 years ago

• U.S. maize production has among smallest water footprints of any grain crop

• Nebraska farmers produce 12.5 T/ha maize with low global warming potential, high energy balance, and efficient irrigation and use of inputs

Drought has been common

Global prosperity is on the rise

Additional pressure on land and water

Public investment in Ag R&D waning (in OECD)

Numerous challenges

Opportunities

Summary

Collaborations needed

Develop technology where its most needed

Objective, science-based regulation and policy is critical

Prioritize public agriculture R&D and resource it

Improve the resiliency of global agricultural production in the face of drought

Call to Action/Obligations

Academia

J.S. Boyer, University of Delaware

P. Byrne, Colorado State University

K.G. Cassman, University of Nebraska

D. Delmer, University of California, Davis (Emeritus)

N. Kenny, Texas A&M University

D. Porter, Texas A&M University

A. Schlegel, Kansas State University

J. Sawyer, Iowa State University

T. Setter, Cornell University

R.E. Sharp, University of Missouri

T. Vyn, Purdue University,

The Drought Research CouncilDuPont Pioneer

M. Cooper

J. Gaffney

T. Greene

F. Gruis

J. Habben

N. Hausmann

R. Lafitte

S. Paszkiewicz

J. Schussler

J. Shanahan

D. Warner