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Slides for a talk on the future of money, at Turing Festival 2013.
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What about now?
• Ongoing financial crises
What about now?
• Ongoing financial crises
• Coming up: pensions crisis
What about now?
• Ongoing financial crises
• Coming up: pensions crisis
• Also: sovereign independence crisis (FATCA)
What about now?
• Ongoing financial crises
• Coming up: pensions crisis
• Also: sovereign independence crisis (FATCA)
What about now?
• Ongoing financial crises
• Coming up: pensions crisis
• Also: sovereign independence crisis (FATCA)
• Not going to talk about these today - too depressing!
What about now?
About Bitcoin
About Bitcoin
• Solution to all those problems!
About Bitcoin
• Solution to all those problems!
• Does not require banks
About Bitcoin
• Solution to all those problems!
• Does not require banks
• Controlled inflation
About Bitcoin
• Solution to all those problems!
• Does not require banks
• Controlled inflation
• No political interference
About Bitcoin
• Solution to all those problems!
• Does not require banks
• Controlled inflation
• No political interference
• Enables new innovations
This talk imagines a world 50 years from now
how it’s impacted by the combination of
financial cryptographyadvanced robotics
and lots of other new technologies
My name is Mike and I love the future
Jen wants to join her friends in the city
She finds the ride via the TradeNet
The future of taxis
The TradeNet is a P2P network
Users post demands and traders supply bids
The future of taxis
TradeNet
• Standardised broadcast and advertisement mechanism
TradeNet
• Standardised broadcast and advertisement mechanism
• No direct user interface - specialised apps use it as infrastructure
TradeNet
• Standardised broadcast and advertisement mechanism
• No direct user interface - specialised apps use it as infrastructure
• Users software examines bids and selects the best based on
TradeNet
• Standardised broadcast and advertisement mechanism
• No direct user interface - specialised apps use it as infrastructure
• Users software examines bids and selects the best based on
• Previous experiences and prices paid
TradeNet
• Standardised broadcast and advertisement mechanism
• No direct user interface - specialised apps use it as infrastructure
• Users software examines bids and selects the best based on
• Previous experiences and prices paid
• Anonymized, cryptographically provable ratings and history
TradeNet
• Standardised broadcast and advertisement mechanism
• No direct user interface - specialised apps use it as infrastructure
• Users software examines bids and selects the best based on
• Previous experiences and prices paid
• Anonymized, cryptographically provable ratings and history
• Machine learning models that blend many other factors together
TradeNet
• Standardised broadcast and advertisement mechanism
• No direct user interface - specialised apps use it as infrastructure
• Users software examines bids and selects the best based on
• Previous experiences and prices paid
• Anonymized, cryptographically provable ratings and history
• Machine learning models that blend many other factors together
• Intended for fast, lightweight commerce for commodity goods and services
TradeNet
Vehicles use the TradeNet to find customers ....
... but also to bid for road space.
The future of taxis
Who owns this vehicle?
Who profits from this trip?
The future of taxis
What owns this vehicle?
What profits from this trip?
The future of taxis
Autonomous agents
• Can be pure software or have a hardware component (e.g. self driving car)
Autonomous agents
• Can be pure software or have a hardware component (e.g. self driving car)
• Agents take part in the TradeNet too
Autonomous agents
• Can be pure software or have a hardware component (e.g. self driving car)
• Agents take part in the TradeNet too
• Agents maintain a Bitcoin wallet and use it to pay for their own costs.
Autonomous agents
• Can be pure software or have a hardware component (e.g. self driving car)
• Agents take part in the TradeNet too
• Agents maintain a Bitcoin wallet and use it to pay for their own costs.
• Agents can make a profit. Excess profit is used to spawn children, who then compete against the parents.
Autonomous agents
• Can be pure software or have a hardware component (e.g. self driving car)
• Agents take part in the TradeNet too
• Agents maintain a Bitcoin wallet and use it to pay for their own costs.
• Agents can make a profit. Excess profit is used to spawn children, who then compete against the parents.
• Agents die if they run out of money and may be deleted, salvaged or go into hibernation
Autonomous agents
Autonomous agents
• Their numbers reach equilibrium through market competition
Autonomous agents
• Their numbers reach equilibrium through market competition
• They can evolve by hiring humans to write upgrades for them
Autonomous agents
• Their numbers reach equilibrium through market competition
• They can evolve by hiring humans to write upgrades for them
• They are allowed to outcompete humans
Autonomous agents
• Their numbers reach equilibrium through market competition
• They can evolve by hiring humans to write upgrades for them
• They are allowed to outcompete humans
• Their services are cheap because they don’t have many costs
Autonomous agents
• Their numbers reach equilibrium through market competition
• They can evolve by hiring humans to write upgrades for them
• They are allowed to outcompete humans
• Their services are cheap because they don’t have many costs
• This is the justification for their existence
Autonomous agents
MatterNet
MatterNet
• Quadrocopter based delivery of objects over short distances.
MatterNet
• Quadrocopter based delivery of objects over short distances.
• Copters are also agents. They pay humans to repair and recharge them.
MatterNet
• Quadrocopter based delivery of objects over short distances.
• Copters are also agents. They pay humans to repair and recharge them.
• They can deliver not only objects but also ..... more agents!
Who creates these machines?
• Once created nobody profits directly
• Indirect profit is huge
• First agents developed via assurance contract
Assurance contracts
• People make pledges. Pledgers only pay if the contract target is reached.
• A method of funding public goods
• Current financial system is cumbersome and limited
• In future, lightweight assurance contracts will becommon
• Can be used to replace a lot of taxation
What about the jobs!?
• In the long run all non-creative jobs are doomed
• But even poor people will be wealthy by todays standards
• Better education (Khan Academy) is the key!
