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Improving the quantification of agricultural emissions in low-income countries. WATCH LIVE on WEDNESDAY 4 DECEMBER 14:30 CET: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/videostream
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Improving the quantification of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in low-income countries:
Standard Assessment of Mitigation Potential and Livelihoods in Smallholder Systems (SAMPLES)
Photo courtesy of L Wollenberg
Todd Rosenstock, M Rufino, K Butterbach-Bahl, L Wollenberg, BO Sander, D Stern, D Pelster, H Neufeldt, R Wassmann, L Verchot, P van Asten, C Arias-Navarro, G Saiz, E Diaz-Pines, M Richards, I Ortiz-Monasterio, ML Jat, M Tapio-Bistrom, M Peters, A Castro, T Sapkota, and many others
CCAFS Live Stream| 4 December 2013
Rockström et al. (2009); Bennett et al. (in prep.)
Slide courtesy of B. Campbell
Global freshwater use
Change in land use
Biodiversity loss
Phosphorous cycle
Nitrogen cycle
Ocean acidification
Climate change
Planetary Boundaries
Current status
Role of Agriculture
Sustainable natural resource
management
Agricultural production
Courtesy: van Noordwijk unpublished
Smith et al. 2008
Suggestive mitigation potential of agricultural practices
But what do we really know about the impact of smallholders on greenhouse gas emissions and removals in developing countries?
Studies of N2O emissions from managed soils in SSA Hickman et al. in prep
Virtually no data+ = field
= lab-based
0 30 60 90 1200
3
6
9
12
15
dbh (cm)
AGB
(Mg)
Local equation: Kuyah et al. 2012
Kuyah et al. 2012 Ag, Eco & Env.; Kuyah and Rosenstock in review
Estimates based on data and models from other location can provide erroneous estimates of sources and sinks
As much as a 13% underestimation of biomass
Richards et al. in prep
Predicting emissions for smallholder cropping systems with available tools
Measured (CO2e kg ha-1 season-1)
Pred
icte
d by
Coo
l Far
m T
ool
(CO
2e k
g ha
-1 s
easo
n-1)
There is no data, so what…
• Calibrating to LED• Emerging green economy• Weakens position at global climate talk
Low-emissions development The green economy Global negotiations
Cash cropN2O
Food/cashCH4
White = livelihoodsRed = mitigation
FuelC sequestration
Feedcrop
Pasture C sequestration
The challenge
Kaptumo, Kenya
ActivitiesMapping pro-
poor mitigation opportunities
Measurement guidelines
Capacity development
Integrated assessment of
farming systems
Activities
Not all greenhouse gas numbers are equally credible
Rochette and Eriksen-Hamil 2008
60% of 360 studies of N2O emissions were inadequately reported to have confidence in results
Select exist
ing measu
rement ‘
guidelines’
Arias-Navarro et al. 2013 SBB
Small-scale spatial heterogeneity
Research constraints
Analytical capacity
Development of new context specific methods
Spatial heterogeneity
Arias-Navarro et al. 2013 SBB
Small-scale spatial heterogeneity
Research constraints
Analytical capacity in the lab
Development of new context specific methods
Spatial heterogeneity
Arias-Navarro et al. 2013 SBB
Good agreement between pooled sample and average flux
Region/Continent
Landscape/Watershed
Smallholder centricGHG impacts linked to productivity
Multi-scaleCost differentiated
Methodological innovations
Rosenstock et al. 2013 ERL Farm
A layered approach to identifying agricultural hotspots
-Population density
-Wealth
Soci
o-ec
onom
icBi
ophy
sica
l
-Management practices-Farming systems-Soils-Climate
???
-Enabling policy env.
Capacity building: institutional and scientific
NARS
Universities
Short courses
MS and PhDs
Climate, Food, and Farming Network (CLIFF)
2012 2013
Quantifying landscape emissions
Maize
Agroforestry species
CassavaWoody fallow
Recent clearing
Complex landscape: f (m, n, o, p, q)
m Landscape units
n Farm typesLand
LivestockOther assetsSources of incomes
p Farming activities
Characterise fertility x
management
Physical environment
GIS analysis, remote sensing
Food security, poverty levels
Productivity, GHG
emissions, crop
preferences
o Common lands
q Land types
Deconstructing complex landscapes and farms
Landscape units and land users in Nyando, Kenya
Target locations for quantification
Enteric fermention
Quantification methods
Livelihoods
Soil carbonSoil emissions
Biomasscarbon
Tradeoff analysis of multiple criteria
Identifying mitigation options
Alternate wetting and dryingCH4 reduction 43%. Sander et al. in press
1) Canal irrigation (upstream, low area, Bulacan 1) Should always have sufficient water
2) NIA-operated water pump (high-lying area, Bulacan 2) Pumps water 24/7 to higher area, electr. fee
3) Community owned water pump (Tarlac) Farmer buys diesel for usage of pump
4) Imposed AWD (canal end, Nueva Ecija) Water is supplied every other week
Social constraints to water differs among farmers
Sander and Wassmann ongoing
0
2
4
6
8
10
CF AWD
t CO
2-eq
/ha*
seas
onBulacan 1
5.3
1.8
-66%
0
2
4
6
8
10
CF AWD
t CO
2-eq
/ha*
seas
on
Bulacan 27.8
1.8
-77%
0
2
4
6
8
10
CF AWD
t CO
2-eq
/ha*
seas
on
Tarlac -70%
3.7
1.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
CF AWD
t CO
2-eq
/ha*
seas
on
NE -65%8.6
3.0
Cumulative methane emissions in 2013 in Philippine farmer fields
Sander and Wassmann ongoing
0123456789
10
CF AWDCF AWDCF AWD CF AWD
grai
n yi
eld
(t/h
a)
TarlacBulacan 2Bulacan 1 Nueva Ecija
*
Alternate wetting and drying yields equal to those of continuous flooding in 2013
Sander and Wassmann ongoing
Measures being investigated at various SAMPLES sites
Income & food security
Mitigation of GHGs
CO2 CH4 N2O
Improved diets + +/- + +
Water management + + +
Manure management + + +/-
Conservation agriculture + + +
Improved cookstoves + +/-
Aforestation +/- +/- +/- +/-
Nutrient management + + +/-
Agroforestry + + +/-
The efforts result in quantitative mitigation options
From ‘+’s to quantities and
ranges
ActivitiesMapping pro-
poor mitigation opportunities
Measurement guidelines
Capacity development
Integrated assessment of
farming systems
Priorities for research and development
Consistent and comparable data
Human and institutional
infrastructure
Socially acceptable, place-based
solutions
Activities
Outcomes
ActivitiesLinking knowledge with actionField-level
development activities National process NAMAs
Increased use of LED solutions
Evidence-based climate change
planning
Design of land based programs
Select examples of the SAMPLES 2014 research network
Nutrient management of maize (CIMMYT)
Farm-level intensification and avoided deforestation
(ICRAF) Nutrient and residue
management/ rice and wheat (CIMMYT)
Wetlands and perennial crop management (IITA, ILRI)
Water management/
rice (IRRI)
Agroforestry, nutrient management, landscapes
(ILRI, ICRAF, CIFOR)
Silvopastoral systems (CIAT)
10 countries 15 sites
Standard Assessment of Mitigation Potential and Livelihoods in Smallholder Systems
Thank you
Funding provided by: CCAFS, Environment Canada, Gov’t of Finland, USAID, Bayer CropScience, ICAR, BMBF, DAAD, CLIFF
