Evolving connectivity

Peter Cochrane

ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk

COCHRANEa s s o c i a t e s

Evolving Connectivity

Thursday, 11 November 2010

When machines…

…come to our rescue!

Possible subtitle:


A few axiomatic things I need to get off my chest…

….that may give you a wider perspective(?)


We build top down to create complex things to complete simple tasks…

Mother Nature builds bottom up to create simple things to achieve the complex!


We are now the limiters of progress…technology is advancing faster than we can respond...

..but it may not be that way forever!


No individual can ever understand these!


Everybody is on line...

>4Bn people have mobile phones and >50% are internet ready!

Soon it will be everything!


Everything in the universe is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions….

…but we are linear and limited thinkers devoidof tools & techniques tohelp us comprehend…

If we have a long-term future it lies with our technology and machines and their ability to help us extend our knowledge & understanding


A false sense of confidence!

Our educational perception

The unknown

The known The unknown

The known

Our post-education experience


No human leader, from the past, present or future has the wisdom & ability to govern a complex planet!


No human scientist, past, present or future has the wisdom & ability to understand a complex planet!


There are lots of simple solutions to complex problems…

…and they are all wrong!

Single issue thinking is now dead or dangerous


People look at problems through one of these:

When they actually need one of these:


The changing shape of societies…

HunterGatherer

EarlyCivilizations

IndustrialRevolution

Inherentlylinear & wellbehaved…

Optimizing individualparts canoptimize

the whole

Intuitionmostly works

Connectivity ∝ N and does not scale


The changing shape of societies…Inherentlynon-linear &

not wellbehaved…

Optimizing individual

parts neveroptimizes the whole

Intuitionmostly

fails

InformationSociety

Connectivity

Phone ∝N2

Internet∝Nn


The changing shape of societies…

This all getsvery muchworse aseverythingbecomes

mobile andintelligent

and sensory

SemanticSociety


Web 3.0...4.0...5.0...

Autonomous: Sensors Computing power

Artificial Intelligence Human Augmentation Decision Making System Control People Support Society Support Commercial Support


How will we dealwith the complex ?


Hypothesis

The combined intelligence of all humanity isinsufficient


Hypothesis

The combined intelligence of all humanity isinsufficient

Our only hope isthe combinedintelligence

of our machines


Time

ConnectedPopulation Social Networks

StaticNetworkGrowth

DynamicNetworkGrowth


Time

Connections M

My LinkedIn

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

06/07 07/08 08/09

GrowthModel

MeasuredPoints

20% of totalPopulation


How many people in your network,

and how many things/devices?


Time

Human v

MachinesFutures

# HumansChipsComputersRobotsNano-BotsBio-Bots

# Robots

# Machines


Linear

Our very recent awakening...

Non-LinearChaotic SystemsChaotic Systems

All life systemsCreativityBehavioursProblem solving+++++

Machine abilities & knowledge

Human abilities & knowledge


Linear

Our very recent awakening...

Non-LinearChaotic SystemsChaotic Systems

All life systemsCreativityBehavioursProblem solving+++++

Machine abilities & knowledge

Human abilities & knowledge


So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?

How about: - sensors? - adaptability?


But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!And our machines will see, hear, smell….…detect and communicate in a way and

at a rate we cannot!


The sociology of people & animals will be overtaken by the sociology of fixed & mobile things


What can machines do now?


What can machines do now?


Genetically ~99.4% human

If ~0.6% matters so much…

no wonder IT systems are so dumb!


Experience??

Intelligence?

Processing

Sensors

Communicationwith others

Data

Information

Knowledge

Wisdom

Senses

Processing

Intelligence

Experience

Gradually our machinesare sensing more than us!


Thank you….

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk


Technology

Evolving connectivity