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06/07/2014 Pre-2020 Climate Policy: Instruments to increase ambition Öko Institut Ecofys ISI Fraunhofer-Institut

Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020

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Ecofys partnered with Öko Institut and Fraunhofer ISI to analyse the current efforts of country activities towards the 2°C target, in order to identify best practices and their possible impact on emission reduction pre-2020. The report and this presentation focus on four major thematic areas in which significant pre-2020 mitigation potential exists: renewable energy support, light duty vehicle standards, electric appliance energy efficiency, and methane from fossil fuel production.

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Page 1: Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020

06/07/2014

Pre-2020 Climate Policy: Instruments to increase ambition Öko Institut

Ecofys

ISI Fraunhofer-Institut

Page 2: Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020

© ECOFYS | |

Steps in the project

06/07/2014

Screening current activities

• Selection of countries

• Selection and analysis of indicators for identifying country activities

Defining thematic areas

• Evaluation of country activities

• Definition of thematic areas

• Analysis of thematic areas

• Selection of thematic areas for detailed analysis

Detailed analysis of thematic areas

• Qualitative analysis

• Quantitative analysis

Objective: Identify best practice policies and their

potential impact on climate change mitigation pre-2020.

Page 3: Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020

© ECOFYS | |

Step 1: Screening current activities

Changing Activity Energy efficiency Renewables Low carbon (other than renewables)

Non-energy

General Strategies and targets: 69%

Electricity

Performance standards

22%

Support schemes (e.g. feed-in

tariff)

49%

Tax exemptions

6%

Carbon pricing schemes 25%

Industry

Strategies

6%

Voluntary agreements

24%

Fuel quota

36%

CCS support schemes

<3%

Regulation

(Not evaluated)

Carbon pricing schemes: 31%

Buildings

Programmes

8%

Product standards and building codes

55%

Tax exemptions

40% Not evaluated

Energy taxes: (Not evaluated)

Transport

Modal shift programmes

14%

Vehicle standards

23%

Direct subsidies and fuel quota

50%

E-mobility programmes

14%

Energy taxes: (Not evaluated)

AFOLU Strategies

28%

Regulations / planning

39%

06/07/2014

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%Scale:

Percentage coverage of climate policies in 38 countries, including the largest emitters, derived from evaluating 1200 policies

Page 4: Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020

© ECOFYS | | 06/07/2014

Step 2: Identification of thematic areas

Support for renewable electricity generation

•High activity rate

•High mitigation potential

•Short term implementation still possible, with long term transformational effect

Light-duty vehicle emissions

•Medium activity rate

•High mitigation potential

•Often cost neutral in the long term; potential to increase ambition till 2020

Energy efficient electric appliances

•High activity rate

•High mitigation potential

•Often cost neutral in the long term; potential to increase ambition till 2020

Methane from fossil fuel production

• Low activity rate

•High mitigation potential

• Low cost option

Page 5: Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020

© ECOFYS | |

Support for renewable electricity generation

Best practice policies analysed

Germany, UK, China, Morocco

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2010 2020Frozen

Technology

2020Reference

2020 Policypotential

(Regional)

2020 Policypotential

(Best

practice)

Em

issio

ns fro

m e

lectr

icity g

enera

tion (

GtC

O2)

Annual emissions intensity trend for electricity production

Germany -2.1%

China -1.7%

UK -2.9%

Morocco -4%

Emissions reduction potential

from regional upscaling of best practice policies

3.1 GtCO2

Common policy design features Market instruments (Feed in tariffs, purchase guarantees); Public sector investment.

06/07/2014

Page 6: Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020

© ECOFYS | |

Light-duty vehicle emissions

Best practice policies analysed

EU, Japan, U.S., China

Annual LDV trends

Fuel economy Emissions

EU +6.5% -1.3%

Japan +3.9% -2.3%

U.S. +4.0% -2.0%

China +6.7% +4.7%

Emissions reduction potential

from regional upscaling of best practice policies

0.8 GtCO2

(Reversing emissions trend for LDVs)

Common policy design features Standards with flexible compliance mechanisms and supporting policies (e.g. fuel taxation).

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2010 2020Frozen

Technology

2020Reference

2020Policies

(Regional)

2020Policies(Best

practice)

Glo

bal LD

V E

mis

sio

ns (

Gt

CO

2)

06/07/2014

Page 7: Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020

© ECOFYS | |

Methane from fossil fuel production (reducing APG flaring)

Best practice policies analysed

Norway, Russia

Russian APG flaring rate

2010 2020 (with policy)

26% 5%

Emissions reduction potential

from upscaling of Russian trends to top-5 flaring countries

164 MtCO2

Common policy design features Permit and license system, requiring plan for gas utilisation.

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2020 FrozenTechnology

2020Reference

2020 PolicyPotential

Top-5

fla

ring c

ountr

ies e

mis

sio

ns (

Mt

CO

2e)

06/07/2014

Page 8: Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020

© ECOFYS | |

Electric appliance energy efficiency

Best practice policies analysed

Japan, South Korea, EU

Annual Household Energy Efficiency trends

Emissions intensity Emissions

EU -1.9% +1.0%

Emissions reduction potential

from upscaling of EU trends to OECD countries

0.56 GtCO2

Common policy design features Standards with support from labelling schemes and tax incentives.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2010 2020 FrozenTechnology

2020Reference

2020 Policypotential

Em

issio

ns fro

m e

lectr

icity d

em

and in r

esid

ential

and c

om

merc

ail s

ecto

r

(Gt

CO

2)

06/07/2014

Page 9: Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020

© ECOFYS | |

Thank you

Öko Institut

Sean Healy

E: [email protected]

Ecofys

Thomas Day

E: [email protected]

ISI Fraunhofer-Institut

Vicki Duscha

E: [email protected]

06/07/2014